电气继电保护装置的检修和运行维护探讨

在当前社会经济高速运转的时代,电力资源的需求量与日俱增,电力安全问题也越来越受到人们的重视,这就对电气继电保护装置提出了更高的要求,加强继电保护装置的检修和运行维护,可以极大地提升电力系统的运行效率,并保证电力运行的安全性.但是,就目前情况来说,我国电气继电保护装置的运行过程中还是存在一些故障问题,需要采取措施加以改进.基于此,本文将围绕电气继电保护装置运行中的常见故障展开分析,然后对继电保护装置的检修方法以及运行维护措施进行了详细的探讨与研究,以供相关人员参考.     

失败学习对企业绩效的影响机制研究

已有文献认为失败学习对企业绩效具有重要作用，但失败学习通过何种途径促进企业绩效提升的研究并不完善。基于失败学习理论，引入资源拼凑和机会识别作为中介变量，构建失败学习影响企业绩效的多路径模型，探索失败学习对企业绩效的驱动路径及内在机理。实证结果表明：失败学习对企业绩效具有显著积极作用，资源拼凑和机会识别分别在失败学习与企业绩效之间起中介作用，资源拼凑和机会识别在失败学习对企业绩效驱动过程中存在链式中介作用，战略柔性能够强化资源拼凑与企业绩效之间的关系，并正向调节资源拼凑的中介作用。研究结论拓展了失败学习对企业绩效的影响路径，对企业复苏和成长具有重要启示。     

Structural estimation of behavioral heterogeneity

We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit‐maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Owing to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heterogeneous strategies. We exploit a thin set—a small sub‐population—to point identify this nonlinear model, and estimate the structural parameters using extended method of moments. Based on the estimated parameters, the model produces return time series that emulate the moments of the real data. These results are robust across different sample periods and estimation methods.     

Stochastic Payments per Claim Incurred

We propose a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the payments per claim incurred (PPCI) algorithm. Based on the PPCI algorithm, two submodels are proposed for the number of reported claims run-off triangle and the PPCI run-off triangle, respectively. The model for the claims amount is then derived from the two submodels under the assumption of independence between the number of incurred claims and the PPCI. The joint likelihood of the number of reported claims and claims amount is derived. The posterior distribution of parameters is estimated via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling approach. The Bayesian estimator, the process variance, the estimation variance, and the predictive distribution of unpaid claims are also studied. The proposed model and the HMC inference engine are applied to to an empirical claims dataset of the WorkSafe Victoria to estimate the unpaid claims of the doctor benefit. The Bayesian modeling procedure is further refined by including a preliminary generalized linear model analysis. The results are compared with those in a PwC report. An alternative model is compared with the proposed model based on various information criteria.     

企业上市、专利突击与经营绩效——基于创业板上市公司的经验证据

以2009-2018年中国创业板公司为样本,考察公司上市前的专利突击现象,检验专利突击行为对专利质量和经营业绩的影响.研究发现:第一,创业板上市公司IPO前存在明显的专利突击现象,具体表现为专利申请数量在上市前激增,在上市后增长停滞;第二,创业板公司专利突击行为降低了专利质量和上市后的长期经营业绩;第三,相较于发明专利,非发明专利的上市前突击现象更明显;第四,2014年证监会关于创业板上市公司在招股说明书中对专利信息披露的有关规定改变了公司专利申请策略,申请时间前移,上市前已申请但未授权的专利占比降低.最后,企业突击申请专利会使投资者高估公司价值,从而损害投资者利益.研究结论有利于理解我国"专利泡沫"现象的制度诱因,对完善创业板制度和实现注册制转型具有借鉴意义.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

互联网金融规制与市场有效性改善*——来自中国网络借贷行业的证据

中国的互联网金融经历了一个先创新发展后监管规制的过程，本文通过对网络借贷行业的实证研究，分析监管规则的出台实施对新型互联网融资市场有效性的影响。实证结果表明，网络借贷平台资金的银行存管、持有ICP证等强制性规定缓解了投资者、平台企业与借款人之间的信息不对称，对克服早期平台间通过竞相承诺高回报率来吸引投资者导致的“柠檬市场”问题、对解决网贷市场上缺乏平台风险性高低有效信号的问题都起到了正向作用，有助于互联网融资市场的有效性提高。     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

Catch Animal Spirits in Auction: Evidence from New Zealand Property Market

Following the animal spirits theory proposed by Akerlof and Shiller, this article contributes to behavior economics by investigating the possibility of using auction sales data to capture evidence of irrational exuberance in the housing market. Using the monthly percentages of residential property auction sales for Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch regions in New Zealand from 2006 to 2015, and the exuberance testing method proposed by Phillips, Shi and Yu, we find that animal spirits have been developing in the Auckland housing market since 2013, but not in other regions. When compared to the results based on price‐to‐rent ratios, auction sales provide more meaningful results for identifying market‐wide irrational exuberance at an early stage. The causality test on price‐to‐rent ratios and auction sales volume shows that asset prices and animal spirits influence each other in the short run. In the long run, prices have significant effect on animal spirits, but not vice versa.