Misreporting trade: Tariff evasion,corruption, and auditing standards

Official international trade statistics report commerce between every pair of countries twice: once for the importing country and once for the exporter. In principle, the two values differ only by transport costs, but as has long been recognized, they also differ systematically with product‐level tariffs. We aggregate across products to construct a dataset of annual aggregate bilateral trade, separately for the importer and exporter reports. With these data, we show that the reporting differences also vary systematically with country characteristics aside from tariffs: incomes, auditing standards, corruption, and trade agreements.     

UNMASKING THE POLLUTION HAVEN EFFECT*

We use theory and empirics to examine the effect of environmental regulations on trade flows. A simple model demonstrates how unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and aggregation issues bias standard measurements of this relationship. A reduced‐form estimate of the model, using data on U.S. regulations and trade with Canada and Mexico for 130 manufacturing industries from 1977 to 1986, indicates that industries whose abatement costs increased most experienced the largest increases in net imports. For the average industry, the change in net imports we ascribe to regulatory costs amounting to 10% of the total increase in trade volume over the period.     

A Rich Vein for Reality Mining

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

The relationship among systems engineers' capacity for engineering systems thinking,project types,and project success

In recent years, systems engineering and Project Management Bodies of Knowledge have been rapidly growing. However, despite the vast amount of literature available on systems engineering and project management, about two‐thirds of all projects still fail. A review of both project management and systems engineering publications reveals that most of these works focus on processes. We suggest focusing on people—project managers and systems engineers. One of our previous studies dealt with project managers; this article focuses on systems engineers. This article presents findings of a study aimed at exploring the relationship among systems engineers' capacity for engineering systems thinking (CEST), project types, and project success. The instrument used in this study was a self‐report questionnaire, composed of three parts. The first part assessed the participants' CEST, the second part assessed several measures of project success, and the third part assessed four dimensions of project type. The simple random sampling method was used, and the sample included 114 senior systems engineers who were randomly selected from the sampling frame. The study findings show that there is a statistically significant correlation between CEST and project success. The extent of the project's novelty, complexity, and technological uncertainty are moderator variables that affect this correlation.     

The Missing Pollution Haven Effect

This paper examines the effect of recent increases inhazardous waste disposal taxes on employment growth inindustries that generate hazardous waste. Mostexisting literature has found that interjurisdictionaldifferences in environmental stringency havenegligible measurable economic consequences. Commonexplanations for this lack of effect include claimsthat (1) measures of environmental stringency arepoorly quantified, (2) compliance costs are modest,(3) variation in compliance costs among jurisdictionsis small, and (4) cross-section data are insufficientto explore the consequences of increasingly stringentstandards. This paper addresses these four concernsby quantifying hazardous waste disposal taxes,demonstrating that they are large and varied acrossjurisdictions in the United States, and showing thatthey have had a significant effect on hazardous wasteshipping among states. The paper then uses a panel ofstate and county-level data to show that despite thesefindings, state hazardous waste disposal taxes do notimpose large employment losses on industries thatgenerate waste.     

A portfolio choice model with utility from anticipation of future consumption and stock market mean reversion

This paper studies a consumption and portfolio choice problem of a long-lived investor who derives pleasure not only from current consumption, but also from the contemplation of future consumption. The model assumes that all effects of future consumption on current well being are assumed to enter through a single variable—namely, the “stock of future consumption”—analogously to habit-formation models. The main implications of the model concern the incentives for savings, and the fundamental sources of risk in financial markets. It is shown that, when the stock market exhibits mean reversion, deriving utility from anticipation of future consumption has a tremendous effect on portfolio choice. In particular, mean allocation to stocks is much lower under the proposed preferences relative to the standard preferences, especially for high risk averse investors.     

Employee cost-sharing and the welfare effects of flexible spending accounts

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) subsidize out-of-pocket health expenses not covered by employer-provided health insurance, making health care cheaper ex post, but also reducing the incentive to insure. We use a cross section of firm-level data to show that FSAs are indeed associated with reduced insurance coverage, and to evaluate the welfare consequences of this shift. Correcting for selection effects we find that FSAs are associated with insurance contracts that have coinsurance rates about 7 percentage points higher, relative to a sample average coinsurance rate of 17%. Meanwhile, coinsurance rates net of the subsidy are approximately unchanged, providing evidence that FSAs are only welfare neutral if we ignore distributional considerations and the deadweight loss of the taxes necessary to finance the subsidy. These results also suggest that FSAs may explain a significant fraction of the shift in health care costs to employees that has occurred in recent years.