The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

Asian Financial Crisis and the Evolution of Korean Banks Efficiency: A DEA Approach

Abstract

In the mid-1990s, the East Asian countries experienced severe financial crisis that were followed by deep economic downturns. A variety of methodologies have been used to understand the nature of the Asian financial crisis. However, the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the financial industry has yet to be critically examined. By employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach the present study attempts to examine for the first time the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the Korean banking sector. The study focuses on three major approaches, namely, intermediation, value added, and operating approaches. The results clearly bring forth the high degree of inefficiency in the Korean banking sector, particularly a year after the Asian financial crisis. We find that the Korean banking sector has consistently exhibit higher technical efficiency levels under value added approach, while technical efficiency seems to be lowest under intermediation approach.     

On the performance of the foreign subsidiaries of Korean banks: are securities investments really profitable?

This study, by focusing on the securities investments of Korean banks’ foreign subsidiaries, analyzes the background of the increase in those securities investments, the present situation, and the influence of securities investments on performance. The major sources of income for Korean banks’ foreign subsidiaries are composed of loans, foreign exchange activities, and securities investments. However, as loans and foreign exchange activities are not profitable because of high funding costs, tighter supervision in host countries, competition among the Korean banks, and the concentration of exports and imports on specific countries, the foreign subsidiaries of Korean banks have increased the weight of their securities investments. The results of this analysis reveal that securities investments affect negatively on the performance of Korean banks’ foreign subsidiaries, and it strongly suggests that the foreign subsidiaries of Korean banks—short on credit, size, technology, experience, and networking—need more preparation for financial globalization.     

Interaction between Foreign and Domestic Investors in the Korean Stock and Futures Markets*

The present paper analyzes the behavioral relations of major investor groups in the stabilized Korean stock and futures markets after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Investor groups cannot be classified as positive or negative feedback traders on market returns when both stock and futures markets are considered, which is inconsistent with the results in Ghysels and Seon (2005). Foreign investors and domestic institutions tend to take opposite positions in both markets. The impact of foreign investors on the basis change is significantly negative in the futures market, whereas domestic institutions have a negative relation in the stock market. This supports the view that selling activity of foreign investors in the futures market pulls the futures price down compared with the index value and, consequently, induces the reverse cash‐and‐carry trade of domestic institutions. This relationship, which negatively influenced the Korean economy during the crisis, as shown in Ghysels and Seon (2005), still exists in the Korean financial markets.     

An introduction to problems of economic development in the CMEA countries

Through the Asian financial crisis, many key international economic issues have come to the forefront the stability of the international financial system under the IMF, “Asian values”, the universal validity of the Asian Economic Development Model, China's leadership in the regional world economy, Japan's role in the region, and the immunity of Greater China from the current financial crisis. Currently, most Asian countries seem eager to redress structural problems involving the government sector, banking, and corporate governance. In the process of this full scale restructuring, Korea must reevaluate its economic relationship with Central Asia. This paper argues that Korean financial crisis stems basically from the system failure. Furthermore, since a small open economy carries with it intrinsic vulnerabilities, the government should be more careful in securing optimal foreign exchange, opening capital markets based on the economy's absorption capacity. In this respect, the banking industry should be run based on the profitability of capital. Once banking industries are distorted by the practice of government‐led policy loans, it is more difficult to correct those customized distortions. The banking industry should play a larger role as the “brain of the economy”, sensing abnormalities of the economy. Moreover, in today's increasingly interdependent global economic system, no single country can solve its problems without close coordination of its policy with the outside world. An early warning system to signal financial instability would help developing economies in modernizing and strengthening their domestic financial institutions and would also work as a supplement to the IMF standby fund. Also, human resource management has proven too important to be neglected. Central Asia could derive lessons from the above Asian “failure”, not the Asian “miracle”, to avoid inappropriate policies and to deepen its economic development.     

Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Transmission of Financial Crises

Central banks usually “park” their foreign exchange reserves in safe or highly liquid foreign assets. The paper illustrates that when central banks invest instead in risky foreign assets, then domestic banking crises can cause a crisis in the market for the foreign asset and vice versa. The paper takes its motivation from Asian central banks’ recent appetite for US government agency-debt securities such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

Identification of Systemically Important Financial Institutions and Implications for Financial Architecture in Korea

Abstract

The global financial crisis has put a spotlight on concerns about financial system stability. Currently, there are discussions about how to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and how to strengthen regulatory measures for these SIFIs. Against the backdrop, this study aims to identify SIFIs by measuring inter-sectoral financial transactions with the flow of funds (FOF) account as a measure of interconnectedness. The empirical results show that banks or insurance companies can be SIFIs only in terms of size. However, foreign banks' branches (FBB) and credit-specialized institutions can also be SIFIs in terms of interconnectedness. Especially the systemic importance of FBB in Korea has increased considering the fact that financial crisis in Korea resulted mainly from foreign exchange market. Therefore, more specific discussions and regulatory measures for SIFIs will be required from the perspective of capital market development and Korea's situation.     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

Capital requirement and financial crisis: The case of Japan and the 1997 Asian crisis

This study investigates the direct link between the implementation of the 1988 Basel capital requirement in Japan and the shrinkage of banks’ foreign assets, particularly in Thailand in the 1990s. The empirical analysis proceeds in two stages. The first stage investigates the hypothesis that the capital crunch in Japan induced Japanese banks to alter their portfolios and reduce their foreign assets. The second step tests the hypothesis that the change in behaviour of the Japanese banks induced the increase of the probability of financial crisis in Asia. Our results support the responsibility of the Japanese capital requirement, among other factors, in triggering the 1997 Asian financial crisis as an external common shock and give a new angle on the financial crisis literature.     

