Futures of Crisis,Futures of Urban Political Theory: Flooding in Asian Coastal Megacities

Coastal megacities across Asia have experienced devastating floods in recent years. Studies project dramatic increases in populations prone to chronic flooding and potential permanent inundation of densely populated urban areas in future decades. The uncertainties presented by future flood risks disrupt prevalent state visions of globalization‐driven prosperity. The emerging reality of a shift in relationship between water and urban settlements has begun driving recalibration of power relations around a range of issues, including longstanding contestations over infrastructure delivery, housing, land rights and political representation. Flood mitigation efforts have played out in debates over displacement and eviction, and distributional concerns about the costs and benefits of these initiatives. This article develops a conceptual framework for assessing the implications of projections of flood risk for urban political theory. The article begins by identifying political contestations that emerge around the varied ways water intersects with urban processes—through dynamics of permeability, flow and drainage, aquifers and pipes, and coastal defense. It then explores how projections of the crisis of flooding have reshaped three contemporary debates in urban politics: those around property rights and the question of ‘informality’; around neoliberalization and financialization; and around the rescaling of the state. Finally, it briefly deploys this framework to examine the case of Jakarta.     

Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation.     

Do risk management practices work? Evidence from hedge funds

We examine hedge fund risk management practices and their association with left-tail risk during the 2008 financial crisis. Consistent with risk management practices reducing left-tail risk, funds in our sample that use formal risk models performed significantly better in the extreme down months of 2008. We find no evidence that having either position limits or a dedicated head of risk management is associated with reduced left-tail risk. Funds employing value at risk models had more accurate expectations of how they would perform in a short-term equity bear market.     

An Exploratory Study of Regulatory Failure in the Australian Home Mortgage Market

Regulators have long been interested in protecting consumers borrowing for a home as it is likely the single greatest financial obligation they will undertake. In this paper we examine the approach taken in Australia to mandating the disclosure of simple comparison data to reduce the complexity involved in the home loan decision. This article highlights that while the form of the legislated disclosure significantly improves decision accuracy, the failure of the regulator to account for the consumer's purchase behavior and lenders' motivations has undermined its effectiveness. We provide a number of recommendations for how to rectify these failings, principally that regulators need to consider the role of borrower information search and lender motivation as part of any regulatory reform.     

Training professionals' usage and understanding of Kirkpatrick's Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations

Training professionals have long acknowledged the necessity of conducting behavior‐based (Level 3) and results‐based (Level 4) evaluations, yet organizations do not frequently conduct such evaluations. This research examined training professionals' perceptions of the utility of Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations and the factors that facilitate or obstruct their attempts to perform them. The research was conducted using Brinkerhoff's Success Case Method and Gilbert's Behavior Engineering Model as its frameworks. The three key factors identified by study participants as having an impact upon their ability to conduct Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations were the availability of resources such as time and personnel, managerial support (organizational) and expertise in evaluative methodology (individual). The research findings indicated a need to further explore how training professionals interpret Level 3 and Level 4 and how they can better develop their evaluative expertise, which in turn may increase effectiveness in gaining organizational support for evaluation efforts.     

ADAM SMITH AND THE ROLE OF THE METAPHOR OF AN INVISIBLE HAND

Daniel Klein and Brandon Lucas's ‘In a Word or Two, Placed in the Middle: The Invisible Hand in Smith's Tomes’, following a vague hint by Peter Minowitz (2004) , offers original physical evidence that Smith ‘deliberately placed the phrase “led by an invisible hand”– at the physical centre of both his masterworks’. Further, it suggests that the invisible‐hand paragraphs are a response to Rousseau (1755 ); and that in ‘numerous and rich ways’, centrality holds ‘special and positive significance in Smith's thought’. This paper acknowledges the physical centrality of the invisible‐hand metaphor, but questions whether centrality alone gives weight to wider claims that the ‘invisible hand’ was Smith's ‘central idea’. It draws upon Smith's Rhetoric Lectures (1763), and argues that the invisible‐hand paragraphs in The Theory of Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations identify the actual objects of the invisible‐hand metaphor. This paper insists that Adam Smith is the most reliable source for revealing what he meant. In contrast, most modern attributions of special meaning to Adam Smith's use of the metaphor ignore Smith's teaching on the use of metaphors and, instead, make numerous, and often mutually exclusive, claims that Smith had a ‘doctrine’ of ‘an invisible‐hand’.     

Fast growing small entrepreneurial firms and their venture capital backers: An applied principal-agent analysis

First the empirical background of the U.K. venture capital industry is developed using a panel of major U.K. venture capital funds over the period 1988–92. Then a framework for applied principal agent analysis is developed, focusing on risk management and information. Under risk management it explores attitude to risk, risk sharing and bearing, and the effects of risk bearing on effort. Under information handling, it explores information systems, information asymmetries between investor (venture capitalist) and investee (entrepreneur), and ways of attenuating them, and information variance and costs. Finally, the contract between investor and investee is seen as a device for trading risk and information. The implications of this trading for risk bearing, effort and efficiency are explored. The whole analysis is supported by a detailed case study which reflects current practice in the U.K. venture capital industry. The evidence provides striking confirmation of the applicability of the principal-agent model to the venture capital financing of hightech ventures.     

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP), a framework for political, economic and social relations between the European Union and its Southern Mediterranean neighbours, saw daylight in Barcelona on 27-29 November 1995. Ten years on, the international conditions in which the EMP operates have been radically altered by events in the Middle East as well as the enlargement of the EU. How well has the partnership performed in this changing environment and what are its prospects for the future?

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* Research Fellow at the United Nations University—Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU—CRIS), Bruges, Belgium.