Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

Dismantling the south-west coalition: further evidence of distributive politics in preemption legislation

Economics of Governance - The factors influencing legislative voting behavior have often been studied. This is especially true regarding antebellum federal preemption legislation. Several...     

Analysts’ annual earnings forecasts and changes to the I/B/E/S database

Review of Accounting Studies - I/B/E/S is a common source of analyst earnings forecast data, and the reliability of these data is important for practice and academic research. Examining a common...     

Short-termism,shareholder payouts and investment in the EU

Investor-driven 'short-termism' is said to harm EU public firms' ability to invest for the long term, prompting calls for the EU to better insulate managers from shareholder pressure. But the evidence offered—rising levels of repurchases and dividends—is incomplete and misleading: it ignores large offsetting equity issuances that move capital from investors to EU firms. We show that, over the last 30 years and the last decade, net shareholder payouts have been moderate and investment and cash balances have increased. In sum, the data provide little basis for the view that short-termism in the EU warrants corporate governance reforms.     

Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions

We examine risk profiles of the Portuguese stock market index component stocks using a novel approach to the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Specifically, we estimate the CAPM via fractal regressions that allow studying the marginal effects at selected scales. In this way, we can reveal whether the risk is perceived differently by market participants with different investment horizons. Apart from the analysis itself, we provide new statistical insights into the issue of separating and comparing the scale-specific effects with statistical validity. We find several stocks deviating from an expected risk perception homogeneity across investment horizons. This is true for both analysed periods, i.e. before and after the global financial crisis. There are also several stocks that changed their relationship to the market portfolio in between, which has strong implications for possible portfolio construction. The proposed methodology is not limited to financial topics but can be used in any discipline where the scale-specific marginal effects might be of interest.     

The Structure of Problem Structuring Conversations: A Boundary Games Approach

One of the questions associated with facilitated problem structuring is how the micro level of actors’ multimodal communications, contributes to the emergence of a macro level, framing the possibilities for action in a workshop. This paper shows a way to study this macro level, building the visualization of the conversations’ structure starting from a boundary games theory micro analysis of the interactions. Our empirical evidence comes from following a group of academic consultants working to define a value proposition for their activity. We focus on analyzing two out of nine workshops that were felt diametrically opposite in terms of facilitation and achievements. Moving from the micro towards an upward level, three configurations building the structure are identified—shifting, branching and converging. The work carried out allows us to: (1) visualize the structure of conversations in a problem structuring context, (2) highlight the role of multimodal communications in building the conversations and (3) construct an interpretation bridging the micro and macro readings of a workshop. This knowledge is useful for facilitators guiding the dynamic of a workshop and for researchers looking forward to understanding how micro level interactions build higher levels of the social phenomenon of intervention.     

Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013

In this paper we investigate the long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in the Spanish economy for the period 1851–2013. We develop a cliometric analysis of the debt–growth nexus using novel time series methods. We find some support for a negative relationship between both variables, but no clear evidence of a debt threshold. The estimated long-run elasticity in a one-break model shows a tendency to decrease over time from a nonsignificant 0.011 to a ?0.070, indicating that a 10 percentage increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with 0.70 percentage points lower real economic growth. Indeed, we find for the first subsample (1851–1939) either “decoupling” or “saturation,” while in the second subsample (1940–2000) the long-run elasticity coefficient becomes negative and significant. When we extend our analysis up to 2013, we find a break in 1971 coinciding with the twilight of Franco’s dictatorship and the Spanish transition to democracy.     

Structural comparisons of networks and model-based detection of small-worldness

In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing the “level of small-worldness” of a graph and of detecting small-worldness features in real networks. After discussing the limitations of classical approaches, based on the computation of network indicators, we propose a new procedure, which involves the comparison of network structures at different “observation scales”. This allows small-world features to be caught, even if “hidden” deeply into the network structure. Applications of the procedure to both simulated and real data show the effectiveness of the proposal, also in distinguishing between different small-world models and in detecting emerging small-worldness in dynamical networks.     

Writing on the Wall: Street Art in Graffiti‐free Singapore

The legalization of graffiti in many cities has impacted urban landscapes and the way artists and the public view graffiti, street art and the city as well. This article considers the genesis, process and consequences of legal walls programmes firstly by introducing and differentiating the key terms ‘graffiti’, ‘street art’ and ‘legal walls’, then by examining an empirical case, that of Singapore. Renowned as a graffiti‐averse and litter‐free city, Singapore's recent about‐turn in legalizing illicit art forms illustrates changing government perspectives on creativity and legality in the country. Why the government has effected this change, how artists and members of the public have responded to it and the resultant art forms are critically explored. The conclusion reflects on four key lessons from Singapore for cities in general.