中国农民市民化经济门槛与城市化关系研究:理论与实证

应用“门槛理论”分析了中国农民市民化的经济门槛,动力学模型的推导及其实证研究结果表明:农村居民可支配收入超过“梯级门槛”的农村居民的数量是影响我国城市化发展的速度、进程的关键变量。因此,降低农民市民化的经济门槛、增加农民收入、有效控制城乡居民收入差距扩大化趋势是实现农民市民化的前提条件,同时也是全面推进中国城市化发展必须解决的现实问题。     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

China's food and agriculture: A turning point

The prospects for food and agriculture in China depend upon the prospects for changes in the population between urban and rural sectors, changes in the levels of food consumption in these sectors, and the potential for increasing production in response to increased demand. Prof Ishikawa examines the elements influencing demand pressure, the economics of mechanisation in China, and the economic and social conditions in which the mechanisation can be realised. He concludes that China is facing a new situation in which a significant change in either or both the resource allocation pattern and the incentive system will be required.     

Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia's Debt Securities: The Feldstein–Horioka Paradox Revisited*

In this paper, we find that home bias is still present in all economies and regions, especially in the case of short‐term debt securities, but that there are substantial variations among economies and regions in the strength of home bias, with the eurozone economies, the USA and developing Asia showing relatively weak home bias and advanced Asia, especially Japan, showing relatively strong home bias. We then examine trends over time in foreign holdings of debt securities and find that capital has been flowing from the USA and the eurozone economies to both advanced Asia (especially Japan) and developing Asia, and that foreign holdings of debt securities have been increasing in advanced as well as developing Asia but for different reasons. The main reason in the case of advanced Asia (especially Japan) appears to be higher risk‐adjusted returns, whereas the main reason in the case of developing Asia appears to be the growth of debt securities markets combined with relatively weak home bias and (in the case of short‐term securities) lower exchange rate volatility. Finally, we find that since the global financial crisis, foreign holdings of debt securities have declined (i.e. that home bias has strengthened) in all economies and regions except developing Asia, where they have increased (except for a temporary decline in 2008) but where their share is still much lower than the optimal share warranted by the capital asset pricing market model.     

Healthcare utilization and costs among relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients on carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone

Aim: To compare monthly healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs among adult patients with multiple myeloma (MM) receiving second or subsequent line of treatment (LOT) with carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone.

Methods and materials: Adult MM patients who received carfilzomib or pomalidomide as second/subsequent LOT between 2006 and 2014 were selected from the MarketScan databases. LOT was determined using Medical/pharmacy claims using a published algorithm. For each patient, first LOT with carfilzomib or pomalidomide was defined as index LOT. Patients with first LOT as index LOT, who received other chemotherapy in combination with carfilzomib or pomalidomide, or who underwent stem cell transplant (STC) during index LOT were excluded. Monthly HRU and costs during index LOT were compared using inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) based on propensity scores for receipt of carfilzomib estimated by logistic regression with LOT, patient demographics, Charlson index, comorbidities, pre-index healthcare cost, and receipt of prior SCT as covariates.

Results: After weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced among 114 carfilzomib and 144 pomalidomide patients. Mean (95% CI) numbers of outpatient visits per month were 7.1 (5.2–8.0) with carfilzomib and 4.7 (3.9–6.1) with pomalidomide (p?=?0.006). Otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups in mean monthly HRU and costs or median time to therapy discontinuation. Mean (95% CI) monthly total healthcare costs were $19,776 (15,322–27,748) with pomalidomide and $17,321 (12,412–21,874) with carfilzomib (p?=?0.522).

Limitations: Comparison of carfilzomib vs pomalidomide may be biased if there are unobserved factors not balanced by IPTW. The relatively small sample size limits the power of analyses to detect potential differences between treatment groups.

Conclusions: Monthly HRU and costs are similar among patients with relapse or refractory MM patients receiving carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone.     

Welfare implications of commodity price stabilization with partially flexible production,private storage and buffer-stock costs

Zusammenfassung Wohlfahrtsimplikationen einer Stabilisierung der Güterpreise bei partiell flexibler Produktion, privater Lagerhaltung und Kosten einer buffer-stock-Politik. - In diesem Aufsatz wird die traditionelle Literatur von Waugh-Oi-Massell zur Stabilisierung der Güterpreise auf ein Modell mit rationalen Erwartungen ausgedehnt, das eine partiell flexible Produktion, eine private Lagerhaltung zu Wettbewerbsbedingungen und die Kosten der Stabilisierungsbeh?rde für ihre buffer-stock-Politik umfa\t. Die Stabilisierung der Preise verbessert die Wohlfahrt jeder Gruppe, wenn die St?rungen im eigenen Bereich auftreten, vermindert aber die Wohlfahrt, wenn die St?rungen die Nachfrage oder das Angebot anderer Gruppen betreffen. Der private Sektor insgesamt gewinnt unzweideutig von der Preisstabilisierung, w?hrend die Stabilisierungsbeh?rden immer verlieren. Die Preisstabilisierung mag vielleicht die gesamte Gesellschaft (d.h. den privaten und den ?ffentlichen Sektor) einige Zeit besserstellen, im Endergebnis dürfte sie aber einen Verlust an potentieller sozialer Wohlfahrt verursachen.

