Privatization and Its Benefits: Theory and Evidence

Privatization has been a key component of structural reformprograms in both developed and developing economies. The aimof such programs is to achieve higher microeconomic efficiencyand foster economic growth, as well as reduce public sectorborrowing requirements through the elimination of unnecessarysubsidies. Microeconomic theory tells us that incentive andcontracting problems create inefficiencies due to public ownership,given that managers of state-owned enterprises pursue objectivesthat differ from those of private firms (political view) andface less monitoring (management view). Not only are the managers'objectives distorted, but the budget constraints they face arealso softened. The soft-budget constraint emerges from the factthat bankruptcy is not a credible threat to public managers,for it is in the central government's own interest to bail themout in case of financial distress. Empirical evidence showsa robust corroboration of theoretical implications: privatizationincreases profitability and efficiency in both competitive andmonopolistic sectors. Full privatization has a greater impactthan partial privatization and monopolistic sectors show anincrease in profitability that is above the component explainedby increases in productivity, which reflects their market power.From the macroeconomic perspective, no conclusive evidence canbe drawn, but the trends are favorable. (JEL D21, D61, D62,E65)     

如何利用CDS市场数据拟合不同存活率模型

信贷衍生工具评估的关键要素是违约时间模型。此类事件隐含的不确定性通过违约概率分布（也称为违约期限结构）模型获取,此模型对发行人在未来给定时间间隔内的违约概率进行建模。违约概率估算具有不同的类型：历史违约概率采用公司的信用等级转换或评分模型进行估算;结构模型综合市场以及资产负债表信息来计算违约概率;风险中性概率采用简化模型通过单纯的市场数据进行推导。     

Why HIV/AIDS prevention strategies fail in Botswana: considering discourses of sexuality

A phenomenological study that was carried out among five ethnic groups of Botswana revealed the importance of taking into account culturally situated sexual realities when prevention policies for HIV/AIDS are considered and implemented. Furthermore the study threw light on the ineffectiveness of the current national HIV/AIDS prevention strategy of ‘Abstain, Be faithful, or use a Condom’ (ABC), a strategy that has been externally imposed on communities, without sufficiently engaging the behavioural practices and values of the communities themselves. This paper therefore advocates educational strategies for HIV/AIDS prevention that take into consideration localised social relations and value systems. Devising policies that engage with the discourses that are dominant in each ethnic group can make a difference in a country that has been hard-hit by the HIV/AIDS epidemic.     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.