Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

The effect of external supply knowledge acquisition,development activities and organizational status on the supply performance of SMEs

Given the increasingly strategic role of external resources, acquiring knowledge about current suppliers and the broader supply market is an important and demanding task for the purchasing and supply management (PSM) function of a firm. Performance-improvement-oriented application of external supply knowledge present further challenges for the function. To examine this, we draw on the knowledge-based view and develop a hypothesized model in which supply knowledge acquisition drives PSM exploration and exploitation orientations which in turn mediate the organizational status of PSM function in terms of supply performance. We test the model on an SME-focused and survey-based dataset, using structural equation modelling. Our results indicate that an exploitative orientation is associated with knowledge gained from the supply base, whereas an explorative orientation is predominantly associated with supply market knowledge and less with supply base knowledge, suggesting natural pairings. The findings also show how an exploitative development orientation mediates the positive association of the PSM function's organizational status with supply performance. Driven by supply base knowledge, a status-empowered exploitative PSM orientation may suppress supply market based explorative orientation in resource-scarce SMEs, thus appearing to serve as the sole path to supply performance. Our research contributes by pointing out the significance of the knowledge-resource, and the knowledge-based view, in understanding performance in PSM.     

辐射迁移方程--一个K-辛空间上的正则方程

说明了均匀、轴对称、无源介质是一个K-辛空间上的Hamilton系统，Hamilton函数是系统的守恒量；数值计算辐射强度角分布的合理途径是将辐射迁移方程离散成以离散Hamilton函数为守恒量的有限维K-辛空间上的正则方程，并采用保离散Hamilton函数守恒的K-辛算法数值求解．     

精品课程建设漫谈

精品课程要求具有一流教师队伍、一流教学内容、一流教学方法、一流教材、一流放学管理等特点。精品课程建设，就是以现代教育思想为先导，以建设相应层次的、具有较强针对性和适用性的优秀教材为核心，以提高师资队伍素质为前提，以教学内容现代化为基础，以现代信息技术手段为平台，以科学的管理体制为保障。是集观念、师资、内容、技术、方法、制度于一身的整体建设。     

积分循环赛在学校篮球竞赛中的应用研究

为了在学校篮球竞赛中引入积分循环赛，文章针对棋类积分编排存在的三个方面问题，通过采用每轮比赛排名作为配对排序的条件，并对棋类积分编排方法进行了一定的简化移植，经过多次试验性编排，运用电子表格技术设计出了一整套篮球积分编排方法。这种方法可实际运用于篮球积分循环赛的手工编排，并能为实现计算机篮球积分编排提供理论依据。     

Asymptotically optimal estimation of smooth functionals for interval censoring, part 1

Estimation in the interval censoring model is considered. A class of smooth functionals is introduced, of which the mean is an example. The asymptotic information lower bound for such functionals can be represented as an inner product of two functions. In case 1, i.e. one observation time per unobservable event time, both functions can be given explicitly. We mainly consider case 2, with two observation times for each unobservable event time, in the situation that the observation times can not become arbitrarily close to each other. For case 2, one of the functions in the inner product can only be given implicitly as solution to a Fredholm integral equation. We study properties of this solution and, in a sequel to this paper, prove that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the functional asymptotically reaches the information lower bound.     

完善城市整体功能是旧城改造的方向

城市的更新、改造是社会发展的必然 ,如何通过现状调查、分析、研讨 ,找出城市建设的症结 ,使城市趋于完美是城市建设者的历史使命。但现实中 ,片面追求经济效益 ,发旧城改造之财 ,只能使城市变成“崭新的旧城” ,只有按城市发展的固有规律去完善城市的整体功能才是旧城改造的发展方向。     

对计算企业经营活动现金流量的一点思考——从基本会计等式出发

本文旨在通过对基本会计等式的运用,揭示用间接法将净收益调节为经营活动现金流量的内在逻辑性。先对基本会计等式进行逐步的分析,推导出现金流量的计算步骤。在这一过程中,可以清楚的反映出会计报表之间的明晰性。