Asymmetric information consolidation and price discovery: Inferring bad news from insider sales

Due to the paucity of sources of negative firm‐specific information, US capital markets have more difficulty identifying and incorporating bad news into stock prices than they do good news. Even though insider selling is a potentially important proxy for undisclosed bad news, researchers have difficulty ex ante identifying information‐based sales due to an inability to separate liquidity‐motivated from information‐based insider trades. We hypothesize that when insiders in multiple firms sell shares of one firm in which they are insiders and at the same time buy shares of other insider portfolio firms, the sale is more likely to be information‐based, since the proceeds are reinvested. Conversely, when an insider sells one firm without purchasing others or sells multiple insider firms the sale is likely liquidity‐motivated. We find that insider sales identified as information‐based using this algorithm are followed by significant negative abnormal returns. Information‐based sales are also more likely to be associated with delistings, earnings declines and earnings restatements. Analysts are also more likely to revise their earnings forecasts downwards for these firms. It is thus possible to ex ante identify insider sales with information content. Our results will be of interest to investors and also to regulators designing insider trading rules.     

Uncertainty Associated with Future Environmental Costs and the Market's Differential Response to Earnings Information

This study examines whether the uncertainty arising from a firm's exposure to future environmental costs (environmental uncertainty) affects the market's price sensitivity to reported earnings. Specifically, when environmental uncertainty is significantly high, are investors more responsive to reported earnings released by 'high-polluting' firms than reported earnings announced by 'low-polluting' firms within the same industry? The initial impact of Title IV (the acid rain provisions) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (1990 CAAA) on the US electric utility industry provides the research setting required to isolate the effects of environmental uncertainty while addressing this question. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) of high-polluting electric utilities are significantly greater than those of their low-polluting counterparts during a predicted period of elevated environmental uncertainty. In adjoining sample years associated with lower environmental uncertainty, we observe no statistical difference in the magnitude of the ERCs between these two groups. In addition, the study's findings suggest that the magnitude of the ERC is increasing in the firm's exposure to future environmental costs, after controlling for other factors that potentially affect ERCs.     

一项关于农村五保供养制度的实证研究——以闽北地区为例

农村五保供养制度是一项具有中国特色保障鳏寡孤独残疾人基本生活权益的制度,也是我国农村社会保障体系的重要组成部分。在实地调查的基础上,分析了闽北地区农村五保供养的现实状况,提出了未来建设农村五保供养制度的若干思路。     

Effet des Evolutions Techniques et des Changements de la Spécialisation Internationale sur les Marchés du Travail et les Systèmes Productifs: Comment les Statisticiens Pourraient-ils Relever les Défis?

Thinking about future needs and about what can reasonably be expected as feasible in the next century, how should producers of statistics direct their activity? Increasing complexity and diversity of needs leads us to recognize that, between producers and users of statistics, a mediating role is more and more often played by analysts and research workers who are requesting above all good data bases. Concerning infrastructures for statistics on productive systems, coordination between accountants and statisticians will be crucial, as well as adaptation of the constraints which, because of excessive worry about confidentiality, could prevent establishment or use of data bases. In an increasingly competitive world, where private firms will sell analyses and informations, particularly on very large enterprises, the public statistical service will remain essential in all respects. Intangible investments, innovations and many aspects of the internal organization of firms will create formidable challenges. Information on employment and labour markets has been much developed during the past decades; but on a few specific and difficult issues progress is still needed: lifecyles in the working-age population, acquisition of knowledge and skills in formal education and on the job, matching labour supplies and demands, and so on. Particular attention will have to be given to the lower levels of cultural and professional skills.     

Are Fundamentals Priced in the Bond Market?*

To date, the discussion of the Lev and Thiagarajan 1993 fundamentals in the prior literature has been exclusively in the context of the stock market. Our study is the first to examine the value‐relevance of these fundamentals for default risk. By focusing on the market for new bond issues, we examine the value‐relevance of the fundamental score using expected rather than realized returns. Also, by focusing on the bond market we provide a different perspective than that brought by prior studies relying solely on stock prices. We find the fundamentals to be priced in the market for new bond issues as indicators of expected future earnings and to be value‐relevant in enabling the market to discern differences in bond credit quality over and above the published bond ratings.     

未来世界能否成为一个“大混合经济”

是否存在两个马克思主义，一个过时了，另一个才能指导当前实践？是否存在两个资本主义，一个已经灭亡，另一个还不会灭亡？未来世界是否会融合为一个“大混合经济”？这些问题关系到对马克思主义经济学的理解，以及对未来世界经济发展走势的分析，很值得认真探讨。     

Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.     

中国期货市场的回顾与展望

中国期货市场产生于中国由计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程中，其形成与发达国家期货市场迥然不同。随着中国经济的逐步市场化，中国经济的逐渐国际化，政府扮演的角色的重要程度势必越来越小，期货市场在市场经济中将会充分发挥其功能，成为中国市场经济体系不可或缺的组成部分。     

浅议我国最佳外汇储备规模

截止到2005年12月底，我国的外汇储备已达到8000亿美元，关于其数额是多是少的争论进行得如火如荼。本文对充足外汇储备给我国经济和社会带来的有利之处进行了理论上的分析后．又采取数学方法对我国2004年最佳的外汇储备数额进行了测算．得出了一个结论：我国的外汇储备并不多。然后，在此基础上对我国外汇储备的管理提出了几点建议。     

东北经济的未来选择与发展战略

东北老工业基地通常是指东北地区的传统工业格局，为了使东北经济能够步入良性发展轨道，从而振兴东北地区。本文针对东北经济发展现状及其面临的艰难选择，对东北经济的未来发展方向进行了科学分析，并提出了东北经济未来发展战略。