INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

中国外汇储备快速增长的原因探析——基于人口结构的视角

近年来,中国外汇储备快速增长成为我国理论界和实务界关注的热点问题.通过理论推演和实证分析得出结论:中国外汇储备快速增长与独特人口年龄结构密切相关.当前,中国不能陶醉在外汇储备世界第一的光环中,要清醒地看到其中的隐忧,采取诸如转变经济增长方式、增加人力资本投入、强化外汇储备管理等措施来加以应对.     

A note on the ecological-economic modelling of marine reserves in fisheries

This paper gives an overview of the bioeconomic modelling of marine reserves, and illustrates how economists have responded to the modelling results found in the ecological literature. The economic analysis is shown to be far more pessimistic with regards to the potential of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool, than what one finds in the purely ecological analysis, the reason being the latter's neglect of issues such as discounting and economic incentive behaviour. However, economic analysis, despite some of it being relatively advanced with regards to spatiality, is still simplistic with regards to for instance ecosystem and habitat content. A simple expansion of the existing bioeconomic models with regards to positive habitat effects of area closures is presented and analysed, showing room for improved results from marine reserve implementation as compared to the existing analysis.     

商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识

最近,学术界对商业银行流动性问题议论颇多,议论的焦点是银行的流动性过剩及由此引发的种种后果.本文基于既往研究中值得深思的四个问题,从商业银行超额储备构成出发对流动性过剩的内涵、判断标准及影响因素进行界定,以商业银行保持流动性成因的微观视角管窥我国商业银行流动性过剩问题.在此基础上,本文认为商业银行流动性过剩问题的解决与资本市场的发展并无必然的直接联系,并针对流动性过剩问题的不同形成原因提出了相应的几点看法.     

自然保护地自然资源资产产权制度现状辨析

“建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系”是党的十九大所提出的国家公园体制建设的新方向。实现自然保护地的有效保护管理是其重要内容，关键在于通过改革形成科学、合理的自然资源资产产权制度，而厘清自然资源资产产权制度的现状则是进行改革的前提。首先，对现行法律进行系统梳理，明确法律所认定的自然保护地中的自然资源类型。其次，从自然资源的产权种类及所有权改变、用益物权流转三方面总结了自然保护地自然资源资产的产权制度现状。再者，从各类自然保护地申报设立的条件和环保督查中反映出来的问题两方面入手分析了自然保护地的自然资源保护管理现状，从国家公园体制试点采取的措施出发分析了目前的改革探索，并提炼出自然保护地自然资源资产产权制度存在的四大问题，即自然资源资产产权的界定和要求较局限、自然资源所有权行使人虚位、公权与私权的利益协调机制不健全、改革探索中物权途径面临制度障碍。最后，从自然资源资产产权制度设计的角度提出了改革的4个方向。     

关于商业银行贷款呆账准备金制度的分析

对贷款的会计处理和计提呆账准备金的实践是银行业管理和控制风险的基本要素,财政部已多次颁布了有关的管理办法。这些办法的出台对于商业银行防范和化解金融风险有着积极的意义,但也存在一些问题与不足。本文针对这些问题,结合国际惯例和我国实际情况,提出了改革和完善我国商业银行贷款呆账准备金制度的对策和建议。     

人民币升值预期下的我国外汇储备增长实证分析

最近几年来我国外汇储备超常增长,人民币升值预期将在其中起重要作用的观点虽然被广泛认同,但对此的定量研究还非常欠缺。本文以境外人民币NDF汇率作为汇率预期指标,运用计量经济学方法对2000年至2005年月度外汇储备时间序列数据进行定量分析,结果表明人民币汇率预期对外汇储备快速积累起着极为重要的作用,同时外汇储备积累也是外向型经济发展的反映。     

上市公司利用减值准备进行盈余管理的实证研究--以吉林省上市公司为例

上市公司于2001年1月1日起开始执行新的企业会计制度,新的会计制度与原会计制度相比最显著的变化就是在原来四项资产减值准备计提的基础上又增加四项减值准备。这八项减值准备的计提,充分体现了谨慎性原则对历史成本原则的修正,目的是为了挤出上市公司资产中的水分,保护所有者和债权人的利益,从而化解其投资风险。通过对吉林省上市公司八项资产减值准备计提情况的分析,可以反映出吉林省上市公司利用减值准备进行盈余管理的实际情况。     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

石油储量价值评价中外部成本级差模型的设计与检验

石油资源的价值评价中,被重点讨论的成本级差因素由4个因素组成,其中有一类相对于油藏本身而言是外部性的因素,称为外部成本级差因素.在分析外部成本级差因素的组成因子之后,建立能够对之进行测算的数学模型,并就两个油田的实测数据给出计算结果.