我国商业银行金融创新的影响因素述评

金融创新是金融行业持久发展和取得竞争优势的源泉,为了更好地指导我国商业银行金融创新行为,文章对金融创新的基本理论与发展过程做了较为详实和系统的综述,并对影响商业银行的创新因素进行了梳理,文章还深刻揭示了商业银行金融创新的内部动力机制。研究对商业银行的金融创新行为具有重要的指导意义。     

国内外金融危机预警模型述评

随着全球化进程的加快,金融市场逐渐成为各国经济运行的核心。金融体系本身的特殊性,其既给各国经济发展带来了机遇的同时也伴随了大量的风险。世界范围内接连不断的金融危机暴露出金融风险的严重紧迫性和金融危机的破坏性,尤其在发展中国家和新兴市场国家这一问题更加突出。因此,构建有效的金融危机预警体系,筛选恰当的预警指标,能够相对准确的预报警情,确定危机来源,判断危机大小就显得迫切重要。在此对国内外流行的金融危机预警方法的基本原理、模型的发展和缺陷进行梳理和对比分析,为我国金融危机预警研究工作提供参考。     

金融危机对我国外贸的影响与对策

在全球性金融危机的影响下,我国的对外贸易形势严峻。如何优化出口产品结构、防范汇率波动风险、推进出口市场多元化、加大国家对出口的政策扶持力度等已成为当务之急,需采取一系列相应对策。     

Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach

This paper investigates whether, during the Asian crisis, contagion occurred from Thailand to the other crisis countries through the foreign exchange market, and, if so, determines the contribution of this contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the crisis, on the EMP of four Asian crisis countries increased during the crisis. Instead of measuring contagion by the commonly used correlation coefficients, we apply regression analysis. To control for the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, we construct a time-varying indicator measuring the fragility of each economy. Additionally, we control for spillovers and common external shocks. We find evidence of contagion from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia, with 13 and 21 percent of the pressure on the respective currencies attributable to that contagion. For Korea and the Philippines there is no evidence of contagion from Thailand. JEL no. F30, F31, G15     

金融危机影响下亚洲发展中国家经济面临的挑战及对策分析

2007年爆发的金融危机对全球经济造成了广泛而深入的影响,对于被认为增长最快的亚洲发展中国家来说,危机带来的挑战主要体现在三个方面：金融体系方面、贸易方面和外部资金融通方面。文章认为,面对不同层面不同程度的经济影响,亚洲发展中国家应加强内部监管、积极推进区域合作,共同应对挑战,以继续保持较高的经济增长。     

Asian Financial Crisis and the Evolution of Korean Banks Efficiency: A DEA Approach

Abstract

In the mid-1990s, the East Asian countries experienced severe financial crisis that were followed by deep economic downturns. A variety of methodologies have been used to understand the nature of the Asian financial crisis. However, the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the financial industry has yet to be critically examined. By employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach the present study attempts to examine for the first time the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the Korean banking sector. The study focuses on three major approaches, namely, intermediation, value added, and operating approaches. The results clearly bring forth the high degree of inefficiency in the Korean banking sector, particularly a year after the Asian financial crisis. We find that the Korean banking sector has consistently exhibit higher technical efficiency levels under value added approach, while technical efficiency seems to be lowest under intermediation approach.     

日本银行的信贷扩张及其危机效应

通常人们将日本银行的坏账和不良资产问题归咎于日本的泡沫经济以及东南亚的经济危机．而在具体、现实的解释上，日本银行自身经营的失败和机制的缺陷才是最重要、最直接的危机成因，对日本银行信贷扩张历程的分析展现了日本银行不良资产困境及其危机效应的形成过程。     

Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.     

Some Methodological Issues on Estimating Foreign Exchange Exposure of US Multinational Firms: Evidence from the Asian Crisis

Abstract

This article asks whether sample specification of firm, period, and exchange rate matters in estimating foreign exchange exposure of US multinational firms. By sampling US firms that had Asian sales and assets from 1996 to 1998, we find that the firms’ returns are more likely to be significantly exposed to the Asian-oriented exchange rate changes for the Asian crisis, when the exchange rate changes were unexpectedly sizable. Also, by examining firms’ exposure in the share of Asian sales and assets, we find that the firms are more exposed as their operations are more involved in the Asian region.     

