Will It Spread or Not? The Effects of Social Influences and Network Topology on Innovation Diffusion

Innovation diffusion theory suggests that consumers differ concerning the number of contacts they have and the degree and the direction to which social influences determine their choice to adopt. To test the impacts of these factors on innovation diffusion, in particular the occurrence of hits and flops, a new agent‐based model for innovation diffusion is introduced. This model departs from existing percolation models by using more realistic agents (both individual preferences and social influence) and more realistic networks (scale free with cost constraints). Furthermore, it allows consumers to weight the links they have, and it allows links to be directional. In this way this agent‐based model tests the effect of VIPs who can have a relatively large impact on many consumers. Results indicate that markets with high social influence are more uncertain concerning the final success of the innovation and that it is more difficult for the innovation to take off. As consumers affect each other to adopt or not at the beginning of the diffusion, the new product has more difficulties to reach the critical mass that is necessary for the product to take off. In addition, results of the simulation experiments show under which conditions highly connected agents (VIPs) determine the final diffusion of the innovation. Although hubs are present in almost any network of consumers, their roles and their effects in different markets can be very different. Using a scale‐free network with a cut‐off parameter for the maximum number of connections a hub can have, the simulation results show that when hubs have limits to the maximum number of connections the innovation diffusion is severely hampered, and it becomes much more uncertain. However, it is found that the effect of VIPs on the diffusion curve is often overestimated. In fact when the influence of VIPs on the decision making of the consumers is strengthened compared with the influence of normal friends, the diffusion of the innovation is not substantially facilitated. It can be concluded that the importance of VIPs resides in their capacity to inform many consumers and not in a stronger persuasive power.     

A spatial interaction model for deriving joint space maps of bundle compositions and market segments from pick-any/J data: An application to new product options

We propose an approach for deriving joint space maps of bundle compositions and market segments from three-way (e.g., consumers x product options/benefits/features x usage situations/scenarios/time periods) pick-any/J data. The proposed latent structure multidimensional scaling procedure simultaneously extracts market segment and product option positions in a joint space map such that the closer a product option is to a particlar segment, the higher the likelihood of its being chosen by that segment. A segment-level threshold parameter is estimated that spatially delineates the bundle of product options that are predicted to be chosen by each segment. Estimates of the probability of each consumer belonging to the derived segments are simultaneously obtained. Explicit treatment of product and consumer characteristics are allowed via optional model reparameterizations of the product option locations and segment memberships. We illustrate the use of the proposed approach using an actual commercial application involving pick-any/J data gathered by a major hi-tech firm for some 23 advanced technological options for new automobiles.     

Marketing perspectives on digital business models: A framework and overview of the special issue

Strong digital developments are changing markets, and firms may adopt a digital business model to deal with these developments. This special issue focuses on such digital business models. In this editorial, we discuss the relevance of digital business models, propose a conceptual framework, and discuss how digital business models affect firms, firm performance, and markets. We introduce the papers in this issue and show how they each fit within the conceptual framework. We discuss four important areas for future research.     

Do vendors benefit from promotions in a multi-vendor loyalty program?

The growing trend of networking in recent years has led to an increase in number of loyalty program partnerships, most notably multi-vendor loyalty programs (MVLP). In an MVLP (as in other types of LPs), cardholders frequently receive promotional mailings intended to increase sales at the participating vendors. This study examines individual vendor and joint (multiple vendors) promotions on the sales performance of five main vendors within an MVLP. Findings of the study indicate low responsiveness of cardholders to LP-induced promotions. The responsiveness may be improved if multiple communication channels are used jointly to present an individual-vendor promotion. Moreover, this is one of the first empirical studies to investigate potential networking benefits of coalitions in an MVLP. Empirical evidence of coalition benefits of promotions is lacking, because we find neither stronger effects for joint-relative to individual promotions nor significant spillover effects of promotions across vendors (i.e., cross-vendor effects). The current study offers potential explanations for these findings.     

