The implications,challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies

Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science for FS remain somewhat opaque. This paper explicitly sets out the challenges for FS that arise from six complexity science concepts: (1) irreversibility of time (2) path dependence 3) sensitivity to initial conditions (4) emergence and systemness (5) attractor states (6) complex causation. The discussion highlights the implications of these challenges for FS tools such as horizon scanning and weak signals, and sets out the benefits of overcoming the challenges to create an explicitly complexity-orientated FS. The discussion concludes with a set of questions summarising the challenge for FS from complexity science with the aim of stimulating a discussion as to how they can be met. The concluding remarks make some initial suggestions in this regard.     

城市轨道交通相邻多车站动态协同限流研究

为应对城市轨道交通车站高峰期客流压力,限流已经成为常态应对措施,而经常采用的限流策略大多针对单个车站,缺少对相邻多个车站的协同考虑。基于客流在车站间的传播效应,以乘客总延误时间最小为目标,以站台及列车能力为约束条件,构建城市轨道交通相邻多车站协同限流决策模型,同时为实现实时动态控制,引入滚动时域控制方法,优化多车站动态协同限流流程。以北京地铁8号线为例,经过相邻若干车站运营数据进行限流策略计算。结果表明,该模型限流可以在不造成车站服务人数损失的同时,将乘客总延误时间降低21%。     

Dynamic incentives and retirement

This paper examines multi-period compensation contracts when retirement is anticipated. Short-term contracts in long-term employment relationships are equivalent to a long-term renegotiation-proof contract. The dynamic of incentive rates is determined by (i) how and in which periods managerial effort affects the contractible performance measures; and by (ii) the time-series correlation of error terms in performance reports. The model explains why long-term investments can decrease while incentive rates increase as managers approach retirement. Earnings persistence is negatively associated to earnings-based incentive rates but, towards retirement, high earnings persistence implies increasing earnings-based incentive rates.     

长期融资与经济增长

三十人小组（G30）将“投资时间区间”作为2012年的研究课题，形成《长期融资与经济增长》报告。报告旨在测算未来全球长期融资需求的规模，发现影响金融体系提供长期融资进而影响未来经济增长的潜在障碍，并提出了促进长期融资的五个目标以及具体建议。     

基于期待视野的综合英语课程调查报告 ——以广东工业大学华立学院为例

综合英语课程是英语专业学生的专业基础必修课,其重要性贯穿整个英语专业的学习中。为了更准确地把握学生对综合英语系列教材的文本解读模式,笔者结合接收美学中的“期待视野”理论,以独立本科院校的英语专业学生为调查对象,针对学生对该门课程的教学目的和文本解读的难度、喜好等方面设计了相应的问题进行了调查。调查的数据显示学生对综合英语课程的期待和认知有明显的差异。调查的结果既有利于教师了解学生的综合英语文本自我解读模式,也能为综合英语系列教材文本解读的课堂教学提供有力的参考数据,辅助相关文本的教学,优化教学效果。     

Network structure and robustness: lessons for research programme design

The information and communication technology (ICT) network of the last two European Research Framework Programmes (FPs) is deeply influenced by two distinct groups of organizations: a small group of hubs (3% of the participants) hold the key to keeping the network together and a second group of non-hub connectors large enough (39% of the participants) with a significant share of the overall networking activity provide a robust base for the network. The ICT network can survive the removal of single important funding instruments such as integrated projects or specific targeted research projects. Increasing policy rhetoric on innovative application in the new FP (Horizon 2020) should be reflected in a shift of core participants from largely public research and teaching organizations to private-sector companies.     

基于滚动时域优化的高速铁路车站到发线动态调整研究

高速铁路车站到发线动态调整是调度指挥工作的重点之一,具有复杂多变、实时性强的特点,亟需实现到发线调整的自动化和智能化。阐述高速铁路车站到发线动态调整问题本质,引入滚动时域调度策略,建立高速铁路车站到发线动态调整模型。该模型为以列车晚点总时长最小为目标的0-1整数规划模型,采用遗传算法求解。以某高速铁路车站为例,根据列车运行图中列车到发时刻和晚点信息进行计算。研究结果表明:该模型可以有效提高到发线调整的实时性,保障列车在车站内稳定运行,为高速铁路车站智能调度提供了研究支持。     

我国参与欧盟研发框架计划的总体情况

欧盟研发框架计划是世界上规模最大的、综合性的官方研发计划,具有研发领域广、投资规模大、延续时间长、参与的机构和人员多等特点。自欧盟第四研发框架计划正式对欧盟以外的国家开放以来,其开放的领域不断扩大,包括信息通讯技术、纳米技术、能源、环境等众多领域。从我国参与欧盟第四至第七框架计划的情况来看,参与项目的数量增长较快,但经费增长缓慢;合作领域由以传统领域为主向高技术领域扩展;参与主体以大学和科研机构为主。目前,欧盟已开始实施"地平线2020"计划,并将推行对等开放、双向合作的国际科技合作方式。我国应认真总结前期参与欧盟框架计划的经验,积极应对新的挑战。     

The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options

European science policy (so-called Horizon 2020) is guided by Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) with the explicit aim of shaping the future. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to the analysis and critique of Europe’s GSCs. The aim is to explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising ‘futures’, that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020. We identify six ways in which filmic and literary representations can be considered creative foresight methods (i.e. through: creative input, detail, warning, reflection, critique, involvement) and can provide alternative perspectives on these central challenges, and warning signals for the science policy they inform. The inquiry involved the selection of 64 novels and movies engaging with notions of the future, produced over the last 150 years. Content analysis based on a standardised matrix of major themes and sub-domains, allows to build a hierarchy of themes and to identify major patterns of long-lasting concerns about humanity’s future. The study highlights how fiction sees oppression, inequality and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature’s dignity as central to, and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. It concludes identifying warning signals in four major domains, arguing that these signals are compelling, and ought to be heard, not least because elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience. It identifies areas poorly defined or absent from Europe's science agenda, and argues for the need to increase research into human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours.     

时代特征鲜明 视野仍可拓宽——评新版《新视野大学英语》与《新时代交互英语》

立足于教学实践,对《新视野大学英语》和《新时代交互英语》两套教材的最新版本进行评价,它们是适合时代发展的好教材,但还应进一步创新理念,开拓视野。