Marx‐biased technical change and income distribution: A panel data analysis

This paper provides a further empirical evaluation of the Neoclassical theory of distribution as opposed to Marx‐biased technical change (MBTC) using a series of panel estimators. We argue that a panel data analysis is instrumental in increasing the efficiency and validity of the test. Our results generalize previous findings in providing support for MBTC and against the Neoclassical theory of income distribution.     

Multi-scale tests for serial correlation

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial correlation in the presence of dependence. Such decomposition can be carried out iteratively, each wavelet filter leading to a rich family of tests whose joint limiting null distribution is a multivariate normal. We illustrate the size and power properties of the proposed tests through Monte Carlo simulations.     

Lessons From Italy: A Good Pension System Needs an Effective Broader Social Policy Framework

Intereconomics - Italy, which is sometimes considered a laggard in terms of social and economic reforms, can boast a pension system that is, by and large, functioning sufficiently well in terms of...     

Opt Out or Top Up? Voluntary Health Care Insurance and the Public vs. Private Substitution

We investigate whether in a mixed insurance system, people enrolled into voluntary health care insurance (VHI) substitute public consumption with private (opt out) or just enlarge their private consumption without reducing reliance upon public provisions (top up). We specify a joint model for public and private specialist visits counts, allowing for different degrees of endogenous supplementary insurance coverage. We find evidence of opting out: richer and wealthier individuals consume more private services and concomitantly reduce those services publicly provided through selection into for‐profit VHI. Accounting for VHI endogeneity in the joint model of the two counts is crucial to this conclusion.     

Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

Roy Harrod and traditional theory

In 1926 and 1936 Sraff and Keynes attacked the methodological core of traditional economic theory by showing that the premises of partial equilibrium analysis were mutually inconsistent.

this paper aims to show that Harrod neglected Sraffa and Keynes's logical arguments, and only admitted that the tacit assumptions under discussion restricted the domain of validityof the theory to special cases: perfect competition and statics. He then proceeded to generalize the theory to imperfect competition and dynamics by applying the principles (but not the instruments) of traditional analysis. The definition of these domains thus aimede at rescuing as mush as possible from the orthodox approach.     

Wage bargaining and induced technical change in a linear economy: Model and application to the US (1963–2003)

In a simple one-sector, two-class, fixed-proportions economy operating at full capacity, wages are set through generalized axiomatic bargaining à la Nash (1950). As for choice of technology, firms choose the direction of factor-augmenting innovations to maximize the rate of unit cost reduction (Kennedy, 1964, Funk, 2002). The aggregate environment resulting by self-interested decisions made by economic agents is described by a two-dimensional dynamical system in the employment rate and output/capital ratio. The economy converges cyclically to a long-run equilibrium involving a Harrod-neutral profile of technical change, a constant rate of employment of labor, and constant input shares. The type of oscillations predicted by the model matches qualitatively the available data on the United States (1963–2003). Institutional change, as captured by variations in workers’ bargaining power, has a positive effect on the rate of output growth but a negative effect on employment.     

The influence of retailing-mix levers on private label market share: The case of the Italian FMCG market

An in-depth analysis of the impact of retailing-mix levers on private label market share in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Italy is made. The direction and intensity of the impact of assortment, price and sales promotion is measured for different product categories. OLS and GMM regressions run on an IRI Group dataset indicate a strong positive effect of product range, which can be considered as a proxy of on-shelf brand visibility. Increasing private label assortment share thus appears to constitute the key supply-side factor in augmenting sales share on the Italian grocery retailing market.     

Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios

A recent literature has shown that REIT returns contain strong evidence of bull and bear dynamic regimes that may be best captured using nonlinear econometric models of the Markov switching type. In fact, REIT returns would display regime shifts that are more abrupt and persistent than in the case of other asset classes. In this paper we ask whether and how simple linear predictability models of the vector autoregressive (VAR) type may be extended to capture the bull and bear patterns typical of many asset classes, including REITs. We find that nonlinearities are so deep that it is impossibile for a large family of VAR models to either produce similar portfolio weights or to yield realized, ex-post out-of-sample long-horizon portfolio performances that may compete with those typical of bull and bear models. A typical investor with intermediate risk aversion and a 5-year horizon ought to be ready to pay an annual fee of up to 5.7 % to have access to forecasts of REIT returns that take their bull and bear dynamics into account instead of simpler, linear forecast.     

Technical Change, Growth and Trade: New Departures in Institutional Economics

This article analyses the main theoretical and policy issues emerging from the literature on the evolutionary-institutional economics of technical change, the four distinguishing characteristics of which are that technology is often proprietary in nature; only a part of knowledge is codifiable in handbooks, blueprints, patents, and so on; there are fundamental variations in the above two points across different technological fields; and the evolution of knowledge is highly path-dependent.