Generalizations on consumer innovation adoption: A meta-analysis on drivers of intention and behavior

Previous research has shown that consumer intentions to adopt innovations are often poor predictors of adoption behavior. An important reason for this may be that the evaluative criteria consumers use in both stages of the adoption process weigh differently. Using construal level theory, we develop expectations on the influence of innovation characteristics across the intention and behavior stages of the adoption process. Using meta-analysis, we derive generalizations on drivers of intentions and actual innovation adoption behavior. The results show important differences across both stages. Consumers show higher levels of adoption intention for innovations that are more complex, better match their needs, and involve lower uncertainty. However, consumers are found to actually adopt innovations with less complexity and higher relative advantages. Adopter demographics are found to explain little variance in adoption intention and behavior, whereas adopter psychographics are found to be influential in both stages. These findings have implications for innovation adoption theory, for managers involved in new product and service marketing, and for future research on innovation adoption.     

Country and consumer segmentation: multi-level latent class analysis of financial product ownership

The financial services sector has internationalized over the last few decades. Important differences and similarities in financial behavior can be anticipated between both consumers within a particular country and those living in different countries. For companies in this market, the appropriate choice between strategic options and the resulting international performance may critically depend on the cross-national market structure of the various financial products. Insight into country segments and international consumer segments based on domain-specific behavioral variables will therefore be of key strategic importance. We present a multi-level latent class framework for obtaining simultaneously such country and consumer segments. In an empirical study, we apply this methodology and several alternative modeling approaches to data on ownership of eight financial products. Information is available for 15 European countries, with a sample size of about 1000 consumers per country. We find that both country segments and consumer segments are highly interpretable. Also, consumer segmentation is related to demographic variables such as age and income. Our conclusions feature implications, both academic and managerial, and directions for future research.     

Evaluating the impact of VAT-free promotion: the role of loyalty program membership and category characteristics

This study examines the impact of value-added tax (VAT)–free promotions on sales performance. VAT-free promotions are a recently adopted form of price promotions where consumers are exempted from paying the VAT amount across almost all products in the assortment during a limited number of days. They are typically organized once per year and surrounded by a large amount of media attention from the involved retailer. To test the effects of this promotion on store and category sales, and investigate the differences between loyalty program (LP) members and non-LP members, the authors use scanner data from a Dutch durable goods retailer across a range of categories. The results show that VAT-free promotions positively impact store performance. Moreover, the findings indicate that more non-LP members are attracted to the store and that they increase the amount they spend in the store. While LP members also spend more in the store, this increase in shopping basket size does not compensate for the significant drop in the number of LP members that visit the store, leading to an overall decrease in sales coming from LP members during VAT-free days. We furthermore find that the positive effect of VAT-free promotions for non-LP members (rather than LP members) generalizes across all investigated categories. Our results provide key insights for retailers and direct marketers with regard to the effectiveness of VAT-free promotions in order to strategically segment the customer base.

     

Indicators of opinion leadership in customer networks: self-reports and degree centrality

In this paper, we assess two alternative indicators of opinion leadership, self-reported opinion leadership and degree centrality, on the same dataset. We also investigate the interaction effect of these two indicators and the social network environment on opinion leadership. We use social network and survey data from the mobile telecom industry to analyze opinion leadership in smartphone adoption. We find that degree centrality indicates opinion leadership, but that self-reported opinion leadership indicates opinion leadership only under the right social circumstances. In case of weak to moderate network ties, the effect of self-reported opinion leadership is not significant. However, self-reported opinion leaders more effectively influence their strong ties. This study sheds light on indicators of opinion leadership and provides insights for managers to improve their social marketing campaigns.     

Reward redemption effects in a loyalty program when customers choose how much and when to redeem

The redemption of loyalty program (LP) rewards has an important impact on LP members' behavior, particularly on purchase behavior before and after redeeming a reward. However, little is known about the interplay between members' purchase and redemption behavior when members are not pressured with point expiration and they choose for themselves when and how much to redeem. In this context, the effects of redemption are not straightforward, as little additional effort is required from an LP member to obtain the reward. Analyzing the behavior of 3094 members in such an LP, we find that the mere decision to redeem a reward significantly enhances purchase behavior before and after the redemption event, even when members redeem just a fraction of their accumulated points. Conceptually, we refer to this enhancement as the redemption momentum, which is an alternative and novel explanation of the existence of pre-reward effects that do not depend on points-pressure. In addition to the overall impact of redemption on purchases, prior purchase behavior also enhances redemption decisions. Finally, we find a number of moderating effects on purchase and redemption behavior that derive from the length of LP membership, age, income and direct mailings. Our study's most important managerial implication is that firms should avoid imposing point expiry and/or binding thresholds in order to enhance members' purchase behavior.