Forecasting stock market volatility and information content of implied volatility index

This study investigates the incremental information content of implied volatility index relative to the GARCH family models in forecasting volatility of the three Asia-Pacific stock markets, namely India, Australia and Hong Kong. To examine the in-sample information content, the conditional variance equations of GARCH family models are augmented by incorporating implied volatility index as an explanatory variable. The return-based realized variance and the range-based realized variance constructed from 5-min data are used as proxy for latent volatility. To assess the out-of-sample forecast performance, we generate one-day-ahead rolling forecasts and employ the Mincer–Zarnowitz regression and encompassing regression. We find that the inclusion of implied volatility index in the conditional variance equation of GARCH family model reduces volatility persistence and improves model fitness. The significant and positive coefficient of implied volatility index in the augmented GARCH family models suggests that it contains relevant information in describing the volatility process. The study finds that volatility index is a biased forecast but possesses relevant information in explaining future realized volatility. The results of encompassing regression suggest that implied volatility index contains additional information relevant for forecasting stock market volatility beyond the information contained in the GARCH family model forecasts.     

Role of industry relatedness in performance of Indian acquirers—Long and short run effects

We explore the effect of industry relatedness on the performance of Indian acquirers using both short run and long run performance measures. We argue that mergers and acquisitions are distinct strategies, because of the unique regulatory structure and equity ownership pattern that exists in India. Their choice depends on control considerations on the one hand and regulatory imperatives on the other. Correspondingly, their sources of value creation or destruction do not always correspond to extant theories of synergy or agency. We present a modified synergy story and illustrate that, while related acquisitions create value and non-related acquisitions destroy value, both related and unrelated mergers create value.     

Modeling and Promoting Organic Food Purchase

This study aims at enhancing organic food product (OFP) purchase by identifying customer segments based on their knowledge and attitude related to organic food along with their demographic profile. Two scales for measuring Knowledge and Attitude related to organic food were developed to measure their levels. The scales have covered six dimensions of organic food: Healthy, Eco-friendliness, Price, Availability, Certification, and Brand. After identifying the customer segments, each segment was further segmented based on their media consumption behavior. Hierarchical followed by K means cluster analysis resulted to six distinct segments with their corresponding subsegments. Cluster analysis was again performed for each customer segment, and a media selection method (MSM) was evolved to effectively communicate with OFP customers. These methods can guide marketers in devising an appropriate communication plan for enhancing OFP purchase.     

A behavioural explanation to the asymmetric volatility phenomenon: Evidence from market volatility index

This study examines how the behavioural explanations, in particular loss aversion, can be used to explain the asymmetric volatility phenomenon by investigating the relationship between stock market returns and changes in investor perceptions of risk measured by the volatility index. We study the behaviour of India volatility index vis‐à‐vis Hong Kong, Australia and UK volatility index, and provide a comprehensive comparative analysis. Using Bai‐Perron test, we identify structural breaks and volatility regimes in the time series of volatility index, and investigate the volatility index‐return relation during high, medium and low volatility periods. Regardless of volatility regimes, we find that volatility index moves in opposite direction in response to stock index returns, and contemporaneous return is the most dominating across the four markets. The negative relation is strongest for UK followed by Australia, Hong Kong and India. Second, volatility index reacts significantly different to positive and negative returns; negative return has higher impact on changes in volatility index than positive return across the markets over full‐sample and sub‐sample periods. The asymmetric effect is stronger in low volatility regime than in high and medium volatility periods for all the markets except UK. The strength of asymmetric effect is strongest for Hong Kong and weakest for India. Finally, negative returns have exponentially increasing effect and positive returns have exponentially decreasing effect on the changes in volatility index.     

Identify Customer Involvement During Organic Food Purchase Through FCB Grid

The study measures the level of customer involvement related to Organic Food (OF) purchase through FCB Grid. A conceptual model was developed to identify the location of OF in FCB Grid by testing the sequencing of Knowledge, Attitude and Purchase Behavior effects. Two scales were adopted from a study by Ghosh et al. (2016 Ghosh, S., Datta, B., &; Barai, P. (2016). Modeling and promoting organic food purchase. Journal of Food Products Marketing, 22, 623–642. doi:10.1080/10454446.2016.1141138[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to measure Knowledge and Attitude pertaining to organic food. Similar such scale with minor moderation was formed for Purchase behavior. 868 responses were analyzed through Structural Equation Model, which indicates that OF falls on the first quadrant of FCB grid and is a high involvement product. This implies Knowledge drives Attitude and Attitude drives Purchase Behavior and demands informative strategy where economic considerations prevail prior to purchase. Organic food production is a sustainable process and positively impacts the livelihood of marginal farmers and will improve the quality of the soil and health of the consumers.     

Size,value and momentum in stock returns: evidence from India

This paper examines the effects of size, value and momentum on the cross-sectional relation between expected returns and risk in the Indian stock market. We find that the conditional Carhart four-factor model empirically describes the variation of cross-section of return better than the unconditional model. When size, book-to-market and momentum effects are controlled in the conditional model, the positive relation of market beta, book-to-market and momentum with expected returns remains economically and statistically significant. However, this evidence is found to be subject to characteristics of test portfolios. The expected returns are sensitive to changes in predictive macroeconomic variables.