Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage

This paper develops a risk-based capital pricing model for credit insurance portfolios held by a vulnerable insurer. The model accounts for business cycles using a two-state Markov switching model, and allows for dynamic leverage adjustment by the insured firms. The new proposed model, which incorporates risk-based capital practice, is better for both the insurer and the insured firms. Based on the risk-adjusted performance metric, we found that the insurer is better off insuring short- and medium-term loans in expansion and steady states, while it is better off backing both short- and long-term loans in recessions. Our results also emphasize that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly impairs the creditworthiness of the insurer and insured firms.     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

Financial guarantors’ executive compensation,charter value and risk-taking

Financial guarantees have been extensively used recently as part of rescue packages to bail out troubled institutions and governments around the world. We propose a new incentive compensation model for studying agency conflict between the shareholders and the manager of a typical financial guarantor. In our model, the manager chooses the guarantor's risk level, with disutility to reduce risk (i.e., reducing the risk of the guarantor incurs a direct cost to the manager). Moral hazard causes the manager to select a level of risk that is higher than the level chosen in an otherwise first-best environment with no conflict of interest between the shareholders and the manager. However, in our proposed framework, charter value plays a self-disciplining role on the manager's appetite for risk, therefore it helps mitigate the extent of the deviation from first best with agency conflict found previously (e.g., 0055, 0015 and 0020). This suggests that researchers should study charter value, managerial compensation and risk decisions within a unified framework and not separately, as all studies have done in the past.     

Does FDI improve economic development in North African countries?

This article examines the relationship between FDI inflows and welfare improvement in North African countries. Using net per capita FDI inflows and the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Index as the principal variables, our analyses confirm the positive and strongly significant relationship between net FDI inflows and welfare improvement in North Africa, although we do find significant differences among the countries in the region. This relationship holds even after we control for government size, country indebtedness, macroeconomic instability, infrastructural development, institutional quality, political risk, openness to trade, education and financial market development. Hence, at the aggregate level, FDI contributes to economic growth in North Africa, in turn generating additional revenues for governments and populations in the region through fiscal policies and jobs creation. We also found that FDI received by countries in the region are mainly concentrated in very few industries (particularly extractive petroleum, services and tourism, construction and utilities); relatively fewer of these investments are directed towards the nonextractive primary industries, which are pro-poor sectors and highly labour intensive, or the manufacturing sector, with a high potential for spillover effects in the economy. This lack of diversification of FDI received in the region’s economies in part explains the differences observed in the link between FDI and welfare in these countries. It is therefore essential for governments in the region to continue investing in social infrastructures while improving the quality of their institutions and their governance; doing so will probably help avoid the type of unrest we have witnessed recently.     

How do natural resource endowment and institutional quality influence the nexus between external indebtedness and welfare in Africa?

Resource-rich African countries are often saddled with high external indebtedness. Yet, their management of resource endowment, a logical source of debt repayment, also remains a challenge, alongside their characteristic weak institutions. We investigate the relationship between external indebtedness and welfare whilst considering the pervasive influence of both natural resource rents and the quality of institutions. Using a two-stage analysis, we find that the quality of institutions, mineral- and oil-resource rents negatively affect indebtedness, while rents of aggregated natural resources, which include agricultural commodities, increase indebtedness. In the second stage, we find that welfare is enhanced by the quality of institutions, mineral- and oil-resource rents. These sets of results are interestingly conditional on the degree of resource endowment and the income level of countries, alongside the interesting effects of external indebtedness on welfare, both of which, importantly, nuance past results on the “resource curse”. Furthermore, the proxy for welfare matters: the human development index proxy reflects more the theoretical expectations of unsustainable indebtedness on welfare, than does the GDP per capita alternative. These and other results of our paper, which hold useful policy guides for African countries, are robust to alternative estimation techniques and other checks.     

Incentives and Voluntary Investment in Employer Shares

Using a partial equilibrium model, this paper makes a first attempt to provide an explanation based on rational behaviour for the basic big puzzle of why workers have large holdings of the shares of their employer in their defined contribution (DC) pension plans. The primary explanations in the literature seem to be behavioural ones that involve sub‐optimal behaviour. This paper attempts to see how far a standard optimizing setting in a principal–agent type framework can go in explaining the same phenomenon. It uses an incentive approach involving two agents, senior managers and workers to show how portfolio weights can be voluntarily shifted away from what would be first best in the absence of an incentive problem.     

Risk-Based Capital and Credit Insurance Portfolios

This paper analyzes the risk-management practices of a vulnerable credit insurer by studying the effects of time-varying correlations, asset risks and loan maturities on the risk-based capital that backs credit insurance portfolios. Since asset correlations may change over a business cycle, we have analyzed these effects by means of a one-factor Gaussian stochastic model as part of an extended contingent claims analysis. Our results show the need to account for cyclical changes to correlations in the pricing of credit insurance. When compared with the reserve of risk-based capital recommended by the Basel II Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, our model provides a better capital buffer against extreme credit losses, especially in times of recession and/or in a risky business environment. Using a risk-adjusted performance metric (RAPM), we find insurers perform better when insuring relatively short-term loans. We also make several policy recommendations on creating a reserve of risk-based capital to protect against possible loan losses.     

FDI and Financial Market Development in Africa

The literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial market development (FMD) and economic growth focuses mainly on two aspects: the relationship between FDI and economic growth, and the role played by FMD in that linkage. The literature is almost silent on the relationship and the direction of causality between FDI and FMD. Although it has been established that FDI contributes more to growth in countries with a more developed financial market, it is not clear how FDI and FMD interact with each other. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap in the African context. Particularly, in Africa, where stock markets experience low liquidity and less transparency, FDI can be an impetus for financial market reforms and serve as a mechanism to improve the transparency and the depth of the financial markets. Also, well‐functioning financial markets can help channel foreign investments more efficiently into productive sectors, and therefore create more value for investors, hence making the countries more attractive to FDI. In short, both FDI and FMD will impact each other simultaneously, which is confirmed by our findings. We document a bidirectional causality between FDI and FMD. Furthermore, the multivariate regression results of the system of simultaneous equations also confirm the positive relationship between FDI and FMD in Africa. We also find that FDI contributes to economic growth in Africa after controlling for endogeneity between FDI, FMD and economic growth.