我国现代农业发展的现状、问题与对策研究

近年来,在科技支撑和制度支持的背景下,我国的现代农业得到了长足发展,取得了举世瞩目的成绩。但是在发展过程中也出现了很多问题,例如:与发达国家相比,科技装备相对落后,现代农业人才严重短缺,金融支持力度不足,市场机制不完善等,因此深入研究现代农业具有重要的现实意义。文章首先对何为现代农业进行了详细阐述;然后分析了我国现代农业发展的现状;再次分析了我国现代农业发展中存在的主要问题;最后提出了切实可行的对策,为现代农业发展提供一些参考,促进现代农业科学发展。     

失败学习对企业绩效的影响机制研究

已有文献认为失败学习对企业绩效具有重要作用，但失败学习通过何种途径促进企业绩效提升的研究并不完善。基于失败学习理论，引入资源拼凑和机会识别作为中介变量，构建失败学习影响企业绩效的多路径模型，探索失败学习对企业绩效的驱动路径及内在机理。实证结果表明：失败学习对企业绩效具有显著积极作用，资源拼凑和机会识别分别在失败学习与企业绩效之间起中介作用，资源拼凑和机会识别在失败学习对企业绩效驱动过程中存在链式中介作用，战略柔性能够强化资源拼凑与企业绩效之间的关系，并正向调节资源拼凑的中介作用。研究结论拓展了失败学习对企业绩效的影响路径，对企业复苏和成长具有重要启示。     

Structural estimation of behavioral heterogeneity

We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit‐maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Owing to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heterogeneous strategies. We exploit a thin set—a small sub‐population—to point identify this nonlinear model, and estimate the structural parameters using extended method of moments. Based on the estimated parameters, the model produces return time series that emulate the moments of the real data. These results are robust across different sample periods and estimation methods.     

Stochastic Payments per Claim Incurred

We propose a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the payments per claim incurred (PPCI) algorithm. Based on the PPCI algorithm, two submodels are proposed for the number of reported claims run-off triangle and the PPCI run-off triangle, respectively. The model for the claims amount is then derived from the two submodels under the assumption of independence between the number of incurred claims and the PPCI. The joint likelihood of the number of reported claims and claims amount is derived. The posterior distribution of parameters is estimated via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling approach. The Bayesian estimator, the process variance, the estimation variance, and the predictive distribution of unpaid claims are also studied. The proposed model and the HMC inference engine are applied to to an empirical claims dataset of the WorkSafe Victoria to estimate the unpaid claims of the doctor benefit. The Bayesian modeling procedure is further refined by including a preliminary generalized linear model analysis. The results are compared with those in a PwC report. An alternative model is compared with the proposed model based on various information criteria.     

事业单位财务档案管理体系建设研究

随着事业单位经济活动不断拓展,单位管理要与时俱进,不断创新,财务档案与经济活动息息相关,是事业单位管理的重要抓手,加强财务档案管理是提高事业单位经济管理能力的重要途径。文章立足事业单位,针对其管理特点,结合国家政策法规,详细介绍财务档案管理的必要性及管理现状,并通过管理实践,展示了财务档案管理流程和方法,是理论与实践的有机结合,对事业单位加强财务档案管理,提升整体管理水平具有重要借鉴意义。     

资本回报率、人力资本投资与收入不平等——基于Galor-Zeira模型的扩展

资本回报率下降对人力资本投资、收入不平等程度有较大影响。本文将可变资本回报率加入Galor-Zeira模型,理论推导发现:收入不平等陷阱并非不可逾越的障碍。当技能劳动力工资高于受教育固定成本时,随着资本回报率下降,接受教育的遗赠临界水平将降低,更多家庭将发现投资人力资本是有利的,稳态的技能劳动力比例将提高。在当前资本回报率下降的大背景下,提高技能劳动力工资、降低受教育成本、对教育贷款实施财政减免优惠、为农村中等教育支出减负和提升农村教育质量、倡导节俭和重视遗赠的文化氛围在长期都有助于提高技能劳动力比重以及缓和收入不平等。     

企业上市、专利突击与经营绩效——基于创业板上市公司的经验证据

以2009-2018年中国创业板公司为样本,考察公司上市前的专利突击现象,检验专利突击行为对专利质量和经营业绩的影响.研究发现:第一,创业板上市公司IPO前存在明显的专利突击现象,具体表现为专利申请数量在上市前激增,在上市后增长停滞;第二,创业板公司专利突击行为降低了专利质量和上市后的长期经营业绩;第三,相较于发明专利,非发明专利的上市前突击现象更明显;第四,2014年证监会关于创业板上市公司在招股说明书中对专利信息披露的有关规定改变了公司专利申请策略,申请时间前移,上市前已申请但未授权的专利占比降低.最后,企业突击申请专利会使投资者高估公司价值,从而损害投资者利益.研究结论有利于理解我国"专利泡沫"现象的制度诱因,对完善创业板制度和实现注册制转型具有借鉴意义.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Perceptions of the benefits of the A3 planner in facilitating project-based learning in accounting education

This paper evaluates ways of instilling project management skills into accounting-based learning by the use of an iterative A3 planner to plan, monitor and review assignment progress. The application of an A3 planner to facilitate a project-based learning (PBL) group assignment in undergraduate accounting education has been critically evaluated in terms of both the student and tutor experience. The study uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitative data assisting exploration of perceptions were collected through 100 undergraduate students. A series of focus group discussions were carried out to investigate students’ engagement and tutors’ teaching experiences regarding the adoption of the A3 planner. The results suggest that the A3 planner promotes active planning and effective management of a PBL group assignment. It makes students’ thought processes more visible thereby facilitating and enhancing the tutoring/mentoring process. Moreover a more interactive and transparent approach by doing assignment via the use of an iterative A3 planner has ensured more feedback points and action based efficiency in the doing approach for learners.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.