Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains

Dynamic interactions between policy uncertainty and economic activity, including oil prices, have attracted increasing amounts of scholarly interest, but few studies have considered the inherent feature that the entire market is composed of different stakeholders operating in different time horizons. To fill this gap and address this issue, this paper proposes a multi-scale correlation framework. Specifically, we use the wavelet coherence method and scale-by-scale linear Granger causality tests to explore the co-movement and causality of pairs of economic policy uncertainty indices of G7 countries, China, Brazil, and Russia and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices. Our results show that the interaction between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in the short-term is weak but gradually strengthens towards the long-term, especially when significant historical political or financial events occurred. Moreover, a consistent conclusion is that the interaction is negative in the medium-term, while it is positive in the long-term. Further, Granger causality tests at different time-scales show that no Granger causality from economic policy uncertainty to oil prices exists in the short-term for all sample countries, except the US, while there is a strong unidirectional or bidirectional Granger causality for all researched countries in the medium- and the long-term.     

Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

中俄能源合作现状分析及对策研究

在当今世界，能源已经成为各个国家最关注的问题之一。俄罗斯有着天然的能源优势，是能源供应大国，而中国是能源需求大国，因此，中俄两国开展能源合作拥有广阔的前景。本文在分析中俄能源合作的现状及战略意义的基础上，从理论的角度分析了两国进行能源合作的可行性，并从现实的角度分析了中俄能源合作的障碍，从而对如何进一步加深中俄能源合作提出了对策建议。     

再议我国对美出口与美国GDP增长的相关性——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验

针对高运胜(2004)的病态计量模型,本文通过协整分析认为:我国对美出口与美国GDP增长率之间不存在长期均衡关系,但是我国对美出口与美国GDP之间存在一个正相关的长期均衡关系,美国经济发展有利于我国扩大出口。另一个结论是:美国GDP每增加1美元,我国对美出口增加量是减少的,我国对美出口收入弹性大于0小于1。后面的结论支持了高运胜的分析:我国对美出口产品中劳动密集型产品占有较大比重,需求弹性相对较低。Granger因果关系检验表明:美国GDP是我国对美出口的Granger原因,我国对美出口却不是美国GDP的Granger原因,我国对美出口对美国经济产生不了威胁。通过进一步分析,提出了几个政策建议。     

我国存在最优政府规模曲线吗

本文运用格兰杰方法对我国1978-2004年政府支出与经济增长的因果关系进行检验,结果表明:经济增长是我国政府规模的格兰杰原因,但政府规模不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。这一结论说明我国并不存在最优政府规模曲线,但验证了瓦格纳定律,同时也为我国现阶段的财政政策取向提供了有益的参照。     

外资企业对外贸易与经济增长关系的区域差异分析——基于我国东部和西部地区面板数据的检验

外资企业对外贸易对经济增长的拉动作用已经越来越被理论和实践所证明,但外资企业对外贸易对不同区域经济增长的差异性表现却没有引起足够的重视。本文基于我国东部和西部地区的区域差异,试图从理论与实证的角度就外资企业对外贸易对不同区域的经济影响进行研究,运用面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对东部地区和西部地区的外资企业对外贸易与经济增长的长期关系和短期关系进行了比较分析。揭示出由于技术及产业结构等因素,东部地区已经形成外资企业对外贸易对经济增长的良好促进机制,而西部地区尚未形成。在此基础上,本文提出了通过技术提高产业结构升级促进各地区外资企业对外贸易发展和经济增长的相关政策建议。     

Foreign exchange customers and dealers: Who’s driving whom?

This paper tests the theoretical assumption of the foreign exchange market microstructure that dealers and non-dealer customers interact over discrete trading rounds. An exhaustive frequency-domain analysis reveals that the interaction is limited and mainly due to the instability of financial markets. The principal finding is that the trading activity of dealers is able to predict the customer order flow at low frequencies with wavelengths longer than roughly a week. In all, the evidence shows that non-financial customers are not as passive as some other research has suggested.     

Putting the Cart before the Horse? Re-Examining the Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

In addition to the standard Granger causality, this paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto approach and instantaneous causality test to examine the causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in 10 sub-Saharan African countries utilizing time series data. Findings from both the standard Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto approach are consistent and robust only in five countries where domestic savings and economic growth are completely independent in three countries. For the remaining two, causality runs from savings to growth. However, for the other five countries, findings produced from both causality tests are grossly inconsistent and mixed leaving us under a quandary although the Toda–Yamamoto test is often reliable on account of its ability to avoid misleading results associated with the asymptotic nature of the standard Granger causality test. Our findings further reveal an instantaneous unidirectional causality from domestic savings to economic growth for only Benin, Mali, and South Africa suggesting that savings-led growth is rapid for these countries. We conclude based on our findings that the myriad of ‘evidence’ in earlier studies on savings-growth causality should be treated with caution given that methodological differences can produce misleading results with the potential of misdirecting policy.     

陕西省城市化与城市资源压力的协整检验与因果分析

本文从人口、经济、社会、地域景观四个方面,构建陕西省城市化水平综合评价指标体系,时陕西省城市化水平进行综合测度;同时,构建资源压力指数对陕西省城市资源压力进行定量评价,并对其关系进行了协整检验和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验.结果表明:①1990～2009年期间陕西省城市化综合水平持续提高;②城市资源压力指数与城市化...     

中南五省流通业的发展和经济增长相关性分析——基于面板协整、因果检验方法

本文利用面板协整检验、格兰杰因果检验模型,对中南五省的国内生产总值、批发零售和餐饮业之间的协整、格兰杰因果关系进行检验,研究结果表明：国内生产总值和批发零售、国内生产总值和餐饮业之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;各省的餐饮业、批发零售业对GDP的增长存在显著的促进作用,并且促进程度在各省之间存在明显的差异,其中沿海两省远远高于内地三省;地理位置的空间差异对餐饮业、批发零售业对GDP的长期影响程度存在明显性影响。中南五省整体的面板协整方程估计结果同样表明,批发零售业和餐饮业的发展,促进了各省GDP的增长。