中国最优居民消费率的估算及变动机制分析

1978年以来,我国居民消费率的变动特征表现为长期波动下降。为判断居民消费率的运行情况,根据代表性家庭效用最大化估算出最优居民消费率。研究表明,1978-1990年,实际居民消费率与最优居民消费率基本吻合; 1991- 2000年,实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率7.8个百分点;2001-2010年,实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率18.3个百分点。对居民消费率偏低贡献率的分析表明,城镇居民消费率偏低是导致整体居民消费率偏低的主要原因。通过考察预期收入、利率和效用函数改变对最优居民消费率的影响,分析了居民消费率的变动机制。     

Portfolio choice with indivisible and illiquid housing assets: the case of Spain

This paper studies the investment decisions of Spanish households using a unique data-set, the Spanish Survey of Household Finance (EFF). We propose a theoretical model in which households, given a fixed investment in housing, allocate their net wealth across bank time deposits, stocks and mortgage. Besides considering housing as an indivisible and illiquid asset that restricts the portfolio choice decision, we take into account the financial constraints that households face when they apply for external funding. For every representative household in the EFF, we solve this theoretical problem and obtain the theoretically optimal portfolio that is then compared with households’ actual choices. We find that households significantly under-invest in stocks and deposits while the optimal and actual mortgage investments agree. Considering the three types of financial assets at once, we find that the households headed by highly financially sophisticated, older, retired, richer, and unconstrained persons are the ones investing more efficiently.     

The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO₂ emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO₂ emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO₂ emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO₂ during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO₂ that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO₂ than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO₂ emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO₂ emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO₂ being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints.     

中国农村正规与非正规市场的融资差异

本文基于2009年农村微观调查数据,分析农户资金需求及其借款状况,考察其在正规与非正规市场的融资差异。农户资金需求和信贷约束相当普遍。在农村信贷市场,非正规借款占绝对优势,且绝对多数是无息借贷。农村正规与非正规金融市场相互独立运行;前者对后者几乎没有产生“共栖”性有益影响和“竞争”性抑制影响。与非正规融资和市场需求密切相关不同,农信社贷款脱离需求,行政化配置明显。解决农户信贷约束并非仅放开利率那样简单,在拓展农村正规金融的同时,更应引导非正规市场发展创新,鼓励支持农户发展资金互助组织,通过有效措施形成正规市场的促进作用,并强化农信社的市场取向功能。     

中国与印度农户金融服务比较分析

中国和印度两国的农户金融服务体系构成性质相同,均为商业金融、政策性金融和合作金融,但业务运行存在实质差别。通过对两国农户金融服务的深入对比显示:一方面,印度商业金融比例高、政策性金融业务广泛深入、合作金融合作性质明显,值得中国学习和借鉴。另一方面,印度农户金融服务的非生产性质需要引起注意,在完善农户金融服务体系的过程中,需要协调生产性与非生产性金融服务的比例和结构。     

Understanding the determinants of investment reactions to decoupling of the Common Agricultural Policy

The objective of this paper is to identify the determinants of the reactions of farm households to the decoupling of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) focusing, in particular, on changes in on-farm investment behaviour. The paper analyses a sample of 248 farm-households in 8 EU countries, using a non-parametric approach based on classification tree algorithms. The factors emerging as determinants of an increase in on-farm investment as a reaction to decoupling are: specialisation, existence of a successor, the farmer's age, labour management, SFP per hectare, location and expectations. When used, country variables, tend to substitute some of the factors listed above and become the main predictors, followed by labour endowment, specialisation and expectations. While the study confirms the relevance of the main determinants available from the literature, it also emphasises the articulation (non-linearities) of the effects of farm head age, labour management and SFP per hectare on the reactions to decoupling. This hints at the need for further research on the way such factors combine in determining farm-household reactions to a changing market and policy context, and support the usefulness of non-parametric statistics tools for such types of analysis.     

Globalization and the connection of remote communities: A review of household effects and their biodiversity implications

The remote regions of the world provide refuge to a disproportionate amount of the Earth's biodiversity. As globalization continues, isolated human communities in these regions are increasingly connected to global market, migration, and technology networks. We review the diffuse literature on the household effects of changing market access, migration, and technology adoption in remote regions and implications for native biodiversity. Market access affects biodiversity in remote communities through changes in household economics and social networks. Migration, either to or from remote settlements, affects biodiversity through changes in population, remittances, human capital, and social networks. Finally, we consider effects due to production, public infrastructure, and information and communication technologies. There is much ambiguity surrounding these causal pathways, and thus we also examine the roles of various ecological, household, community, and institutional mediating factors in determining the impacts of global connection. Finally, we explore the limitations of our current knowledge and research practices and propose directions for future work to address key uncertainties in theory and evidence as well as weaknesses in methodological approaches. We recommend a broad and interdisciplinary mode of inquiry as the best means toward clarifying globalization's impacts on human settlements and the biodiversity harbored in the Earth's remaining remote regions.     

经济结构调整过程中农村土地制度的创新

二元经济结构的改善需要农地制度的创新.农地制度改革目标模式的设计必须兼顾社会保障与效率两重功能,国有制、个人所有制、土地股份制都不符合这一原则.作者的产权分析框架认为,产权效率取决于权利的界定及实施.中国农地制度改革的方向,是坚持集体所有制的前提,通过农地权利的界定、农村集体经济组织决策制度的创新,进一步理顺乡镇政府、村集体组织与农民的关系.     

Human capital, market imperfections, and labor reallocation in transition

In this paper, we investigate the effects of human capital and factor market imperfections on household decisions regarding labor use and reallocation in transition countries. We develop a model that accounts explicitly for heterogeneity in the supply of labor and analyze its impact on the allocation of labor. Furthermore, the effects of imperfections in the capital and labor markets on the reallocation process are modeled. Using a dataset based on a countrywide representative survey of Hungarian rural households, we estimate the effects empirically and find them to be important. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 745–774.     

Ownership of individual retirement accounts – an empirical analysis based on SHARE

This paper examines the household retirement saving decisions in what concerns to the ownership of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in eight European Union (EU) countries. IRAs are more and more seen as an alternative to public pension benefits, which are decreasing. Therefore, understanding the enrolment in IRAs, both the socio-economic factors and over time, is most important. Detailed empirical analysis of the factors that might influence the ownership of IRAs is presented based on Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), using data from Wave 2 (2006–2007) and Wave 4 (2010–2011). Further, to analyse the impact of legal retirement age in the ownership of IRAs, two subsamples are considered: people aged between 50 and 64 years old (50–64 years) and people aged 65 or over (≥ 65 years). The results suggest that age, years of education, income and ownership of dwelling influence positively and significantly household saving, while number of children, marital status and risk aversion have a negative effect. Marital status and income are not statistically significant for retired people. Policy implications are derived.