An empirical note about estimation and forecasting Latin American Forex returns volatility: the role of long memory and random level shifts components

Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of...     

地方债务治理对银行信贷资金"脱虚向实"的影响——基于国务院"43号文"准自然实验的经验考察

国务院"43号文"的实施,为研究地方债务的治理效果提供了一个准自然实验场景.研究发现:地方债务治理对银行金融资产没有产生影响,但会显著增加银行总贷款、个人贷款和企业贷款,有助于银行信贷资金的"脱虚向实";地方债务治理能显著增加银行实体行业贷款,但不能显著增加银行非实体行业贷款和建筑业贷款.机制检验发现,地方债务治理可以通过降低借款人和借款企业的融资成本,间接性地影响银行信贷资金配置.进一步研究发现,国务院"43号文"实施后,资产质量高的银行倾向于增加企业贷款和实体行业贷款,资产质量低的银行倾向于增加个人贷款;银行规模可以强化地方债务治理对银行贷款增长的促进作用.因此,为促进银行信贷资金的"脱虚向实",应提高地方债务治理水平,强化对银行业务的监管与引导,加强风险管理,保障银行资产质量.     

Stochastic non-smooth envelopment of data for multi-dimensional output

The proposed method of Stochastic Non-smooth Envelopment of Data (StoNED) for measuring efficiency has to date mainly found application in the analysis of production systems which have exactly one output. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of StoNED when a ray production function models a production technology with multi-dimensional input and output. In addition to a general analysis of properties required by a ray production function for StoNED to be applicable, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation in order to evaluate the quality of the frontier and efficiencies estimated by StoNED. The results are compared with those derived via Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). We show that StoNED provides competitive estimates in regard to other methods and especially in regard to the real functional form and efficiency.     

Patterns of Investor-State Dispute Settlement Decisions

This paper examines the pattern of settlements, investor wins and state wins in investor-state dispute settlement cases, focusing on the impact of arbitration rules, the resources and experience of the litigants, the type of treaty breach under investigation, and the pattern of state intervention. Logistic regression results show that settlements are more likely when investors do not disclose their allegations publicly, when the host state has been involved in a greater number of past cases, and when the respondent state has a higher control-of-corruption rating. Panel awards to investors are more likely in cases of alleged direct expropriation and less likely for indirect expropriation. Panel decisions favoring the state increase with higher per capita income and rule-of-law ratings.     

Liking what others “Like”: using Facebook to identify determinants of conformity

In this paper we explore the micro-level determinants of conformity. Members of the social networking service Facebook express positive support to content on the website by clicking a Like button. We set up a natural field experiment to test whether users are more prone to support content if someone else has done so before. To find out to what extent conformity depends on group size and social ties we use three different treatment conditions: (1) one stranger has Liked the content, (2) three strangers have Liked the content, and (3) a friend has Liked the content. The results show that one Like from a single stranger had no impact. However, increasing the size of the influencing group doubled the probability that subjects expressed positive support. Friendship ties were also decisive. People were, on average, four times more likely to press the Like button if a friend, rather than a stranger, had done so before them. The existence of threshold effects in our experiment clearly shows that both group size and social proximity matters when opinions are shaped.     

Mapping global sustainability report scoring: a detailed analysis of Europe and Asia

This study maps the General Reporting Initiative (GRI) relations for a set of global enterprises. Enterprise interrelationships are built using the Mutual Information (MI) of the data reported by enterprises. From the MI topology, we describe interrelationships among the enterprises using chord diagrams to represent the inter- and intra-connectivity between geographical regions and economic sectors globally, by continent and country. Detailed maps are presented for European and Asian regions/sectors, including the relationship between Europe and Asia’s top reporting countries. Our findings reinforce previous research regarding the role of Europe as a driver of sustainability and its influence worldwide. We also determined that Spain is a major player in Europe and that Northern Europe does not have the assumed leading role mentioned in related studies. Eastern Asia is, by far, the leader of the region, and the GRI maps demonstrate the preponderant role of China in the region and the minimal role of India. MI topology maps outline the behavior of the economic sectors, for all the studied regions. Furthermore, a measure that relates the inter- to intra-connections is presented to describe the internal an external relationships among regions/sectors.     

Cuba,Trade Dependency and the GATT/WTO System

Cuba sought economic independence from the U.S. and its reliance on sugar exports after its 1959 revolution, but subsequently developed new dependency relationships. In the meantime, Cuba remained inside the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despite conducting most of its trade outside it. This paper explores the political economy of Cuba’s participation in the GATT and later the World Trade Organization (WTO). Documents show that Cuba sought to use its participation to gain new markets and influence in the developing world. While Cuba has gained little economically from its participation, in recent years it has diversified its exports and trade partners, and its trade interests now align more closely with WTO rules. Economic reforms will be necessary in order for Cuba to benefit.     

Teacher opinions regarding the perception management levels of school administrators

The purpose of this research is to determine the levels and use of perception management by school administrators. The study group consists of teachers working in Private Primary School and Secondary Schools affiliated to the Ministry of National Education in Nicosia, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the 2016–2017 academic year. The sample of the study is composed of 282 teachers representing the universe selected by the method of easy reachable case sampling. As a means of collecting data in the survey, “Personal Information Form” by Kline (An easy guide to factor analysis, Routledge, New York, 1994) and “Manager Perception Management ent Scale” developed by Uylas (Yönetici Alg? Yönetimi Ölçe?i, Türkiye Ölçme Araçlar? Dizini, 2017a, Okul Yöneticilerinin Sosyal-Duygusal E?itim Liderli?i ve Alg? Yönetimine ?li?kin Ö?retmen Görü?leri, T.C. Abant ?zzet Baysal Üniversitesi, E?itim Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Bolu, 2017b) was used. The obtained data were analyzed in an analysis program. In the research, the values of perception management use levels of managers according to teacher opinions were examined. According to the results and comments obtained from the research, some of the proposals developed for researchers and educators working in the field of education management are as follows. Towards practical; trainings can be given on how school administrators can use perception management for successful perception management practices in educational organizations. In interviews to select school administrators, choosing school administrator with high perception management skills can be prioritized. Towards newstudies; including multidimensional evaluation of all elements of educational organizations such as managers, parents and servants in new researches to be conducted and comparison of teachers ‘and administrators’ views. This study has brought out suggestions that can be implemented in other stages of education.