亚洲金融危机前中国资本外逃的影响因素——一个回顾性分析

文章利用计量经济模型,对亚洲金融危机前(1987—1997)我国资本外逃的影响因素进行研究,并对通过协整检验的模型拟合误差修正模型,以反映短期动态变化。研究结果表明,亚洲金融危机前,财政赤字、外汇储备状况和本币高估是驱动资本外逃的主要因素,我国资本外逃具备非经济衰退驱动特点。     

ESG表现对商业银行竞争力的影响——兼论金融创新的调节效应

近年来,国家提出“双碳”目标,“十四五”规划要求全社会统筹经济、社会、环境效益,企业践行ESG理念变得至关重要。而商业银行作为金融业中最重要的机构之一,相关部门对其践行ESG理念提出了更高的要求。以2009年第一季度到2023年第一季度38家上市商业银行为样本,实证检验ESG表现对商业银行竞争力的影响,同时进一步研究金融创新的调节效应。结果显示：ESG表现对商业银行竞争力有显著正向影响,且存在一定的滞后效应;金融创新能够正向调节ESG对商业银行竞争力的影响;异质性分析表明,ESG表现对国有大型商业银行以及农村商业银行无显著影响,但对股份制商业银行和城市商业银行有显著正向影响。     

An Examination of Component Returns and Volatility for Country-Specific Equity Funds in Emerging Markets＇ Evidence From Asian Financial Crisis

This research aims to examine the daily return generating processes for country-specific funds in five east-Asian countries for the period 1995-2000. The effects of component returns and their volatility on the dollar denominated returns and volatility of U.S., international investors and the effects of exchange rate regimes on risk and return are also evaluated. The GARCH-M model is adopted, without the restrictive assumptions of linearity, independence, and constant conditional variance. The time frame, 1995-2000 captures a 30 months period prior to these East Asian countries aborting exchange rate stabilization/intermediate exchange rate regimes in response to the currency crisis. The decomposition of returns to holders of country-specific equity funds into the component returns due to changes in the exchange rate and the returns valued in the fund＇s foreign currency during a period of crisis provides additional information. This research provides evidence of the importance of examining component returns. With regards to the effects on volatility, both the conditional variances associated with the exchange rate returns and the returns denominated in the foreign currencies show some importance, especially the conditional variances associated with the returns denominated in the foreign currencies. With regards to the effects of return component, the exchange rate returns have a greater effect on the fund returns than foreign currency dominated returns.     

2008全球金融危机及其启示

2008年的金融危机对全球的金融市场乃至实体经济的影响越来越大,文章从形成金融危机的金融衍生产品、相关机构的作用、政府的救助措施等方面分析金融危机的原因及影响,并探讨了这次危机的教训和启示。文章认为要防范金融风险必须从提高透明度出发加强监管,金融创新应该切合实体经济的需求,同时要强化个人的责任追究机制。     

金融危机下企业的财务管理对策

加强财务管理是实现企业发展战略的重要手段。当前金融危机波及实体经济,加强财务管理更为重要。应对金融危机企业要重视资金管理;切实强化应收账款回收;加强企业成本控制;节约费用支出;实行全面预算管理;加强财务风险分析,合理进行投资、筹资活动;提高财务人员素质。     

中外银行中间业务发展的比较研究

中间业务是现代商业银行发展最快、种类最多、潜力最大的业务领域。文章全面分析了中外银行中间业务各自发展的竞争优势与劣势,提出了我国商业银行中间业务发展的对策与建议。     

金融危机下广西对外贸易与产业结构关系的实证研究

文章认为,广西对外贸易结构与产业结构之间具有很强的相关关系。广西的产业结构不合理,进而影响对外贸易结构的优化,高新技术产业发展对广西产业结构的升级具有重要影响。文章提出了加快三次产业结构调整、承接广东产业转移、大力发展高新技术产品贸易、加强广西对外贸易人才队伍建设等在金融危机下促进广西对外贸易又好又快发展的对策建议。     

The Global Financial Crisis Revisited: Competition and Regulation

Abstract

Using data of the systematic banking crises from 1981 to 2008, we examine how competition and regulation are related to the crises. We find that countries with higher concentration and/or higher market power of the banking industry are less prone to crises. Further, they are more likely to have weathered the 2008 global financial crisis. However, regulatory and institutional factors play little role and the estimation results are shown to be sensitive to measures of the degree of competition or severity of the crisis, as well as the coverage of the crises.     

资产证券化与商业银行在金融体系中相对地位的变化

文章从资产证券化的效率角度论述了资产证券化趋势与商业银行相对地位下降间的关系。资产证券化下资金融通方式的变革、风险管理方式的转变和专业化分工的发展带来直接融资地位的上升与金融体系效率的提高,从而导致金融市场的重要性日渐上升和商业银行相对地位的下降。     

金融危机后新贸易保护主义对我国外贸的影响及其应对

国际金融危机后,全球范围内新贸易保护主义抬头且呈现加速发展的趋势。我国在这场新贸易保护主义中受害最深,其对我国外贸的影响主要表现在造成我国出口市场萎缩和对外贸易摩擦频繁爆发、恶化我国的外贸环境、冲击我国的加工贸易以及阻碍我国经济健康协调发展等方面。因此,必须加强政府的宏观调控职能、发挥行业协会的协调监督职能、强化出口企业的市场主体功能以应对新贸易保护主义。