汇率波动率与中国对主要贸易伙伴的出口

本文研究汇率波动率对中国向三个主要贸易伙伴美国、欧盟和日本出口的影响。通过协整检验,误差修正模型和Granger非因果检验等方法估计变量间长短期的关系。研究表明,中国向美国和欧盟的实际出口与实际汇率波动率存在长期显著的负相关关系,而中国向日本的出口与汇率波动率无关。短期内汇率波动率只影响中国向美国的出口,对向欧盟和日本的出口没有影响。     

单位运输成本变化的供应链模型分析

在需求信息不确定情况下，由一个供应商和一个经销商构成两级供应链系统，考虑谊系统在商品边际运输费用随订货量增加而递减的情况，分析经销商采集需求不确定信息的必要备件，指出供销双方共享需求不确定信息的条件，以厦供应链系统中多个经销商联合订货的优势。     

国际证券市场联动程度的实证分析

20世纪80年代以来,通过国际证券投资分散风险已经形成一种可行手段,然而,随着全球经济一体化趋势的强化,国际证券市场也正在经历着一体化趋势,证券市场联动关系越来越明显,这必然会使国际投资多样化空间变小,进而会侵蚀掉国际多样化投资收益.有鉴于此,本文使用协相关参数分析、平稳性检验、多元协整检验、协整向量参数零配载限制检验、基于VECM的Granger因果性检验等计量技术测度国际证券市场联动程度,为国际证券投资提供量化参考.     

浅析照明系统改造——以福电秦皇岛北山宏福发电有限责任公司厂用照明系统为例

福电秦皇岛北山宏福发电有限责任公司厂用照明系统进行改造。根据照明系统改造具体情况,本文从实际出发,对改造的背景、改造方案、和实现功能进行了重点介绍。     

Erosion mitigation in the Waikato District,New Zealand: economic implications for agriculture

Soil erosion, in its various forms, is caused or aggravated by agricultural activities. Mitigation of surface erosion comprises the construction of shelterbelts, fencing, riparian buffering, and stock reduction. Mitigation of mass‐movement erosion, in turn, takes the form of spaced planting of trees to maintain a persistent, healthy, and complete ground cover. In this article, we assess the economic implications to agriculture of the adoption of mitigation alternatives for erosion control in the Waikato District, New Zealand. The Waikato District presents a spatial pattern of erosion that affects profitability of dairy, and sheep and beef enterprises. We use the Universal Soil Loss Equation and the New Zealand Empirical Erosion Model to estimate erosion figures that are then fed into an economic‐focused, nonlinear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use. Different scenarios are constructed for surface and mass‐movement soil erosion targets ranging from 0% to 50% below baseline levels. We find that achieving surface erosion targets is more expensive than mass‐movement targets, and results in different responses in regional‐level costs, land use, enterprise net revenue, and adoption of mitigation alternatives.     

CO‐INTEGRATING VAR MODELS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper surveys some relevant contributions to the economic literature on co‐integrating vector autoregressive (VAR) models [vector error correction mechanisms (VECMs)], emphasizing their usefulness for economic policy. It further discusses some theoretical aspects that are necessary for a complete understanding of their potential. The theoretical introduction of the co‐integrating VAR model is followed by an illustration of its applications to monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchanges rates as well as in establishing the effects of structural bilateral shocks between countries (the so‐called global VAR, or GVAR, models). Special attention is paid to the VECM capacities of being used in conjunction with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and of jointly specifying the short‐ and long‐run dynamics, thus representing the steady‐state of economic systems (by means of the co‐integration relations) and the short‐run dynamics around it.     

从华为收购美国公司失败看企业如何控制经营风险

在全球经济一体化逐步形成的背景下,中国企业海外并购步伐加快,但从实践看,成功案例少,失败案例多。究其原因,虽然并购失败因素复杂,但企业并购前对交易风险分析与评估不足是关键环节。从风险控制、风险识别、风险评估等各环节分析,企业可将风险评估结果与企业事先确定的风险管理策略进行对比,建立风险预警机制,对达到风险预警线的风险发出预警信号,并分别采取风险规避、风险转移、风险减轻、风险承受等应对措施控制经营风险。     

Co‐movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period.     

中烟工业公司信息系统整合后的基础数据编码管理研究

中烟工业公司对下属生产厂的各类信息系统集成整合后,需构建独立于业务系统的基础数据编码管理平台和交换通道,实现编码的动态管理和与应用系统同步,将其格式定义、业务审核、变更管理、数据发布等处理内容的操作固化,保证编码在各应用系统中的唯一性、一致性。     

对广西演出市场现状的思考

文化产业面对激烈的竞争市场要积极探索文化的深层次发展规律,广西演出有限责任公司利用自身的条件,在经营上广开思路,寻找到一条适合自己的发展道路。