Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.     

金融服务开放与制造业企业出口产品质量:影响机制与经验证据

文章从理论上分析了金融服务开放影响制造业企业出口产品质量提升的动态演变过程，并利用2004-2013年中国金融服务进出口和中国工业企业数据对理论推演进行验证。结果表明：金融服务开放显著促进了制造业出口产品质量升级，且金融服务引进来对制造业企业出口产品质量提升的作用略大于金融服务走出去所产生的作用；从不同贸易方式、不同衡量指标、不同企业所有制等方面对此进行检验均证实了金融服务开放对制造业出口产品质量升级的正向作用；影响机制检验和扩展分析显示，创新效应、金融服务"引进来"对"走出去"的推动、垂直专业化效应和本地吸收效应影响着金融开放对企业出口产品质量升级的作用。文章的研究发现有助于为进一步扩大金融服务开放来推动制造业高质量发展提供有价值的政策依据。     

硬岩大直径孔桩旋挖钻成孔技术研究

进行硬岩的嵌岩桩基施工时,存在冲击钻成孔进尺慢,旋挖钻成孔效率低下等难题,本项目在理论研究及分析的基础上,对旋挖钻进行硬岩钻孔施工的荷载施加方式、钻杆种类选用、钻头种类选用、机械组合及施工工艺、顺序等进行了研究和改进,大幅提高了旋挖钻硬岩成孔工效,发挥了旋挖钻的优势,实现了硬岩地质时采用旋挖钻快速成孔的突破.     

优化营商环境与外资企业FDI动机——市场寻求抑或效率寻求

在优化营商环境已成为当前发展中国家引资竞争新优势的背景下,针对优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的考察变得尤为重要。本文在构建企业层面营商环境指数的基础上,考察了发展中国家优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的机制及效应。结论表明:优化营商环境减弱(增强)了外资企业的市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机;内资企业竞争力的增强、外资企业特惠资源的取消和加工贸易型外资企业的存在,使得优化营商环境降低了外资企业的生产率,进而市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机减弱(增强)。细分样本的考察发现,上述结论仅存在于独资企业、工业和低收入国家的外资企业中,对于合资企业、服务业和高收入国家的外资企业,优化营商环境对其FDI动机无显著影响,且生产率的中介效应不存在。本研究从优化营商环境的视角为当前中国引资政策的制定提供了更为具体的政策启示。     

财务会计在建筑施工企业中的作用及策略分析

近些年来,我国经济局势呈现出跨越式的发展,基于建筑施工行业发展以及建设在此基础下获得了明显的进步.放眼建筑施工行业的发展角度,其主要业务就是管理财务会计工作,针对行业的发展来说意义重大.财务会计的工作质量及效益不高,在某种程度上和行业的发展呈密切相关.鉴于此种背景之下,本文对就建筑施工行业中财务会计的实际作用,分析现存的问题,提出改善问题的有效措施,意在为建筑施工行业的可持续发展提供参考.     

Cross-national differences in stakeholder management: Applying institutional theory and comparative capitalism framework

Drawing upon the research in institutional theory and comparative capitalism, the present study investigates how cross-national differences in the political, business, and economic institutional contexts of the United States, Italy, and Japan are associated with the ways in which companies in each of these countries prioritize and engage in their stakeholder engagement activities (SEAs). Using Porter and Kramer's framework, which classifies corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities as falling into four categories (good citizenship, mitigating harm from value chain, transforming value chain activities, and strategic philanthropy), we investigate how companies in the United States, Japan, and Italy prioritize and engage in these four SEAs. An analysis of data collected from 340 companies across these countries reveals that while companies in each of these three countries undertake the four types of SEAs, the prioritization and prevalence of the four types of SEAs vary from one country to the other, in ways that align with the prevailing institutional contexts of each country. The results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of why and how companies' approaches to CSR differ across countries. From a practitioner's perspective, the findings highlight the cultural specificity of CSR, implying that despite the global nature of CSR, the implementation of CSR needs to be tailored to a country's context.     

户籍制度扭曲及放松对经济的影响:理论与实证

户籍制度是我国劳动力流动的主要障碍.那么,当前我国的户籍扭曲程度几何?户籍制度放松对经济又会有怎样的影响?对这些问题的回答将有助于政府评估户籍制度改革的空间和经济效益.文章在Hansen和Prescott(2002)的两部门劳动力流动模型基础上,将工人分为农业和非农户口,引入户籍扭曲因子,构建两部门两类工人的户籍扭曲模型;然后,使用1984?2013年宏观经济数据度量户籍扭曲程度,并对2013年我国户籍制度逐渐放松过程中经济变量的变化进行模拟;最后,文章建立了包含"农业与非农"和"本地与外地"户籍差异的省份异质性户籍扭曲模型.研究表明:(1)经济和户籍制度改革的不同步导致了1984?2013年我国户籍扭曲程度呈现倒"U"形变化,且相较于韩国尚有较大的改善空间;(2)以韩国为参照,若2013年我国户籍制度完全放开,经济达到均衡时,农业部门和非农部门的就业人数将分别下降58.83%和上升26.92%,工资率将分别上升19.44%和下降6.77%,社会增加值将增长15.33%,这说明社会经济效率将得到提升,贫富差距将缩小.文章丰富和完善了户籍扭曲的理论模型,从减少劳动力流动摩擦的视角为政府制定相关政策提供了参考.     

Does Institutional Blockholder Short‐Termism Lead to Managerial Myopia? Evidence from Income Smoothing

We examine institutional blockholders’ influence on income‐smoothing practices in the Korean market, which provides an interesting setting where family‐oriented chaebols dictate the corporate landscape and impede shareholder activism. The empirical results reveal that institutional shareholders with a short‐term (long‐term) investment horizon facilitate (constrain) managerial myopia. This positive (negative) association is most evident among firms with domestic institutional investors. Therefore, we argue that the presence of domestic institutional investors with transient investment goals incentivizes firms’ management to smooth out earnings.     

一种级联两箱通用数字预失真器及其辨识算法

提出了一种由单形规范线性分段(SCPWL)函数与记忆多项式级联的数字预失真器，并给出了复数域两步最小二乘参数辨识算法。不同于以往一种预失真器适用一种功放模型的情况，所提的预失真算法利用SCPWL函数的分段特性以及记忆多项式的非线性记忆特性，在完成参数辨识的同时自动地调整结构，可适用于传统以及强非线性新型功放模型的线性化补偿。将所提预失真器分别应用于传统记忆多项式、两箱模型以及新型包络跟踪功放。经过计算机仿真，功放输出的幅频特性和频谱曲线表明所提预失真器能够有效地补偿多种功放的非线性特性。算法仿真比较结果也表明，针对包络跟踪功放，所提复数两步最小二乘算法的邻道泄漏比(ACLR)可改善约35 dB，性能优于最小均方(LMS)类算法约30 dB。     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.