Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans: the case of baltic states

Empirica - This study examines selected macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans (NPLR) for a panel of 21commercial banks from the Baltics States (Estonia, Latvia and...     

Does tourism really cause stress? A natural experiment utilizing ArcGIS Survey123

ABSTRACT

Tourism related stress has recently been revealed as an issue for tourism host community residents. Prior studies have relied on directly asking residents if tourism caused them stress, resulting in possible participant priming. This study utilized the ArcGIS Survey123 app to collect data on resident stress from a community with high levels of tourism visitation and a community with low levels of tourism visitation. During the study, researchers never mentioned tourism. Half of study participants in the community with high tourism visitation discussed tourism directly as a stressor, accounting for almost 5% of all stressful experiences, while no participants in the community with low tourism visitation mentioned tourism as a stressor. Geospatial data revealed that tourism related stressors occurred outside of the ‘tourism zone’ in the community with high tourism visitation, and tourism related stressors mirrored perceived tourism impacts measured in a post experiment survey of study participants.     

Share trading activity and the rise of the rentier in the UK before 1920*

Abstract

Using a hand-collected dataset, we examine share trading activity over the period 1882–1920 for the North British and Mercantile Insurance Company, one of the largest UK companies of the time. Our main finding is that the steady flow of rentiers into the shareholding constituency of this company stymied share trading activity. Another important finding is that share trading still occurred during the closure of the stock exchange in 1914, but on a much-reduced scale. We also find that there was a substantial boom in share trading and in insurance stock prices after World War I.     

HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS OF THE ACA MEDICAID EXPANSION ON HOSPITAL FINANCIAL OUTCOMES

This study examines the effect of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion on hospital financial outcomes. A key innovation relative to prior studies is that we explicitly account for heterogeneity across states in the timing and extent of the expansion as well as across hospital types. We find that Medicaid expansion led to a decrease in uncompensated care expenditures and an increase in average operating margins. The effects were larger in states where the Medicaid expansion led to a greater increase in program eligibility. Operating margins improved most for public hospitals and facilities located in rural areas. (JEL I11, I13, I18)     

Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.     

Design of Digital Agricultural Extension Tools: Perspectives from Extension Agents in Nigeria

Given the marked heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of digital extension tools to provide site-specific information. Empirical ex-ante studies on the design of digital extension tools and their use are rare. Using data from a choice experiment in Nigeria, we elicit and analyze the preferences of extension agents for major design features of ICT-enabled decision support tools (DSTs) aimed at site-specific nutrient management extension advice. We estimate different models, including mixed logit, latent class and attribute non-attendance models. We find that extension agents are generally willing to use such DSTs and prefer a DST with a more user-friendly interface that requires less time to generate results. We also find that preferences are heterogeneous: some extension agents care more about the effectiveness-related features of DSTs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritise practical features, such as tool platform, language and interface ease-of-use. Recognising and accommodating such preference differences may facilitate the adoption of DSTs by extension agents and thus enhance the scope for such tools to impact the agricultural production decisions of farmers.     

Motivations to grow energy crops: the role of crop and contract attributes

Perennial energy crops are a promising source of bioenergy whose production involves production risks, long‐term commitment of land and need for crop‐specific investments without the coverage of crop insurance potentially available for conventional crops. We conduct a choice experiment in five states in the Midwestern and South‐central regions of the U.S. to examine the effect of crop‐contract attributes on the joint discrete‐continuous choice decisions to adopt an energy crop and convert acres to it from a status quo use, while controlling for the effect of various farmers’ risk and time preferences, sociodemographic characteristics, and availability of crop insurance for conventional crops. We find robust evidence that high discount rates, high upfront establishment costs and need for crop‐specific investments create disincentives for adoption and allocation of land to energy crop production. The effects of riskiness of returns and risk aversion are less robust across specifications. The effect of conventional crop insurance on the energy crop adoption decision differs across types of insurance; in particular, farmers with revenue insurance are statistically significantly less likely to adopt an energy crop. Our results have implications for the design of effective contracts and policy incentives to induce the production of energy crops.