Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

Cognitive ability and human behavior in experimental ultimatum games

Recent researches have shed light on the effect of cognitive ability on economic decision-making. By measuring cognitive ability applying Raven's progressive matrix test, we obtain two significant results that this effect affects decision-making in two types of experimental ultimatum games. First, the higher the cognitive ability, the larger the amount a sender offers when the offer is smaller than or equal to the half split. Second, the higher the responders’ cognitive ability, the smaller the offer they accept, when they accept it or not with the strategy method. This study not only finds new factors that affect decision-making in experimental ultimatum games, but also provides more evidences that cognitive ability influences economic decision-making.     

中国区域农业科技资源配置能力及比较优势研究*——基于省级农业科学院视角

[目的]通过测算各地区农业科技资源的配置能力,分析其比较优势并找出不足以便弥补差距,促进各区域农业科技配置能力的提高,为各地区农业经济的发展提供支持。省级农业科学院作为各省市规模最大、综合实力最强的农业科研机构,是农业科技创新的重要主体之一,分析其科技资源配置能力具有重要的现实意义。[方法]基于2009—2016年相关数据,遴选了有代表性的评价指标体系,运用突变级数法计算农业科技资源配置能力,运用NRCA模型定量分析农业科技资源配置效益的比较优势。[结果]山东农业科学院科技资源配置能力位居全国第一,甘肃、江苏、青海农业科学院分别在农业科技人力、物力、财力资源方面具有明显的比较优势。[结论]省级农业科学院科技资源配置能力区域差异十分明显,但区域格局变化不大,且大致与各地区经济实力相吻合;农业科技资源配置能力较高的农业科学院大多在农业科技物力资源配置效益方面具有比较优势,在农业科技人力、财力资源配置效益方面不具备比较优势。     

基于均方差法的郑州市土地综合承载力评价

［目的］开展土地综合承载力评价是科学编制国土空间发展战略的基础。通过构建包含水土资源承载力、经济承载力和生态承载力3个维度土地综合承载力评价指标体系，定量刻画郑州市城市土地综合承载力的特征与轨迹。［方法］运用均方差法，选取2010—2016年郑州市城市土地综合承载力评价指标，分析其土地综合承载力特征。［结果］（1）总体上，郑州市城市土地综合承载力不断增强，水土资源承载力呈现先升—降—升的动态演变特征； 经济承载力持续增长，这源于郑州市土地经济效益的大幅提升； 生态承载力呈现波动性增强的演变特征。（2）郑州市城市土地综合承载力经历了较低—中等—较高发展历程，但土地综合承载力处于低层次的较高阶段，仍有较大提升空间。（3）为提高郑州市城市土地综合承载力，应加快“多规合一”规划的编制，科学划定城市增长边界和“三生”空间，转变城市发展理念，优化发展发展路径，提升城市土地综合承载力水平。［结论］郑州市城市土地综合承载力仍有较大提升空间，应加快建立土地综合承载力扩容的有效机制。     

Large scale infrastructure investment and economic performance – a case study of Oresund

We analyse the effect of a large scale infrastructure investment, namely the construction of the Oresund bridge, on the local and supra-regional economy. We employ the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual regions that mimic the trajectory of Malmo and Southern Sweden without treatment. Our results point to a positive effect. However, placebo tests in space and time only reveal statistical significance at a larger regional level. The results suggest that spillover effects are eminent.     

