Religious minority in business history: The case of Old Believers

The role of the Old Believers (OB) in the development of Russian industry has been noted by many historians; however, empirical research on the topic is scarce. Using official censuses, archive sources, and industrial reports, the role of OB enterprises in the Moscow textile industry for the period 1832–1890 was examined. The analysis highlighted the rise and fall of the participation of OB in the textile industry, contrasting the findings of other researchers, which were often exaggerated. The findings can be explained by social networks and trust which arise from the minority status, whereas the relative decline is related to structural changes and preferences of OB to family-type of business.     

Bad news does not always travel fast: evidence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings

This paper examines the stock price performances of 275 non‐financial, non‐utility U.S. industrial firms that continue trading on the main exchanges after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy between 1 October 1979 and 17 October 2005. This paper identifies a negative and statistically significant post‐bankruptcy drift that lasts for at least 6 months. This finding adds to the literature showing that the market is unable to process bad public news events in a timely manner. Further analysis suggests that the theoretical model proposed by Hong and Stein (1999) can be used to help explain this market‐pricing anomaly.     

The rest of me

iPhone Siri demonstratively introduced natural language processing. Still a gadget, the idea revived one of the old promises of computers as personal assistants. Does it have the potential of fulfilling the already burgeoning imagination related to this promise? The authors believe that, while still dependent on the evolution of artificial intelligence, the virtual assistant may find support in the already maturing technologies of augmented reality and, more important, in the changing global network with the semantic web, Internet of things and geo-location. Bluntly speaking, its feasibility and acceptability may not even have to wait for the promised IBM computer with human brain capabilities, but rather build on a more friendly interaction with the Google search engine.The article provides a narrative scenario of the deep economic and social transformations and even turbulence that the so called imaginary friend may produce. Not discarding, but creatively integrating some of the archetypes of futuristic literature, the story positions these entities as the foreground of a deep integration of networks, with the added turmoil caused by economic interests that go beyond individuals’ sense-making capacity.This article is one of the follow-ups of the international foresight workshop “Crazy futures” coordinated by Ziauddin Sardar and George Cairns in a small resort on the Danube Delta in July 2011, a workshop organised as part of the project Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education.     

Dual-listings on international exchanges: the case of emerging markets' stocks

This paper examines the effects on stock returns of dual-listing on an international exchange. My sample consists of 70 firms from 10 emerging markets that dual-listed on the NYSE, NASDAQ and SEAQ-I (London) over the period 1991–1995. I evaluate whether an international dual-listing has any significant effect on returns, for the particular case of emerging markets' firms, and I proceed to investigate whether there is evidence to support an International Asset Pricing based explanation. In addition I compare the impact of US and London SEAQ-I listings. My results confirm previous empirical findings on international listings: the firms in my sample experience significant positive abnormal returns before listing and a significant decline in returns following listing. Evidence seems to be supportive of the segmentation hypothesis: dual-listing effects are more pronounced for emerging markets' listings and that pattern is similar across exchanges.
G15     

Modelling price transmission and volatility spillover in the Slovenian wheat market

Interdependence between first and second moments of producer and consumer wheat prices in Slovenia is assessed, in light of the recent major historical events that the country has undergone, as well as the recent rumours of cartel agreements between millers causing a decline in farm-gate prices, while leaving consumer prices untouched. A threshold vector error correction and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with exogenous variables is applied. Results indicate that price-level adjustments mainly favour retailers by increasing their marketing margins. Important second-moment interactions are also identified. Increases in international wheat stocks reduce producer prices, while higher interest rates increase their instability.     

The effects of externalities and framing on bribery in a petty corruption experiment

Using a simple one-shot bribery game simulating petty corruption exchanges, we find evidence of a negative externality effect and a framing effect. When the losses suffered by third parties due to a bribe being offered and accepted are high and the game is presented as a petty corruption scenario instead of in abstract terms bribes are less likely to be offered. Higher negative externalities are also associated with less bribe acceptance. However, framing has no effect on bribe acceptance, indicating that the issue of artificiality may be of particular importance in bribery experiments.     

Farms’ technical inefficiencies in the presence of government programs*

We focus on determining the impacts of government programs on farms’ technical inefficiency levels. We use Kumbhakar's stochastic frontier model that accounts for both production risks and risk preferences. Our theoretical framework shows that decoupled government transfers are likely to increase (decrease) DARA (IARA) farmers’ production inefficiencies if variable inputs are risk decreasing. However, the impacts of decoupled payments cannot be anticipated if variable inputs are risk increasing. We use farm‐level data collected in Kansas to illustrate the model.     

Agricultural Policy Reform and Off‐farm Labour Decisions

Off‐farm labour decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers are evaluated. The central question of our analysis pertains to whether 1996 US farm policy reforms may have altered the decisions to work off the farm. The effects of policy decoupling on off‐farm labour are complex: different aspects of policy changes can have opposing effects on off‐farm work decisions. Essentially, this makes this issue an empirical question. Results show that the introduction of fixed, decoupled payments in 1996 might have reduced the likelihood of off‐farm labour participation. However, the new policy environment may have increased farm households’ revealed aversion to risk, motivating a higher participation in non‐farm labour markets. The effects of 1996 policy reforms on farm income variability could have been attenuated by changes in US crop insurance programmes and by an increase in emergency assistance payments towards the end of the 1990s. The reduction in price supports may have increased the motivation for working off the farm. The net effect of the overall reforms on off‐farm work participation is not likely to have been large.     

Non‐parametric Modelling of Spatial Price Relationships

We apply non‐parametric methods to a consideration of price transmission processes within US egg markets at the turn of the nineteenth century. Gordon (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7833, 2000) labelled this as an era of ‘Great Inventions’ which contributed to the subsequent years of significant productivity growth and noted that the development of mechanical refrigeration and transportation technologies played an important role in this growth. Our models present certain advantages relative to parametric models traditionally employed in price transmission analyses. We compare results derived from local polynomial modelling with those obtained using non‐linear threshold models. Both techniques suggest that US egg markets were interrelated at the turn of the nineteenth century. However, non‐parametric techniques often suggest a higher degree of price transmission than that implied by threshold models. Results also suggest that threshold models may have difficulties in adequately capturing price relationship dynamics, especially when these are of a highly nonlinear nature.