Political Connections and Accounting Quality under High Expropriation Risk

Abstract

We examine the impact of political connections and accounting quality among Venezuelan industrial firms, which face one of the highest levels of expropriation risk worldwide. Based on prior literature, we expect a negative relationship between expropriation risk and accounting quality as firms manage earnings to avoid ‘benign’ state intervention. We find that politically connected firms have higher accounting quality than non-connected firms, which is consistent with connected firms’ lower risk of expropriation due to connections with high-level government officials or ruling party members. The relationship between accounting quality and political connections appears to be strongly moderated by institutional features like expropriation risk.     

Mark Duckenfield, Stefan Altorfer, and Benedikt Koehler, eds. History of Financial Disasters, 1763-1995

In a History of Financial Disasters, Stefan Altorfer has assembleda collection of contemporary accounts and journal articles toexamine the history of financial crises since the eighteenthcentury. The collection is divided into three volumes with eachchapter devoted to one financial crisis. The first volume examinesimportant financial disasters prior to 1850, including earlyEuropean financial crises in 1763 and 1772–73, and theAssignat Inflation during the French Revolution. This is followedby a discussion of the 1918–1919 crisis of the SecondBank of the United States, the London Crisis of 1825, the Panic     

Internal control reporting and market liquidity

We investigate the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) on information asymmetry by analyzing the relation between SOX Sections 302 and 404 control reports and market liquidity using bid-ask spreads. Lower market liquidity indicates higher levels of information asymmetry implying that market participants perceive financial statement misstatement risk is higher. If SOX disclosures contain relevant information, then one would expect firms reporting internal control material weaknesses to have lower market liquidity. Accordingly, we find that market liquidity is lower (i.e., bid-ask spreads are higher) for firms reporting ineffective control compared to firms reporting effective control using either annual SOX 404 internal control reports or quarterly SOX 302 disclosure control reports, which suggests that SOX 302 and 404 reports provide useful information for identifying firms with a higher risk of financial statement misstatement. However, we do not find consistent results using two alternative liquidity measures: trading volume and market quality indices. We then examine whether changes in control reports are associated with changes in market liquidity. We generally do not find that firms with improved (deteriorated) control reports experience a larger decrease (increase) in bid-ask spreads or larger increases (decreases) in trading volume and market quality indices compared to other firms, suggesting that market participants do not discern a change in information asymmetry when the effectiveness of internal controls over financial reporting changes.     

Supersanctions and sovereign debt repayment

What might happen if a third-party entity had the power to implement fiscal reforms and/or punish sovereign debt defaulters? In contrast to recent history, extreme sanctions such as gunboat diplomacy and “fiscal house arrest” were used to punish debt defaulters during the period 1870–1913. We find that, after a “supersanction” was imposed, a country improved its fiscal discipline. As a result, ex ante default probabilities on new issues fell dramatically and the country spent no additional time in default. Our results suggest some type of external fiscal or monetary control may be effective in imposing discipline on serial debt defaulters.     

Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed

We use the founding of the Federal Reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort. We examine stock return and interest rate volatility during September and October, when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest. Stock volatility fell by 40% and interest rate volatility by more than 70% following the monetary regime change. The drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis, however. Because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises, our results suggest that the existence of the Federal Reserve reduced liquidity risk.     

Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica

Although it has been well established that financial volatility is related to news and macroeconomic shocks, less emphasis has been placed on the importance of underlying economic and political stability. In this paper we study the behavior of consol returns since 1729 and identify a greater-than-50% decline in volatility from the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 until the First World War. News events and macroeconomic variables cannot account for this extended period of reduced volatility. Underlying political stability under Pax Britannica seems to be a more likely explanation.     

Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment

A natural experiment is used to study exchange rate depreciation and perceived sovereign risk. France suspended coinage of silver in 1876 provoking a significant exogenous depreciation of all silver standard countries versus gold standard currencies like the British pound – the currency in which their debt was payable. The evidence suggests an exchange rate depreciation can significantly increase sovereign risk if a country is exposed to foreign currency debt. We implement a difference-in-differences estimator and find that the average silver country's spread on hard currency debt increased over ten percent relative to non-silver countries.     

Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market

This article introduces a new high-frequency time series of Confederate money prices taken from the newspapers of Richmond and leading cities in the Eastern Confederacy. The new grayback series is tested for turning points. The empirical analysis suggests that turning points in the Confederate grayback market were different from those identified in the Northern greenback market by Willard, Guinnane, and Rosen (1996). It appears that war did not always have symmetric effects on Northern and Southern money prices. Financial and commercial matters fluctuate under the successes and reverses of the war like ebb and tide, and it is not to be wondered that under the great military events that are now transpiring [Gettysburg], there should be a suspension of operations in [gold] trade. (Richmond Examiner July 9. 1863. p. 1)