Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.     

金融服务开放与制造业企业出口产品质量:影响机制与经验证据

文章从理论上分析了金融服务开放影响制造业企业出口产品质量提升的动态演变过程，并利用2004-2013年中国金融服务进出口和中国工业企业数据对理论推演进行验证。结果表明：金融服务开放显著促进了制造业出口产品质量升级，且金融服务引进来对制造业企业出口产品质量提升的作用略大于金融服务走出去所产生的作用；从不同贸易方式、不同衡量指标、不同企业所有制等方面对此进行检验均证实了金融服务开放对制造业出口产品质量升级的正向作用；影响机制检验和扩展分析显示，创新效应、金融服务"引进来"对"走出去"的推动、垂直专业化效应和本地吸收效应影响着金融开放对企业出口产品质量升级的作用。文章的研究发现有助于为进一步扩大金融服务开放来推动制造业高质量发展提供有价值的政策依据。     

Cross-national differences in stakeholder management: Applying institutional theory and comparative capitalism framework

Drawing upon the research in institutional theory and comparative capitalism, the present study investigates how cross-national differences in the political, business, and economic institutional contexts of the United States, Italy, and Japan are associated with the ways in which companies in each of these countries prioritize and engage in their stakeholder engagement activities (SEAs). Using Porter and Kramer's framework, which classifies corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities as falling into four categories (good citizenship, mitigating harm from value chain, transforming value chain activities, and strategic philanthropy), we investigate how companies in the United States, Japan, and Italy prioritize and engage in these four SEAs. An analysis of data collected from 340 companies across these countries reveals that while companies in each of these three countries undertake the four types of SEAs, the prioritization and prevalence of the four types of SEAs vary from one country to the other, in ways that align with the prevailing institutional contexts of each country. The results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of why and how companies' approaches to CSR differ across countries. From a practitioner's perspective, the findings highlight the cultural specificity of CSR, implying that despite the global nature of CSR, the implementation of CSR needs to be tailored to a country's context.     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

Neither an Authentic Product nor a Counterfeit: The Growing Popularity of Shanzhai Products in Global Markets

Counterfeits have been a longstanding concern to global brand manufactures. However, recently, a new product category that partly imitates and partly innovates under the term shanzhai has entered into market. Shanzhai products mimic original leading brands through visual or functional similarities and may also provide additional features. Given this new copycat phenomenon, our study for the first time conceptually distinguishes shanzhai products from counterfeits, theoretically compares the values of consumers choosing shanzhai products versus counterfeits, and empirically tests such differences in one integrative model. Specifically, shanzhai buyers value product functional benefits more than counterfeit buyers, while counterfeit buyers value status consumption, yet experience less self‐clarity than shanzhai buyers. Our findings offer important implications for imitative innovation literature as well as for practitioners.     

The evolution of competition in innovation resource: a theoretical study based on Lotka–Volterra model

This research uses the Lotka–Volterra model to analyse the competition of innovation resource between two enterprises and studies the dynamic effects of environmental changes through the change of model parameters. The research finds that there are three possible results of the competition in innovation resource. That comprises ‘crowding out effect’, ‘unstable equilibrium’ and ‘stable equilibrium’. The results of competitive evolution are determined by enterprises’ interaction parameters. However, the natural growth rates, the initial resource possessions of both enterprises and the amount of regional innovation resource have a significant impact on the evolution of competition.     

Earthquake triggered networked risk and response: based on relevant literature

Death, injury, conflict, and disorder caused by natural and man-made disasters have resulted in significant challenges to good governance and impeded the goal of achieving the benign development of society. This paper uses a particular method for analyzing the research situation and identifying current trends and focuses. It then proceeds to explore future research needs. The study finds that future researchers will shift their emphasis from the risks caused by natural disasters to those arising from man-made disasters; meanwhile, the study will consider the complex systems of interaction to understand causality. The objectives of management, hence, should change from investigating the impacts of risks to crisis control. Eventually, an evolutionary disaster-based social-risk framework is established, and some suggestions for future research are provided.     

Impulse response function analysis of the impacts of land value-added tax policy on government performance

In this study, an epsilon-based network data envelopment analysis is employed to construct assessment mechanisms for government performance. Moreover, performance indicators of two dimensions of tax collection efficiency and financial effectiveness are measured. We propose a vector autoregression model in which all economic variables are regarded as dependent variables to address the disadvantages of traditional regression model. The conclusions are as follows: (a) measures of tax collection efficiency deteriorated, whereas those of financial effectiveness improved. (b) In an impulse response analysis of the model, an increase in government-published land values produced significantly increased tax collection efficiency.     

中国粳稻生产效率演变及区域差异

[目的]我国粳稻产量现阶段呈连续增长的态势,然而粳稻生产效率却存在无效率或波动剧烈的现象,研究我国的粳稻生产效率,有助于提升和稳定中国粳稻区域生产效率和水平从而间接保障我国粮食安全。[方法]使用超效率DEA方法测算中国13个粳稻生产省份的生产效率,分别从时间和区域上的差异进行分析。[结果]中国粳稻生产技术效率在时间趋势上逐渐趋于平稳,但是在2004—2007年间存在短暂的波动;在区域上主要是西南和东北粳稻生产区的技术效率水平较高,西北区在技术效率、纯技术效率与规模效率上都处于较低的水平;虽然河南、湖北、宁夏3个省份出现技术无效率,但规模报酬都处于递增的状态,仍有提升生产效率的潜力,应通过减少要素投入冗余来改变其无效率状态。[结论]粳稻生产技术无效率主要是由于种子费用、农药费用等生产要素的投入冗余造成的;若将来在保持纯技术效率和其他条件不变的情况下,通过提升规模效率水平会进一步提升我国粳稻的整体技术效率水平。基于上述分析有针对性地提出制定粳稻生产区域规划、发展适度规模经营、改善生产要素使用效率3方面的政策建议。     

机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响

基于2007-2018年中国A股上市公司数据,本文考察了机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,机构交叉持股显著提高了企业价值,在考虑内生性问题和替换主要变量后结论依然较为稳健。交叉持股机构投资者能够成为更加积极的监督者,主动参与公司治理,缓解代理问题,同时促进同行业企业间产品市场协作,改善企业的产品市场表现,进而提升企业价值。此外,相比其他类型的投资者,长期、独立以及稳定型的交叉持股机构投资者对企业价值的促进作用更显著,进一步印证了监督治理渠道的作用。机构交叉持股推动产品市场协作,主要是通过提高企业创新能力和营业利润率。本文结论证实了机构交叉持股的正向协同效应,对完善中国资本市场制度体系和促进企业可持续发展具有重要意义。