| 中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态及协同性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李天德,陈小凡.中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态及协同性分析[J].经济经纬,2007(3):55-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李天德 陈小凡 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学,经济学院,四川,成都,610064 |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态以及两地经济周期的协同性进行了检验.结果显示:一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期均存在显著的三区制性质,即经济周期可划分为"低速"、"适速"和"高速"增长区制;另一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期的协同性水平偏低,并且存在依赖于区制状态的"门限性质",即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平.
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| 关 键 词： | 经济周期 协同性 区制转移模型 门限性质 中国 内地与香港 经济周期 状态 协同性 分析 Hong Kong Mainland China Synchronization Cycle Business 门限 偏低 水平 增长 划分 性质 三区 存在 显示 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-1096（2007）03-0055-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-03-16 |
A Study on the Business Cycle Regimes and Synchronization of Mainland China and Hong Kong |
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| LI Tian-de,CHEN Xiao-fan.A Study on the Business Cycle Regimes and Synchronization of Mainland China and Hong Kong[J].Economic Survey,2007(3):55-58. |
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| Authors: | LI Tian-de CHEN Xiao-fan |
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| Institution: | School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the Markov regime switching model to test the business cycle regimes and synchronization of Mainland China and Hong Kong.The result indicates that on one hand the growth process can be divided into three regimes: "high growth regime","suitable growth regime" and "low growth regime",and on the other hand f the synchronization level between the two economies is low and the threshold effect which depends on regimes exists.That is,in different business cycle regimes the synchronization levels are different. |
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| Keywords: | business cycle synchronization regime switching model threshold effect |
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