Determinants of the ARM share of national and regional lending

We model the ARM share of mortgage lending and provide several unique contributions to the mortgage choice literature. First, we motivate the use of the price spread between fixed- and adjustable-rate credit as a regressor by constraining the effect of FRM and ARM prices to be symmetric and show that the data support this restriction. Second, our data span a far longer time period (six years) than previous research. Third, we estimate separate share equations by region, allowing us to contrast geographic variation in ARM shares. Fourth, we examine the effect of convertible ARMs—which became prevalent in mid-1987—on overall ARM lending.     

Seasonal Variation in Cost-of-Funds at Thrift Institutions

The purpose of this note is threefold. First, in addition to the well-known seasonal pattern to the eleventh-district cost-of-funds (COF), we document a twelve-month seasonal in the national median COF. Second, we demonstrate that the cause of seasonality in each of these COF series is due to the maladjustment of length-of-month effects. In particular, the eleventh-district COF is biased upwards in relatively short months while the national median is biased downward. Third, we show that the popular partial adjustment model for modeling the COF is misspecified.     

On the determinants of yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and Treasury securities

Yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and U.S. Treasury securities may reflect differences in taxation, phenomena affecting relative supply and demand, and compensation for default, call, and marketability risks on mortgage instruments. Our research empirically models differences in yields between pass-throughs and comparable-maturity Treasuries. We find that interest-rate volatility and the term structure of rates, factors often cited in the mortgage pricing literature as affecting the mortgage call premium, are the primary determinants of movements in these spreads. Moreover, these effects have grown in importance in recent years as exercise of the prepayment option has increased. We also find evidence that liquidity and credit concerns affect the pricing of pass-through securities.     

Susan Wharton Gates: Days of Slaughter

Business Economics -     

Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate

This paper employs new census vacancy rate data to analyze the price-adjustment mechanism for rental housing. The study extends previous research on this topic, which provided conflicting evidence concerning the traditional theory of rental housing market adjustment (see Smith [10] , [11] ; DeLeeuw and Ekanem [2] ; Eubank and Sirmans [4] ; and Rosen and Smith [8] ). Cross-section and time-series data are pooled to estimate natural vacancy rates for sixteen United States cities for the 1981–85 period. The analysis further explores the determinants of variation in natural vacancy rates across those metropolitan areas.     

Housing preferences during the pandemic: effect on home price,rent, and inflation measurement

Business Economics - With shelter comprising a one-third weight in the Consumer Price Index, an accurate measure of rent change is essential for determining factors affecting inflation measurement,...     

Determinants of the ARM Share of FHA and Conventional Lending

Loan-choice research has generally examined the determinants of fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) versus ARM lending in the single-family conventional market. Little attention has been paid to the significant differences in ARM lending between the GSE conforming and jumbo markets, as well as differences in the FHA market. For example, the ARM share of jumbo originations is generally two to three times that of the conforming market. This article extends past analysis by examining the determinants of ARM market share in the conventional conforming, jumbo, and FHA markets. Mortgage-pricing variables and the slope of the Treasury yield curve, a proxy for expectations of the time path of ARM indexes, were generally found to be significant. Further, the geographic shift in FHA lending toward the California market since 1992 was found to explain a significant part of the increase in the ARM share of FHA originations during the mid-1990s.     

Temporal relationships among adjustable-rate mortgage indexes

This article investigates the linkage among six ARM indexes during the 1978–1989 period. Granger's direct causality test is used to examine their relationship within a rolling regression framework. The nonstationary properties of each index and selected pairs of indexes are investigated by using the unit root and cointegration tests. The empirical results confirmed their relationship has changed over this period and short-term rates lead the eleventh district cost-of-funds index. The implications of the empirical results from the perspectives of borrowers (ARM choice), lenders (pricing), and investors (security valuation) are also discussed.