Balanced portfolio via signed graphs and spectral clustering in the Brazilian stock market

Quality & Quantity - A portfolio associated with a balanced signed graph that contains both positive and negative edges is more predictable and risk-averse, and is therefore likely to require...     

Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a repeated prediction market model. We derive the conditions for long-run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content of prevailing prices in the case of fractional Kelly traders with heterogeneous beliefs. It turns out that, apart some non-generic situations, prices do not converge, neither almost surely nor on average, to true probabilities, nor are they always nearer to the truth than the beliefs of all surviving agents. This implies that, in general, prediction market prices are not maximum likelihood estimators of the true probabilities. However, when more than one agent survives, the average price emerging from a prediction market approximates the true probability with lower information loss than any individual belief.     

Mountaineering in Cuba: improvement of true accessibility as an opportunity for regional development of communities outside the tourism enclaves

Mass tourism began in the Caribbean during the middle of the twentieth century. Unfortunately, increasing competition and a change in the motivation of tourists now force the authorities who manage these regions to introduce a new tourism offer that is not based directly on either the 3S (Sun, Sand, and Sea) or 3E (Entertainment, Excitement, Education) model. Hiking, trekking, and climbing, defined as mountaineering, might be one of these. This paper examines the potential for mountaineering in Cuba by verifying its accessibility for tourists. The assessment is based on a framework of true accessibility, which consists of two factors: (1) destination accessibility and (2) real access. Our results show that mountaineering in Cuba should be considered to be one of the key contributors to the development, prosperity, and well-being of all stakeholders, and especially for the communities outside the tourism enclaves.     

Invariances and Diversities in the Patterns of Industrial Evolution: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Industries

This work explores and compares some basic properties of corporate growth process at both aggregate manufacturing level and disaggregated sectoral levels. Using an extensive dataset on Italian manufacturing firms, we investigate which properties of firm growth dynamics are robust under disaggregation. We compare the results obtained with three different definitions of firm size, namely total sales, number of employees and value added. Our analysis suggests that while different sectors are characterized by significant differences in firm size distributions, in the degrees of concentration and in the autoregressive structure of the growth processes, there are also regularities which hold across all of them, such as the approximate unit root nature of the growth process and the power exponential shape of the growth rates density. Together, these “stylized facts” suggest challenging puzzles on the drivers of corporate growth and the resulting industrial structures.     

What is the role of legal systems in financial intermediation? Theory and evidence

We develop a theory’ and empirical test of how the legal system affects the relationship between venture capitalists and entrepreneurs. The theory uses a double moral hazard framework to show how optimal contracts and investor actions depend on the quality of the legal system. The empirical evidence is based on a sample of European venture capital deals. The main results are that with better legal protection, investors give more non-contractible support and demand more downside protection. These predictions are supported by the empirical analysis. Using a new empirical approach of comparing two sets of fixed-effect regressions, we also find that the investor’s legal system is more important than that of the company in determining investor behavior.     

通过预防召回获得边际竞争优势

对消费品公司来说，产品召回是一个严重的问题。在美国，每年因为安全原因有成千上万的产品被召回。如图1所示，在1999年和2001年间，14个主要类别的消费品的召回数量在稳定地增加。保守地估计，每个公司召回的平均成本多于800万美元，包括对消费者的赔偿。对消费品行业来说，这可以转化为多于60亿美元的成本，这个估计不包括市场信誉造成的销售损失和失去的市场份额。     

Seasonal labor constraints and intra-household dynamics in the female fields of southern Cameroon

African agricultural production is modeled as a sequential decision process, with men's labor first allotted to clearing, then women's labor allotted to harvesting. A switching regression is then used to measure the constraints due to clearing labor capacity and harvesting labor capacity. The import of men's clearing labor depends on the valuation of shadow wages. Output appears to be more frequently constrained by husband's clearing labor, and in this situation male labor appears under‐utilized. However, output is also significantly constrained by female harvest labor, although the findings imply that female labor is over‐utilized at this stage.     

The Geopolitics of Protected Areas

ABSTRACT

The conservation enterprise is embedded in ideas of the environment through which it promotes a vision of the world and the relations between the non-human and human. The papers in this forum analyse conservation from various vantage points to draw the links between geopolitics and conservation. The authors use three themes to demonstrate these links. The first theme draws on the concept of environmentality to show the mobilization of ecological rationalities and power towards the creation of protected areas. The second pays attention to networks formed across the distance, and how they influence the location and governance of protected areas. The third focuses on the strategies the conservation lobby uses to align local identities with global conservation ideals and goals. Collectively, these themes highlight features of conservation geopolitics.