Forecasting stock market volatility and information content of implied volatility index

This study investigates the incremental information content of implied volatility index relative to the GARCH family models in forecasting volatility of the three Asia-Pacific stock markets, namely India, Australia and Hong Kong. To examine the in-sample information content, the conditional variance equations of GARCH family models are augmented by incorporating implied volatility index as an explanatory variable. The return-based realized variance and the range-based realized variance constructed from 5-min data are used as proxy for latent volatility. To assess the out-of-sample forecast performance, we generate one-day-ahead rolling forecasts and employ the Mincer–Zarnowitz regression and encompassing regression. We find that the inclusion of implied volatility index in the conditional variance equation of GARCH family model reduces volatility persistence and improves model fitness. The significant and positive coefficient of implied volatility index in the augmented GARCH family models suggests that it contains relevant information in describing the volatility process. The study finds that volatility index is a biased forecast but possesses relevant information in explaining future realized volatility. The results of encompassing regression suggest that implied volatility index contains additional information relevant for forecasting stock market volatility beyond the information contained in the GARCH family model forecasts.     

Facebook posting activity and the selective amplification of earnings disclosures

This study examines the determinants of Facebook activity levels with a particular focus on Facebook activity around earnings announcements. Facebook activity is generally higher for firms with higher levels of analyst following, individual ownership, and trading volume, indicating that it is responsive to investor demand effects. Facebook activity also increases around earnings announcements, with the increase being largely attributable to posts containing earnings news. In general, therefore, firms use Facebook posts to amplify earnings news. Such activity is selective, however; it is lower for firms with high levels of information asymmetry, for firms reporting earnings that exactly meet the consensus analyst forecast amount, and when the earnings news is negative but the accompanying price movement is positive. Hence, firms appear to use Facebook to manage the level of attention paid to earnings news.     

The valdez principles: Implications for corporate social responsibility

The Valdez Principles have been formulated to guide and evaluate corporate conduct towards the environment. While at first glance the code appears to impose enormous new responsibilities on firms, a closer analysis indicates that existing regulations and business practices already require businesses to meet many of the environmental goals sought by its proponents. Likely corporate response to the code is examined against this background and with reference to the experience with other voluntary codes of conduct. It would appear that compliance with the code will yield minimal benefits and non-compliance will impose minimum costs for the environmentally-responsible firm.Joao S. Neves is Associate Professor of Management at Trenton State College where he teaches various courses in Management. A graduate from the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Neves has numerous publications in academic and trade journals. His interests include corporate social responsibility and he has contributed to many conferences. Rajib N. Sanyal teaches international management and human resource management at Trenton State College in Trenton, New Jersey. He obtained his Ph. D. from Georgia State University-Atlanta. His writings can be found in International Journal of Value-Based Management, Journal of International Business Studies, and Labor Studies Journal, among others.     

Bribery in International Business in Post-Soviet Union Countries

Data from 1996 to 2016 on perceived levels of bribe taking in 15 post-Soviet Union countries indicate three distinct groups—Russia and seven contiguous countries are most prone to bribe taking, a set of four countries in the southwest less so, and the three Baltic nations are the least corrupt. Public officials in countries that have high economic freedom and human development, are democracies, and proactively adhere to global anti-bribery treaties are less likely to take bribes. The findings show that despite a common recent history, the countries have evolved differently following the breakup. Implications for international businesses are discussed.     

Whither the pin factory? Modern food supply chains and specialization in India

What is the relationship between smallholder participation in modern food supply chains and their degree of economic specialization? We investigate this research question by looking at whether there is a systematic relationship between whether a household grows crops for a supermarket chain—participation in the supermarket channel—and how concentrated among fewer crops are that household's total landholdings and its output. Using longitudinal data from India, we find that there is no relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for land, but there is a robust statistically significant and negative relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for output. These findings hold true at both the extensive margin (i.e., when considering whether a household participates in the supermarket channel) and the intensive margin (i.e., when considering how much of a household's marketed output is sold through the supermarket chain). This suggests that instead of fostering a greater degree of specialization, participation in modern food supply chains might lead to greater diversification.     

Market ambiguity and individual investor information demand

We examine whether ambiguity in the market leads to an increase in information demand by individual investors. Drawing on the asset-pricing model proposed by Mele and Sangiorgi (2015), which incorporates market ambiguity, we measure individual information demand using daily Google searches and measure market ambiguity using a metric based on the market trades of institutional investors. We find that individual investors increase their information demand during periods of greater market ambiguity. We also provide evidence that information demand from individual investors spikes around earnings announcement days primarily when market uncertainty is driven by net-selling activity. Overall, these results suggest that the disagreement among institutional investors either represents uncertainty or contributes to the uncertainty related to a stock, leading to increased demand for information from individual investors.     

Determinants of Bribery in International Business: The Cultural and Economic Factors

Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) scores for 47 countries reported by Transparency International were used to ascertain determinants of bribe taking in international business. Two sets of independent variables – economic and cultural – were used in a multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that bribe taking was more likely to be prevalent in countries with low per capita income and lower disparities in income distribution. Cultural factors such as high power distance and high masculinity in a country were also likely to be associated with high level of bribe taking. Both economic and cultural factors were important explanatory factors of bribery. Implications of the findings for combating bribery are discussed. Rajib Sanyal is an American Council of Education Fellow at George Mason University for 2004–2005, on leave from The College of New Jersey, where he is a professor of management. Dr. Sanyal has published widely, and is the author of a textbook on International Management.     

The Social Clause in Trade Treaties: Implications for International Firms

Various advocacy groups and primarily domestic-focused firms in developed countries have been pushing governments to include a "social clause" in trade treaties with less developed countries. Such a clause is designed to link trading access to markets in developed countries with improvements in working conditions in poor nations. The implications of such a clause for internationally-focused firms and how managers can effectively deal with human rights issues in their foreign operations are examined. Various constituencies in this debate are identified and an integrated response system on the part of firms is presented. It is suggested that the best policy for firms to adopt would be to acknowledge the relevance of the social clause in today's global economy and work closely with the various advocacy groups to ensure continuing public support while avoiding overly restrictive clauses in international trading agreements.     

Patterns in international bribery: Violations of the foreign corrupt practices act

An examination of U.S. Department of Justice prosecution of violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act shows that officials in less developed countries are the likely recipients of bribes; that bribery occurs more often in the capital‐intensive industries of energy, construction, telecommunications, and military equipment; that firms more often tend to use intermediaries and agents to consummate illicit transactions rather than directly paying the intended beneficiary; and that the overall motivation for bribing is to secure a particular contract. This article reviews the evolving enforcement of the law and recommends a set of managerial actions to reduce corporate liability and improve governance practices. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.