Fuzzy modelling of static system optimum traffic assignment problem having multi origin-destination pair

Traffic congestion is an unpreventable problem to avoid in a transportation network and it has negative effects on traffic accident, time wasting, traffic delay and safety problem. Besides, in transportation networks, drivers do not want to deal with traffic jam while traversing between specified origin-destination pair. Therefore, traffic assignment (TA) is imperative to improve traffic management, transportation safety, time, and cost savings. System Optimum Traffic Assignment Problem (SOTAP) is a kind of TA model which aims to minimize the total system travel time on the network, and satisfies the flow conservation constraints. To model the SOTAP more realistically, the imprecise parameters can be taken as fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we focus on converting the conventional SOTAP to a fuzzy quadratic programming problem (QPP) which is named System Optimum Fuzzy Traffic Assignment Problem (SOFTAP). Here, link travel time is expressed with BPR function as generally used in the literature by converting to fuzzy except link-dependent parameters. Thus, the nonlinear objective function of SOFTAP is expressed in terms of fuzzy link flows and fuzzy link travel times. A solution approach from the literature is modified to the reconstructed SOFTAP.     

一种级联两箱通用数字预失真器及其辨识算法

提出了一种由单形规范线性分段(SCPWL)函数与记忆多项式级联的数字预失真器，并给出了复数域两步最小二乘参数辨识算法。不同于以往一种预失真器适用一种功放模型的情况，所提的预失真算法利用SCPWL函数的分段特性以及记忆多项式的非线性记忆特性，在完成参数辨识的同时自动地调整结构，可适用于传统以及强非线性新型功放模型的线性化补偿。将所提预失真器分别应用于传统记忆多项式、两箱模型以及新型包络跟踪功放。经过计算机仿真，功放输出的幅频特性和频谱曲线表明所提预失真器能够有效地补偿多种功放的非线性特性。算法仿真比较结果也表明，针对包络跟踪功放，所提复数两步最小二乘算法的邻道泄漏比(ACLR)可改善约35 dB，性能优于最小均方(LMS)类算法约30 dB。     

乌蒙山片区绿色减贫指数分析

[目的]通过分析2012年和2014年乌蒙山片区绿色减贫指数,评价该地区不同年份扶贫效果,这也为今后各项扶贫政策的实施提供理论参考。[方法]文章依据中国绿色减贫指数指标体系,从经济增长绿化度、资源利用与环境保护程度、社会发展能力和扶贫开发与减贫效果4个方面,以人均地区生产总值、单位地区生产总值能耗等27个因子作为评价指标,利用线性加权综合法分析2012年和2014年经济增长绿化度、资源利用与环境保护程度、社会发展能力和扶贫开发与减贫效果指标值,最终确定绿色减贫指数。同时,分析片区内各贫困县波动较大的第三产业增加值比重、单位耕地面积化肥施用量、城乡收入比和农村人均纯收入增长率等指标。[结果]2014年相比2012年,乌蒙山片区经济增长绿化度、资源利用与环境保护程度和扶贫开发与减贫效果指标值上升,社会发展能力指标值降低,绿色减贫指数提高了15.40%。各县第三产业比重均降低,但农村人均纯收入都有提高。四川省10个县单位耕地面积化肥施用量增加。四川省除叙永县和美姑县,贵州省除赤水市,片区内的各贫困县城乡收入比降低。[结论]2014年,乌蒙山区在落实国家扶贫规划上取得了较好的成效。但各县之间差距较大,在今后的扶贫攻坚中,需要从不同地区的实际情况出发,了解贫困类型和贫困程度,考察当地资源储备和环境现状,统筹区域发展。     

Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection

This paper discusses the specifics of forecasting using factor-augmented predictive regressions under general loss functions. In line with the literature, we employ principal component analysis to extract factors from the set of predictors. In addition, we also extract information on the volatility of the series to be predicted, since the volatility is forecast-relevant under non-quadratic loss functions. We ensure asymptotic unbiasedness of the forecasts under the relevant loss by estimating the predictive regression through the minimization of the in-sample average loss. Finally, we select the most promising predictors for the series to be forecast by employing an information criterion that is tailored to the relevant loss. Using a large monthly data set for the US economy, we assess the proposed adjustments in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise for various variables. As expected, the use of estimation under the relevant loss is found to be effective. Using an additional volatility proxy as the predictor and conducting model selection that is tailored to the relevant loss function enhances the forecast performance significantly.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.