Nonparametric measurement of the overall shift in the technology frontier: an application to multiple-output agricultural production data in the Brazilian Amazon

This article develops a simple, but informative, approach to measure technical changes by applying the Malmquist index framework using data envelopment analysis (DEA). A set of directional vectors is used to capture complete information regarding the overall shift in the technology frontier; we then visualize the DEA frontiers in the output space. This approach deals with the problems of sample dependence and non-circularity of technical change measures. It allows us to measure output-by-output technical change. Furthermore, the geometric mean of the technical change measures derived using this approach satisfies circularity. The application of Malmquist indices to the panel datasets of agricultural production in the Brazilian Amazon during the period 1975–1995 indicates a non-Hicks-neutral technical change, with intersection of frontiers during both the 1975–1985 and the 1985–1995 sub-periods. We find moderate progress in cattle production and annual crops, and a decline in perennial crops (bananas). Technological progress is a modest 0.7% during the period 1975–1995 on average. In addition, comparisons with the sample-dependent measures in the preceding studies demonstrate that these indices are usually sensitive to the distribution of actual sampled data points.     

Rise and Fall of Multinational Enterprises in Vietnam: Survival Analysis Using Census Data during 2000–2011*

This study examined the survival of multinational enterprises (MNE) in Vietnam during 2000–2011 using Cox hazard models. The characteristics and ownership structure of firms and the nationality of foreign partners are found to be associated with the probability of firm exit, with a firm having greater capital share of foreign partners surviving longer. An efficient local government requiring less time for bureaucratic procedures and inspections is found to be associated with a lower probability of MNE exiting. Meanwhile, transparency in business regulations and predictability in implementing central government policies accelerate the survival of highly competitive MNE.     

Evaluation by the Aumann and Serrano performance index and Sharpe ratio: Bitcoin performance

We compare Bitcoin performance based on the Aumann and Serrano performance index and Sharpe ratio assuming that asset returns follow the class of discrete normal mixture distributions. The Aumann and Serrano performance index can take into account higher moments of the underlying distribution of assets and is relevant for risk-averse investors. We evaluate Bitcoin performance based on the Aumann and Serrano index relative to the performance of other assets. Our evaluation shows that Bitcoin is rated highly by the Sharpe ratio but rated very poorly by the Aumann and Serrano index. We also find some stock assets can beat Bitcoin by the Sharpe ratio when an investment horizon is monthly.     

Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact

This article analyzes the relationship between trade facilitationand trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region. Country-specificdata for port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment,and e-business usage are used to construct indicators for measuringtrade facilitation. The relationship between these indicatorsand trade flows is estimated using a gravity model that includestariffs and other standard variables. Enhanced port efficiencyhas a large and positive effect on trade flows. Regulatory barriersdeter trade. Improvements in customs and greater e-businessuse significantly expand trade but to a lesser degree than improvementsin ports or regulations. The benefits of specific trade facilitationefforts are estimated by quantifying differential improvementsin these four areas among members of the Asia Pacific EconomicCooperation (APEC). A scenario in which APEC members with below-averageindicators improve capacity halfway to the average for all membersshows that intra-APEC trade could increase by $254 billion,or 21 percent of intra-APEC trade flows. About half the increaseis derived from improved port efficiency.     

Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective

This paper estimates the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows using a panel of disaggregated manufactured goods for the 2000–2001 period for 75 countries. Four categories of trade facilitation are defined, measured and assessed for their impact on bilateral trade flows using a gravity model. The four measures of trade facilitation are: port infrastructure (air and maritime), customs environment, regulatory environments and e‐business infrastructure. The results suggest that raising global capacity halfway to the world average in the four areas would increase trade by $377 billion. Most regions of the world increase exports more than imports. In large part, this result stems from increased exports to OECD markets that is obtained through a country's own effort to improve ports, customs, regulations and services infrastructures. In addition, the results suggest that reform and capacity building in trade facilitation in areas related to GATT Articles V, VIII and X that are under discussion at the World Trade Organisation could expand trade and exports significantly. Many of the reform measures necessary to achieve this goal need not necessarily require large‐scale investment projects, but rather action in legal and administrative reform to facilitate trade.     

Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform

There have been a number of high profile food safety disputes in trade over the past decade. These include the widely publicized case at the World Trade Organization between the US and EU over hormone-treated beef. In particular, consumers in some industrialized countries have expressed concern over the health implications of consuming beef produced with antibiotics and other artificial supplements. Developing countries are affected in a significant way in how these concerns are addressed, as well as the balance between risk and safety reflected in how standards are set. This paper examines the impact of drug residue standards on trade in beef and the trade effect of setting harmonized international standards. We find that if international standards set by Codex were followed in antibiotics, global trade in beef would rise by over $3.2 billion. Among other developing countries, South African exports would rise by $160 million, Brazil's by $200 million, and Argentina's by over $300 million.     

Standards and export decisions: Firm-level evidence from developing countries

Standards and technical regulations set in importing countries have become a rising concern to exporters, especially to those in developing countries. This paper examines the importance of various types of standards in developing-country firms' export decisions. Drawn from the World Bank Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Survey database, we find that different types of standards exhibit sharply distinct relations with firms' intensive and extensive margins of exports. Quality standards are positively correlated not only with firms' average export volume across markets and products but also their export scope, measured by the number of export markets and products. A similar relationship is found between labeling requirements and export scope. Certification procedures, however, are associated with a significant decline in the number of export markets and export products. Our results suggest that different approaches should be taken to address each type of technical regulations. Not all standards need to be negotiated away to boost trade, but negotiations on certification procedures with the aim of reaching Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) can help firms improve economies of scale and scope.