Causes of the financial crisis and the need of monetary cooperation in East Asia

The Main causes of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997–98 can be divided into domestic and foreign ones. The domestic cause stems from structural and liquidity problems, with growing share of non‐performing loans in the financial sector, posing as the most visible manifestation of such problems. On the other side, there is the foreign cause, the sudden fall of the yen against the dollar under the region's unstable foreign exchange system and also its over‐dependency on the dollar. Unfortunately, these causes have not yet disappeared. In order to prevent another financial economic crisis from recurring and to secure the regional currency stability in the long run, an external safety device is indispensable. The purpose of the East Asian monetary cooperation device is not only to absorb the external shocks caused by abrupt changes in the dollar/yen rate and sudden flow of capital, but also to settle international liquidity problems among the regional countries. If a device for the East Asian monetary cooperation is established, transparency in both financial and physical markets will be augmented and in the process, so will be the stability of financial and physical transactions.     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

Financial Restructuring and Economic Growth in Thailand

Abstract

After a sharp downturn in 1998, the Thai economy has up until 2003 registered a strong growth. There has also been a significant increase in exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP). While examining the performance of the Thai economy, this paper pays special attention to the factors that contributed to the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998. Owing to increased financial rather than trade liberalization facilitated by improvements in communications technology, it is virtually impossible to eliminate the possibility of crises in the future. Through sound macro-economic management polices it is however possible to reduce the frequency of crises and their subsequent impact on the real economy. This paper suggests policies that may help to reduce the risk of similar crises in the future.     

Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis

The present study examines the sensitivity of commercial banks' stock excess returns to their volatility and financial risk factors, measured by interest rates and exchange rates, across the recent Asian financial crisis. In general, we found that there were no significant differences among Malaysian commercial banks in their risk exposure prior to and during the Asian financial crisis. The introduction of selective capital controls, a fixed exchange rate regime and a forced banking consolidation program, however, had increased the risk exposure of both large and small domestic banks. The effects of these risk factors were significantly detected in both large and small banks.     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

Localization of foreign multinational companies in Korea

In response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis that devastated the Korean economy, the government performed promotional efforts, comprehensive structural reform, and implemented policies to create a favorable environment for foreign direct investment (FDI). While the Korean government announced deregulation plans to support foreign companies, the public also became more aware of the need for foreign capital to overcome the crisis and revive the economy. The change of atmosphere and the perception on the need to induce the inflow of foreign capital provided the basis for this study. In addition, the crucial role of foreign multinational companies and their efforts to achieve market recognition in a more comprehensive way have provoked this study on the localization of foreign multinational companies in Korea. Investment purposes, entry methods, and the degree of competition by multinational companies in Korea were the variables that lead these companies to respond to localization.     

What sort of financial sector should Indonesia have?

At the time of the 1997 Asian crisis, Indonesia's financial sector had serious weaknesses. This made it vulnerable to the key element of the crisis: massive reversal of foreign capital flows. Despite huge expenditures on restructuring, many of these weaknesses remain and the current strategy does not seem likely to overcome them. The alternative strategy explored here advocates the creation of ‘savings banks’, holding government bonds as their principal asset. With these safe assets, deposits in such institutions would be secure, even in the event of a major economic crisis. With this safe ‘core’, the rest of the financial system could develop on conventional lines (allowing removal of the current blanket guarantee, and making it more feasible to close banks without this causing a run on the system as a whole). The inherent risk to the taxpayer of another expensive bail-out would be greatly diminished.     

Toward regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia1

The financial and economic crisis in 1997–98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra‐regional and extra‐regional exchange rate stability.     

Bankers on the Board,Market Competition,and Conflicts of Interest

Abstract

Bankers on the board are expected to act as a fund-raiser and to help lowering financial costs, but they can impose conflicts of interest between shareholders and creditors. We empirically analyse the impact of banker-directors on corporate leverage and investment, using Korean firm data during the period from 2000 to 2012. Bankers on the board turn out to play different roles depending on market competition and macroeconomic circumstance. In less competitive industries where banks are less concerned about financial distress as a creditor, the presence of bankers on the board has higher leverage and more active investment, which can align with the interest of shareholders. However, in more competitive environment where firms are more concerned about financial distress and external financing, bankers on the board do not always increase leverage and investment, which can be divergent from the interest of shareholders.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of China's financial reform—The efficiency of China's domestic banks

This paper estimates the cost and profit efficiency of the Chinese domestic banking sector to evaluate the effectiveness of China's financial reforms since 1978. We use the performance of foreign banks as the benchmark because foreign banks, subject to intensive worldwide competition, are perceived as possessing superior governing structure and organization, more advanced technologies and better trained labor force. On the other hand, competition in China's banking sector is mainly in the form of nonprice measures, thus putting foreign banks at a disadvantage. We find domestic banks have gradually caught up the cost advantage of foreign banks in a manner consistent with the increased competitive pressure. On the other hand, the profit advantage of domestic banks over foreign banks is widening because of institutional arrangements, cultural and social networks as well as the profit scope and revenue scale economy.