The long-run relationship between private and public savings: An empirical note

This empirical note extends the recent work by Holmes (2006) in examining the long-run relationship between private and public savings in the U.S. over the post-World War II period. Standard Engle-Granger cointegration tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration; however, once allowance is made for an endogenous break in the cointegrating relationship, the weak form of the Ricardian equivalence proposition is supported.     

Sources of time varying return comovements during different economic regimes: evidence from the emerging Indian equity market

We study the economic and non-economic sources of stock return comovements of the emerging Indian equity market and the developed equity markets of the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada and Japan. Our findings show that the probability of extreme comovements in the economic contraction regime is relatively higher than in the economic expansion regime. We show that international interest rates, inflation uncertainty and dividend yields are the main drivers of the asymmetric return comovements. Findings reported in the paper imply that the impact of interest rates and inflation on return comovements could be used for anticipating financial contagion and/or spillover effects. This is particularly critical since during extreme market conditions, the tail return comovements can potentially reveal critical information for active portfolio management.     

Trade with Time Zone Differences: Factor Market Implications

The main purpose of this study is to illustrate, with a simple two‐factor (skilled and unskilled labor) model, how a time‐saving improvement in business‐services trade benefitting from differences in time zones can have an impact on national factor markets. In doing so, we intend to capture the situation where the night‐shift work in one country is replaced by the day‐shift work in another country. In other words, we will show that trade with time zone differences will result in shifts of the relative supplies and demands for skilled labor around the globe.     

Dynamics of capital account and current account in Sri Lanka

This paper enquires the dynamics of current account and capital account in Sri Lanka for the period 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q1 and also examines the role of some policy variables such as exchange rate and interest rate in this dynamics. Estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration followed by error correction representation of the ARDL model have found that current account is caused by capital account and exchange rate, where capital account causes to produce a deficit in current account. In the dynamic adjustment of current account due to exchange rate, an evidence of J-curve phenomenon is noticed. Capital account is neither caused by current account nor by exchange rate but interest rate has a positive impact on it. Robustness of these findings is testified by the vector autoregression model, Wald test of Granger causality followed by an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. These analyses, in addition, establish a negative impact of interest rate on current account. With the best of knowledge this is the first study that reveals the dynamics of current and capital account of Sri Lanka. Such a dynamics is critical from the policy perspective. Policy makers should caution before capital account liberalization.     

Postservice Recovery Customer Satisfaction in Indian Retail Banking: Scale Development and Validation

The construct of postservice customer satisfaction with respect to Indian retail banking has been studied. Furthermore, the development and validation of the postservice recovery customer satisfaction scale in Indian retail banking is detailed. The scale development process was carried out over three stages (item generation, scale purification, scale validation) and comprised of conducting depth interviews and focus groups for item generation and three separate phases of data collection, involving a total of 851 individual respondents. The data provide evidence for face, content, discriminant and convergent validity, dimensionality, reliability, and generalizability of the customer satisfaction scale in Indian retail banking.     

Reform,informal sector,and extortion

Informal economy involving unrecorded, unregistered, extra‐legal activities employs majority of the work force in the developing world. Such extra‐legal existence of informal production is facilitated through extortion by agents of political forces in power. Also, extortion activities themselves constitute an informal segment. Full‐scale general equilibrium consequences of such institutions are rarely discussed in the literature. We develop a well‐specified general equilibrium model to explore the possible consequences of reform. Economic reform may have an expansionary effect on the number of extortionists. Depending on capital mobility and factor intensity assumptions informal output and informal wage may increase.     

The probability,size and uses of remittances from urban to rural areas in India

This paper examines the important determinants of the decision to remit and of the amount remitted by migrants in Delhi to their place of origin. The findings are compared with those obtained for Kenya by Knowles and Anker. The comparative exercise helps us to identify universal patterns of remittance behaviour from those which are time, place and sample specific. The paper also throws light on the validity of infering technological change in agriculture in rural areas from data on uses of remittances.     

Robust Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation for the Nested Error Linear Regression Model

Standard model‐based small area estimates perform poorly in presence of outliers. Sinha & Rao ( 2009 ) developed robust frequentist predictors of small area means. In this article, we present a robust Bayesian method to handle outliers in unit‐level data by extending the nested error regression model. We consider a finite mixture of normal distributions for the unit‐level error to model outliers and produce noninformative Bayes predictors of small area means. Our modelling approach generalises that of Datta & Ghosh ( 1991 ) under the normality assumption. Application of our method to a data set which is suspected to contain an outlier confirms this suspicion, correctly identifies the suspected outlier and produces robust predictors and posterior standard deviations of the small area means. Evaluation of several procedures including the M‐quantile method of Chambers & Tzavidis ( 2006 ) via simulations shows that our proposed method is as good as other procedures in terms of bias, variability and coverage probability of confidence and credible intervals when there are no outliers. In the presence of outliers, while our method and Sinha–Rao method perform similarly, they improve over the other methods. This superior performance of our procedure shows its dual (Bayes and frequentist) dominance, which should make it attractive to all practitioners, Bayesians and frequentists, of small area estimation.