A reduced PDE method for European option pricing under multi-scale,multi-factor stochastic volatility

The number of tailor-made hybrid structured products has risen more prominently to fit each investor’s preferences and requirements as they become more diversified. The structured products entail synthetic derivatives such as combinations of bonds and/or stocks conditional on how they are backed up by underlying securities, stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates or exchanges rates. The complexity of these multi-asset structures yields lots of difficulties of pricing the products. Because of the complexity, Monte-Carlo simulation is a possible choice to price them but it may not produce stable Greeks leading to a trouble in hedging against risks. In this light, it is desirable to use partial differential equations with relevant analytic and numerical techniques. Even if the partial differential equation method would generate stable security prices and Greeks for single asset options, however, it may result in the curse of dimensionality when pricing multi-asset derivatives. In this study, we make the best use of multi-scale nature of stochastic volatility to lift the curse of dimensionality for up to three asset cases. Also, we present a transformation formula by which the pricing group parameters required for the multi-asset options in illiquid market can be calculated from the underlying market parameters.     

Sources of fluctuations in hours worked for Canada,Germany, Japan and the U.S.: a sign restriction VAR approach

This study empirically examines the sources of fluctuations in hours worked in Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.S. It is particularly motivated by Galí’s (1999) VAR study, which demonstrates that a positive technology shock reduces hours worked, at least in the short run. However, in the present study, a technology shock is identified without recourse to Galí’s long-run restriction, which has been subject to active controversy. Furthermore, this study uncovers other important sources of fluctuations in hours worked to reflect the concern, raised by numerous studies, that technology shocks leave most variations in hours worked unexplained. Specifically, there are six shocks underlying our model, and they are identified using a set of sign restrictions. The empirical results confirm that in all four countries, a positive technology shock significantly reduces hours worked. This technology shock, along with labor supply and demand shocks, accounts for most of the short-term variations in hours worked. As the forecasting horizon increases, technology and demand shocks become less important, whereas labor supply shocks contribute to explaining the bulk of long-run variations in hours worked. Finally, the empirical relevance of Galí’s long-run identification restriction is tested and the results are related to those obtained using the sign restriction model.     

Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G‐7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach

This paper estimates structural vector autoregression models of output, the real exchange rate and trade balance for the group of seven leading advanced economies (G‐7). Unlike previous studies, we do not impose long‐run purchasing power parity as an identifying assumption; instead, the shocks underlying the model are structurally identified using a set of theory‐consistent sign restrictions. Empirical results show that nominal shocks account for most of the long‐run variability in trade balances across the G‐7 countries. We are able to attribute this finding to long‐run movements in the real exchange rate, as the real exchange rate is significantly affected by nominal shocks in the long run.     

Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables

This paper considers structural models with both I(1) and I(0) variables. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We classify the shocks as (P1,P0) and (T1,T0), where P/T distinguishes permanent/transitory, while 1/0 means they are attached to structural equations with either I(1) or I(0) variables as their ‘dependent’ variable. We show that P0 shocks can affect cointegration analysis and provide a formula to compute the permanent component if they are present. Finally, we reformulate a well‐known empirical structural vector autoregression showing the impact of P0 shocks when there are just long‐run parametric and sign restrictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse

This paper shows that the "price wars during booms" logic of Rotemberg and Saloner ( American Economic Review , vol. 76, 1986, 390–407) provides an explanation of contagious currency crises. The idea is as follows. When a group of countries relies on exports to a common foreign market, pressures for competitive devaluations arise. In response, competing exporters peg their exchange rates to the currency of their export market. However, it must be in each country's self-interest to adhere to its peg, and a common adverse external shock can make an existing (implicitly) cooperative arrangement unenforceable. Maintaining the arrangement requires a collective devaluation that reduces the unilateral incentive to devalue.     

Private and Givernment Investment: A Study of Three OECD Countries

This paper examines the relationship between private investment and government spending in Australia, Britain and the United States. Since all time series data are stationary in first difference and cointegrated, these series are represented by an error correction model. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to investigate the effects of government spending on private investment. Generally the empirical results provide limited support for "crowding out" effects of government investment on private investment. The rate of interest and the corporate profit ability showed significant effects on private investment in two out of three cases. [E62, E63]     

Presentation Matters: Comparison of Cognitive Effects of DTC Prescription Drug Advergames,Websites, and Print Ads

Applying limited cognitive capacity theory, this study examined the cognitive effects of direct-to-consumer (DTC) advergames in comparison to those of print ads and websites. The results revealed consumers’ memories of the advertised drug brand and information about the drug and the disease it treats was the lowest in the advergame condition and highest in print. For the content elements that were centrally integrated into the advergame, however, consumer recall was the highest in the advergame condition. In addition, differential memory decay was found across media types. Memory decay was greater in the print ad condition than the other media conditions.     

Multinational corporate website strategies and influencing factors: A comparison of US and Korean corporate websites

This study, using a content analysis method, explored whether and to what extent multinational corporate websites targeting different markets are standardized. It also tested three organizational factors – country of origin, company size, and product type – for their potential influence on the level of corporate website standardization. A sample of 52 top US-based multinational companies and 52 Korea-based multinational companies was drawn and a total of 104 pairs of websites for these companies were content-analyzed. Overall, the degree of website standardization was not significantly different between companies based in the two countries. The results suggest that both US and Korean multinational corporations tend to maintain their websites in a similar way when targeting the home and foreign markets. Among the three organizational factors, only product type – B2B versus B2C products and durables versus non-durables – was found to be significantly associated with the level of website standardization. This study makes important contributions to the research literature by offering new information on the current state of multinational corporate website strategies and advancing our knowledge about international marketing communications on the Internet and influencing factors.     

The ‘trilemma’ hypothesis and policy implications for Fiji

This paper examines the trilemma constraint for Fiji; that is, we investigate how trilemma policy variables were used to address policy trade‐offs among the three objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary autonomy, and financial openness. Fiji makes an interesting case because of its policy orientation towards a stable exchange rate and adequate foreign reserves. Our results suggest that the trilemma constraint is binding for Fiji and policy priority is given to exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, while less emphasis is placed on financial market openness. We also find that the actual policy levels do not deviate substantially from optimal levels, which evidences that Fiji's policy management has been efficient under the trilemma constraint. Finally, we also study the effects of various trilemma policy combinations and foreign reserve holdings on output growth and inflation.     

Computation of Multivariate Barrier Crossing Probability and its Applications in Credit Risk Models

Abstract

In this paper we consider computational methods of finding exit probabilities for a class of multivariate diffusion processes. Although there is an abundance of results for one-dimensional diffusion processes, for multivariate processes one has to rely on approximations or simulation methods. We adopt a Large Deviations approach to approximate barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian Bridge. We use this approach in conjunction with simulation methods to develop an efficient method of obtaining barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian motion. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that our method works better than other existing methods. We mainly focus on a three-dimensional process, but our framework can be extended to higher dimensions. We present two applications of the proposed method in credit risk modeling. First, we show that we can efficiently estimate the default probabilities of several correlated credit risky entities. Second, we use this method to efficiently price a credit default swap (CDS) with several correlated reference entities. In a conventional approach one normally adopts an arbitrary copula to capture dependency among counterparties. The method we propose allows us to incorporate the instantaneous variance-covariance structure of the underlying process into the CDS prices.