---

Résumé Des implications de bien-être d’une stabilisation de prix avec production partiellement flexible, stockage privé et co?ts de stock régulateur. - Cet article étend la littérature traditionnelle de Waugh-Oi-Massell sur la stabilisation de prix à un modèle d’expectative rationnelle qui inclut une production partiellement flexible, un stockage privé compétitif et des co?ts des autorités pour les opérations de stock régulateur. Une stabilisation de prix améliore le bien-être de chaque groupe, si les perturbances se passent dans leurs domains, mais elle réduit le bien-être si les perturbances affectuent la demande ou l’offre d’autres groupes. Le secteur privé en ensemble gagne sans aucun doute de la stabilité de prix pendant que les autorités de stabilisation perdent toujours. Une stabilisation de prix pourrait améliorer la situation de la société entière (c.-à.-d. les secteurs privés et publiques) pour quelque temps, mais éventuellement pourrait générer une perte de bien-être potentiel social.

---

Resumen Implicaciones para el bienestar de la estabilización de precios de materias primas bajo productión parcialmente flexible, almacenamiento privado y costos de buffer stocks. - Este trabajo extiende el modelo traditional de Waugh-Oi-Massell de estabilización de precios de materias primas a uno de expectativas racionales con production parcialmente flexible, almacenamiento privado competitivo y costos de operaciones buffer stock. La estabilización de precios aumenta el bienestar de cada grupo con respecte a sus propias perturbaciones y reduce el bienestar con respecte a perturbaciones que inciden sobre la demanda o la oferta de otros grupos. El sector privado claramente gana con precios estables, mientras que las autoridades responsables de la estabilización siempre pierden. La estabilización podría mejorar el bienestar de la sociedad entera (o sea de los sectores privado y estatal) por un eierte tiempo, mas posiblemente daría lugar a una pérdida potencial de bienestar social.

     

Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach

This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the US labor market. I use structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short‐run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the ‘weakness’ of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that, when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump‐shaped manner, and (iii) gross hires respond little initially, but eventually rise. These results point to the importance of job loss in understanding US labor market dynamics. This pattern also holds with respect to different kinds of shocks that induce the same Beveridge curve relationship. This paper also considers the ‘disaggregate model’, which uses data disaggregated into six demographic groups and incorporates transitions into and out of the labor force. I show that the separation rate continues to play a dominant role among prime‐age male workers, while, for other groups, changes in the job finding rate are more important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Japan's demographic revolution? A study of advertising practitioners' views on stereotypes

This article presents results from a survey of advertising practitioners in Japan focusing on their opinions about the communication objectives and stereotypes, specifically the effectiveness of older spokespersons, their general views on older models in advertising and the effectiveness of older models by product category. We find that these opinions are rather positive. The intention to use a larger number of older models is affected by the perceived effectiveness of older spokespersons and the expected increase in older models and client interest. When targeting an older audience, older spokespersons are seen as particularly effective for the product category of health/medical, but for a general audience it is financial services/insurance. Regardless of product category, they are perceived more effective when targeting an older versus a general audience and when targeting aged 50–64 versus 65 plus.     

The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements

This paper studies the evolution of exchange rate arrangements of almost all countries in the world over the period 1970–1996. It examines both officially reported and empirically observed exchange rate arrangements. Several findings are obtained. First, the relative economic size of countries under fixed exchange rate regimes has not declined as dramatically as the measure based on reported arrangements would indicate. Second, the U.S. dollar has been the most dominant, global anchor currency because many developing economies, particularly those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, have attempted to stabilize their exchange rates to the dollar. Third, the reserve currency composition is determined by the constructed measure of the net currency-area size in addition to the own-economic size of the reserve currency country. Fourth, as a result of the transition to the final stage of EMU, the euro is expected to emerge as the world's second most dominant anchor currency. While the Japanese yen will continue to play a less significant role as nominal anchor, its role in East Asia is expected to rise gradually.J. Japan. Int. Econ.December 1998,12(4), pp. 334–387. World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433 and Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, F33, F36.     

Estimating monetary policy effects when interest rates are close to zero

Using a nonlinear structural VAR approach, we estimate the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks in the presence of a zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and examine the impact of such a constraint on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policies based on the data from Japan. We find that when interest rates are at zero, the output effect of exogenous shocks to monetary policy is cut in half if the central bank continues to target the interest rate. The conditional impulse response functions allow us to isolate the effect of monetary policy shocks operating through the interest rate channel when other possible channels of monetary transmission are present.