贫困治理参与、市场竞争与企业创新——基于上市公司参与精准扶贫视角

市场竞争在企业参与外部社会治理的过程中能够发挥创新激励作用吗?从这个问题出发,文章以中国上市公司参与精准扶贫为研究背景,从宏观治理与微观治理两个层面,政府与市场两个视角,投入与产出两个维度出发,考察参与扶贫对企业创新的影响,使用2016-2019年沪深A股上市公司样本先从投入维度实证验证了企业参与治理会在一定程度产生"创新投入挤占效应",即上市公司参与扶贫治理与其创新投入强度显著负相关.然而,更高市场竞争程度能显著降低"挤占效应",有效发挥创新作为根本动力的激励作用;更进一步的研究表明,区分信贷资源和政商关系的异质性,这种"挤占效应"在信贷资源可得性较差、政商关系水平更低的参与企业中更加显著.机制研究表明,这种"挤占效应"通过政策性负担的增加、管理层业绩压力的降低而显著提升.最后,经济后果分析发现,企业参与贫困治理虽然挤占了其创新投入,却提升了创新产出,企业创新产出的数量与质量都得到了改善,参与治理为企业创新效率的提升带来了益处.本文的研究有利于加深对企业主体创新行为的理解,为理顺政府与市场关系、激发企业创新活力提供了新思考,具有一定的学术意义与实践价值.     

南方丘陵区新增耕地质量空间特征研究*——以江西省宜春市为例

［目的］粮食安全的根本是在耕地，关键在于耕地质量。目前新增耕地主要源于土地开发项目、城乡建设用地增减挂钩土地复垦项目等，这些新增耕地需要对其开展耕地质量等别评定工作，了解新增耕地的质量状况，分析其空间特征，这对落实国家耕地保护制度、开展农村土地整治工作等具有重要作用。［方法］文章以南方典型丘陵区域——江西省宜春市作为研究区域，在新增耕地质量评价的基础上，运用地统计学、景观生态学、Arcgis空间分析技术和典型相关分析方法，研究宜春市新增耕地质量的空间特征，掌握耕地质量等别的分布规律，了解耕地质量的影响因素，为制定合理的耕地资源利用与保护政策提供依据。［结果］（1）Moran′s I值结果表明宜春市2014年新增耕地利用质量在空间分布上的空间自相关性最强，而耕地自然质量空间自相关性最弱。（2）景观破碎度指数结果表明优、高等别的新增耕地质量破碎度大于中、低等别的； 多样性指数结果表明新增耕地质量多样性指数比较大； 优势度指数结果表明新增耕地质量等别优势度指数比较小，与多样性指数结果相呼应； 均匀度指数结果表明，新增耕地质量等别均匀度指数相差不大，新增耕地质量等别比较均匀。（3）质心结果表明2013—2014年间宜春市新增耕地质量的格局整体上是向西南方向变化。［结论］宜春市新增耕地质量不高； 新增耕地的利用水平差异性较小，自然本底状况差异较大； 新增耕地质量等别类型多，各质量等别类型耕地均有增加，耕地质量参差不齐，较高等地的新增耕地相对低等地而言更破碎化； 新增耕地的开发格局向着西南方向移动； 该研究为南方丘陵区的新增耕地保护提供了一定的参考依据。     

川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异机制探测

[目的]客观揭示农村贫困化地域分异机制,为科学推进川西北高原藏区精准扶贫创新途径、综合战略和认真贯彻落实中央治藏方略提供参考依据。[方法]应用地理探测器模型、GIS空间分析与地统计方法等方法,探测川西北高原藏区贫困村单位面积GDP分异的主导因素,揭示农村贫困化分异机制,提出不同贫困化地域类型的扶贫政策措施。[结果]影响川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异的主导因素包括到主要交通道路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地利用、年均温度和海拔高程等,各因素对贫困村经济发展分异的解释力分别为80. 76%、12. 82%、8. 82%、5. 45%和3. 96%;贫困村经济发展贫困化的分异机制存在明显差异,可归纳为交通区位约束型、自然环境约束型和经济区位约束型等三大类型;农村贫困化驱动机制下的贫困村精准扶贫政策措施亟需因地制宜、科学推进、讲求实效,有序推进精准扶贫战略。[结论]精准扶贫应分类指导、重点突破,尤其加强贫困村交通、水利、公共基础设施建设和特色农牧业产业培植,注重多种扶贫模式的综合集成。     

Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference

We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection.     

高分1号冬小麦解译面积核算方法研究

[目的]以高分1号(GF-1)融合2m卫星遥感影像为基础数据源,结合土地利用现状数据、高分多源遥感影像和地面样方等数据,对冬小麦分类提取中存在的面积误差问题进行研究和分析。[方法]文章以河南省永城市为研究区,在冬小麦提取结果聚类处理基础上,基于线性地物缓冲区数据,采用GIS空间运算实现线性地物面积扣除,接着分析了样方数据和土地利用现状数据再扣除零星地物面积比例上的差异,并采用样方零星地物平均扣除系数对全市各乡镇耕地与非耕地中冬小麦提取面积进行了相关统计和误差分析。[结果]永城市冬小麦最终解译面积11. 29万hm~2,其中线性地物和零星地物扣除面积分别为6 613. 08hm~2和3 875. 22hm~2,占研究区冬小麦解译面积的5. 86%和3. 32%,与统计上报数据相比,其处理前后误差由14. 12%降低至4. 41%,有效地提高冬小麦提取面积精度。[结论]误差来源分析与修正对冬小麦解译面积核算精度具有重要影响,该研究为县级区域尺度下冬小麦面积提取核算提供了思路和借鉴。     

Childhood adversity and the propensity for entrepreneurship: A quasi-experimental study of the Great Chinese Famine

Studies on the determinants of entrepreneurship emphasize that challenged adults tend to become entrepreneurs. However, research has not addressed the childhood origins surrounding the propensity for entrepreneurship. This article links childhood adversity to the propensity of individuals to become migrant entrepreneurs later in life. We test hypotheses derived from this theory in the context of whether, and when, children who survived the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 became migrant entrepreneurs. Results strongly indicate that those who survived greater hardship during the Famine are more likely to become entrepreneurs, especially when they were younger during the famine years. We also find that being younger at the time of migration increased the likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs in their new locale. Overall, this study casts light on why, how and when childhood adversity shapes the propensity for entrepreneurship.     

Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration,causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the causal structure among the daily corn futures and seven cash price series from Midwestern states from January 3, 2006, to March...     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).