国家战略能力与世界和平

战争产生的根源在于资源的绝对有限性与发展的绝对无限性的矛盾,本世纪初以来发生的战争使人们认识到全球化时代世界并不和平,世界充满战争风险。国家战略能力的高低是国家兴衰的关键。国家战略能力是战略文化、战略思维和战略管理的有机统一。中共十六大之后,中国的战略文化氛围、战略思维能力、战略管理能力在建立“和谐世界”的目标下正迅速提升;相反,美国和日本的战略能力都在快速衰落。     

由邓小平的"世界格局观"所引起的思考

世界经济一体化、人类的全球化作为一种发展进程 ,正在加快它的脚步。由此而带来的一系列问题 ,尤其是摆在发展中国家面前的问题 ,不但是影响国际政治的重大因素 ,更是决定这些国家的前进方向和发展策略的现实基础。回顾邓小平的国际政治理论将使我们明晰时代感、加强自我定位的科学性、提高国际适应能力。     

中国共产党领导下的百年审计事业发展与作用发挥

中国共产党自1921年建党以来,就一直高度重视审计在党的事业发展中的重要角色。审计事业在百年党史中获得蓬勃发展,并且在党和国家事业发展不同阶段中发挥了重要作用。审计在新时代背景下应对现存问题做出进一步改革,从而更好地发挥审计在国家治理中的监督作用。     

Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Comparing Alternative Approaches. Introduction and Overview

Protecting human health is a primary goal of environmental policy and economic evaluation of health can help policy-makers judge the relative worth of alternative actions. Economists use two distinct approaches in normatively evaluating health. Whereas environmental economists use benefit-cost analysis supported by monetary valuation in terms of willingness-to-pay, health economists evaluate interventions based on cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis (CEA), using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) or similar indexes. This paper provides background on the controversy about the relative merits of these approaches and introduces the remaining papers in the special issue. These papers (with one exception) were presented at a conference sponsored by the Department of Economics at the University of Central Florida with support from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Although CEA might not lead to substantially different implications for environmental policy than benefit-cost analysis, and QALY may provide a benefit transfer tool to fill gaps in the morbidity valuation literature, the papers in this issue raise serious concerns about the suitability of QALY-based CEA for environmental regulatory analysis. QALY does not in general appropriately represent individual preferences for health and CEA is neither independent of income distribution nor adequate to assess efficiency.     

房地产还原利率的构成与测算

从分析投资的风险补偿入手，提出了房地产还原利率的构成和测算公式，同时指出了构成房地产还原利率的银行利率应是复利计算方式下，相应年期的利率，然后探讨了房地产还原利率各构成部分的测算过程，并以中国房地产市场个人住房抵押贷款市场为例，给出了不同收益年限的房地产还原利率参考数据。     

未来三十年我国及省际人口变动趋势

分析了我国人口的变动特点,并对未来三十年我国及省际人口的变动趋势作了预测,论述了我国未来人口的空间分布变动特点。     

The Load Model: an alternative to QALY

Background: QALYs are widely used in health economic evaluation, but remain controversial, largely because they do not reflect how many people behave in practice. This paper presents a new conceptual model (Load Model) and illustrates it in comparison with the QALY model.

Methods: Load is the average annual weight attributed to morbidity and mortality over a defined period, using weightings based on preference judgements. Morbidity Load is attributed to states of illness, according to their perceived severity. When people are in full health, Load is zero (no morbidity). Death is treated as an event with negative consequences, incurred in the year following death. Deaths may be weighted equally, with a fixed negative weight such as ?100, or differ according to the context of death. After death, Load is zero. In a worked example, we use the standard gamble method to obtain a weighting for an illness state, for both Load and QALY models. A judge is indifferent between certainty of 1.5 years’ illness followed by death, or a 50/50 chance of 1.5 years’ full health or 1-year illness, each followed by death. The weightings calculated are applied to a hypothetical life, 72 years in full health followed by 3 years with illness then death, using both models. Three other hypothetical outcomes are also compared.

Results: For an example life, the relative size of the morbidity component compared with the mortality component is much higher in the Load model than in the QALY model. When comparing alternative outcomes, there are also substantial differences between the two models.

Conclusions: In the Load model the weight of morbidity, relative to mortality, is very different from that in the QALY model. Given the role of the QALYs in economic evaluation, the implications of an alternative, which generates very different results, warrant further exploration.     

加、美边界国际和平公园建设对“泛珠三角”经济可持续发展的启示

国际和平公园是自然资源跨界保护的一种具体运用,它是以生态完整性为基础,以可持续发展为根本目标的一种新的发展理念。泛珠江三角洲作为一个经济区域,其在形成基础与发展模式及发展理念上同跨界保护异曲同工。本文以世界上第一个国际和平公园——加、美边界的沃特顿—冰川国际和平公园为例,挖掘跨界保护的根本思想与管理策略,为"泛珠三角"经济的可持续发展提供借鉴。     

十年建设时期民族区域自治的曲折发展

从1957年到1966年的近10年，是我国开始全面建设社会主义的时期，也是我国民族区域自治曲折发展的时期。在这一时期，民族区域自治呈现出成绩与失误并存、经验与教训交织的双重特征。     

中国温泉旅游研究三十年进展

在过去的30年间,温泉旅游研究文献总量已经积累到了可以综述的阶段,无论是研究活动、研究内容都呈现了可划分阶段的性质并出现了区域分异,评述了中国温泉旅游研究30年进展,并对今后的研究方向进行了讨论。