实验设计的新前沿

产品和过程开发是业务长期生存的基础，生存和成功的关键是培养创新和减少产品上市时间，同时使产品到达最佳性能。     

Experimental analysis of choice

Experimental choice analysis continues to attract academic and applied attention. We review what is known about the design, conduct, analysis, and use of data from choice experiments, and indicate gaps in current knowledge that should be addressed in future research. Design strategies consistent with probabilistic models of choice process and the parallels between choice experiments and real markets are considered. Additionally, we address the issues of reliability and validity. Progress has been made in accounting for differences in reliability, but more research is needed to determine which experiments and response procedures will consistently produce more reliable data for various problems.Sawtooth SoftwareDecision Research     

Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

Human capital: A critique

The human capital approach increasingly has been absorbed within the folds of cultural determinism. The trend has been so pronounced that it prompted the organization of a session at the December 1984 American Economic Association meetings in Dallas, Texas, entitled “Human Capital and Culture: Analyses of Variations in Labor Market Performance.” The papers from that session are available in the May 1985 issue of theAmerican Economic Review. One of the discussants for the session was Stephen Steinberg, a sociologist at Queens College. Steinberg was invited to comment on the presented papers for two major reasons—first, he had written an outstanding study that debunked many of the conventional linkages made between culture and ethnic achievement,The Ethnic Myth, and second, as a sociologist, he was expected to provide a perspective on the subject quite different from the rest of the panelists, all of whom were economists. In the midst of the coven of economists, Steinberg appeared well armed. He arrived with his own paper, a paper that went far beyond comments on the presented papers. Unfortunately, the current rules governing the inclusion of papers in the AEA proceedings prohibit publication of the discussants’ remarks. Fortunately, Steinberg graciously has consented to have the paper appear in theReview of Black Political Economy.     

The militarization of space: From passive support to active weapons systems

Space has become an essential element of the strategic balance. Large investments in passive satellites and a growing dependence on them have created potential new strategic problems and arms control challenges. there is also a resurgence of interest in ‘active’ weapon systems based on developments in laser and particle beam technology. This paper reviews the evolution of military space programmes, and explores the present and future challenges and dilemmas.     

The new retirement reality: calculating the true cost of retirement income adequacy

Recognizing that 401(k) plans are emerging as many employees' sole source of employer-sponsored retirement income, plan sponsors are increasingly adding paternalistic plan features to increase the amount--and effectiveness--of dollars invested in 401(k) accounts. The authors describe the results of a study they prepared for Hewitt Associates that assesses retirement income adequacy for individuals represented in a plan participant database of 1.8 million individuals. The study includes analysis of retirement income adequacy for the aggregate population as well as the results for different subgroups, reflecting factors such as whether individuals actively contribute; the impact of different levels of retiree medical coverage; and the presence of a defined benefit pension. Finally, the authors discuss how plan sponsors can bolster the adequacy of retirement income from 401(k) plans, depending on employer objectives.