Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance

It is often argued that negotiating with terrorists will encourage terrorist attacks. To date, corroborating empirical evidence is scarce. Using ITERATE data, we investigate the impact of conceding to terrorist demands on terror activity. We restrict attention to hostage events with clear‐cut demands from terrorists. Our sample period runs from 1978 to 2005 and comprises 1435 events in 125 countries. Estimating a flexible and dynamic Structured Additive Regression model, we find that the percentage of successfully negotiated events has a nonlinear effect on future terror intensity consistent with our simple theoretical model. More specifically, although moderate rates of negotiation increase the number of future terror events, higher negotiation rates tend to have the opposite effect. The estimated threshold is around 20%.     

Trans‐Tasman Transmission of Government Spending Shocks

This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal shocks between two closely‐linked, open economies. We estimate impulse response functions using a semi‐structural vector auto regressive (VAR) model and quarterly data from Australia and New Zealand for the period 1973:3–2008:4. We compare our empirical results with impulse response functions from a calibrated two‐country international real business cycle model with habit formation and adjustment costs to investment. We show that a positive shock to Australian government consumption leads to an increase in Australian output initially and then to a decline in the medium term, while the New Zealand output is negatively affected both in the short and medium term. This result is in line with the recent literature that reports beggar‐thy‐neighbour effect of positive government spending shocks.     

Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty

The available evidence on the effects of political variables on both returns and volatility of aggregate stock indices is scant and mixed. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to a panel dataset of 17 parliamentary democracies spanning the post-war period until 1995, we test the robustness of political variables in explaining stock returns and stock return volatility. While we find that the influence of political variables on excess returns is weak, there is evidence of some political variables explaining return volatility.     

Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada

This paper investigates the response of major macroeconomic variables to four different types of tax policy innovations in Canada within a VAR framework. The positive tax multipliers documented in the previous literature are found only for corporate tax innovations. Our results indicate that different taxes affect output differently, and imply that the composition of total taxes may be a major factor behind cross-country variation in the sign and magnitude of total tax multipliers.

Beggar thy Neighbor? The Transmission of Fiscal Shocks from the US to Canada

This paper investigates how innovations in income taxes and government expenditures originating in the US affect the US economy, and how these effects are transmitted to the Canadian economy. Using a semi-structural VAR model and data for both countries for the 1961:1–2004:3 period, we find that fiscal policy innovations originating in the US are transmitted to the Canadian economy by international trade and capital flows through interest rate and exchange rate channels. Unanticipated shocks to US government expenditures have beggar thy neighbor effects on Canada. US output increases and Canadian output decreases in response to a positive shock to US government expenditures. In response to an unanticipated increase in US income taxes, US output declines while US and Canadian real interest rates rise. The response of Canadian output, however, is not significantly different from zero.

SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT THE COMPOSITION OF TAX‐BASED STIMULUS PACKAGES?

We investigate the effects of tax policy shocks on the U.S. economy over the 1972:3–2008:4 period within a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Disaggregating tax shocks suggests that the positive output multipliers documented for total taxes by the previous literature are present only for indirect tax innovations. We also show that both labor and corporate taxes have similar effects on output, with labor tax multipliers being slightly larger in magnitude. The positive and negative responses of inflation following respectively corporate and labor tax shocks imply that former shocks work through aggregate supply, whereas the latter work predominantly through aggregate demand. (JEL C32, E62, H20)     

A noncooperative view on two airport cost sharing rules

In this paper we model cost allocations for airport problems by using cooperative game and noncooperative game approaches. We relate the cost allocations given by the nucleolus and the egalitarian allocation to those given by the Nash outcomes of the noncooperative game.     

Contests over joint production on networks

We consider a network of heterogeneous agents where each edge represents a two‐player contest between the respective nodes. In these bilateral contests, agents compete over an endogenous prize jointly produced using their own contest efforts. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of Nash equilibrium and characterize the equilibrium total effort for every agent. Our model has insightful results regarding the network type, that is, depending on whether the network is bipartite or nonbipartite. Finally, considering the sum of all expected utilities as an efficiency notion, we investigate the optimal network structure.     

Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size Versus National Effects

Open Economies Review - This paper examines financial spillovers between the four largest equity markets (by market capitalization) in the GCC region using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) framework that sheds...     

The determinants of privatization prices: evidence from Turkey

This paper analyses the determinants of privatization prices in a multi-industry study using a sample of 68 recently privatized firms from Turkey. Results show that revenue and market characteristics are significant determinants of privatization prices while current cost and profit indicators are not. It is argued that potential buyers regard these state firms as inefficient, therefore do not take into consideration their current costs and profits in determining their value. When the dependent variable is altered by dividing the firm's privatization price by the firm's sales (revenues), it is found that sales-adjusted privatization prices are responsive to firms profit margins. However, this result does not hold when the sample is restricted to a single industry. Profit margins along with other profitability and firm efficiency measures are no longer significant determinants of sales-adjusted privatization prices in the cement industry analysis. Unexploited production opportunities measured by capacity utilization ratios, and complete private ownership resume a more important role.