从"转变经济增长方式"到"转变经济发展方式"的理论思考

把对经济工作考察的视野从经济增长扩大到经济发展,这符合世界经济发展的一般规律.从"转变经济增长方式"到"转变经济发展方式"的提法创新,是党和国家对我国经济发展规律认识进一步深化的一个重要标志,体现了落实科学发展观、实现经济又好又快发展的内在要求."转变经济发展方式"比"转变经济增长方式"内涵更丰富,在思路上应以节能减排为抓手,以结构调整与优化升级为载体,以体制改革与创新为保障,确保转变经济发展方式的各项工作取得新突破、新进展.     

论推进经济增长方式的根本性转变

了解经济增长方式演变的基本规律,可以对我国增长方式的转变起到重要的借鉴和推动作用。现阶段我国建立在粗放型增长方式基础之上的经济发展,在资源、环境、经济结构和国际关系等方面给我国的社会经济生活带来了许多严重的问题和困难。切实转变经济增长方式,要从各个方面、各个环节进行不懈的艰苦努力。     

市场机制建设与经济增长方式的转变——理论与实证分析

虽然转变经济增长方式问题的提出由来已久,但是我国经济增长主要依靠增加投入的状况却并没有明显改变。已有研究主要以理论分析为主,缺乏实证检验。笔者通过建立多元回归模型,用研发投入强度、市场化指数、人均发电量和霍夫曼系数,对各省(区、市)的单位工业增加值能耗进行分析,证明了市场化指数是决定单位工业增加值能耗的主要因素。这意味着只要减少政府干预、提高市场化程度、建立起完善的市场机制,就能实现中国经济增长方式的转变。     

转变经济增长方式的路径选择:-个投资的视角

投资是拉动经济增长的重要路径,而当前中国在投资结构和投资形式诸方面均存在着不少问题,制约了经济增长方式的转变。经济增长方式转变的一个重要内容就是投资方式的改善。以中国要素禀赋结构为基础,充分发挥比较优势,构建产业的自生能力是完善投资方式的应有之义。     

改革开放前后中国经济发展方式的转变和优化趋势

改革开放以前,中国采取的是粗放型、内向型的经济发展方式,以数量规模扩张、外延扩大、高投入、高消耗、高积累、低消费、内需推动、重工业优先、重速度、轻效益为其基本特征;改革开放以来,中国形成趋向集约型为主、外向型的经济发展方式,仍然以数量规模扩张、外延扩大、追求速度、高投入、高消耗、高积累、低消费为重要特征,并且具有产业结构不断调整、外需拉动作用显著、效率有所提高的新特征;经济发展方式根本转变和优化的趋势,是要形成科学发展方式。     

New general theory of economic development: Innovative growth and distribution

Economic development, which refers to the process of progressive transformation of an economy, is a multifaceted term without a universal definition. This article presents the constitutive elements of economic development: growth, distribution, and innovation. Economic development has been ubiquitous with the economic progress of “developing” countries, but the changing economic circumstances of “developed” countries, such as stagnant growth, regional economic disparity within developed countries, and deepening income gaps among citizens of developed countries, have made this term also relevant to address the economic problems of developed countries. The mechanisms of economic development, with respect to both developed and developing countries, are elusive, and the existing theories have not been able to explain these mechanisms of economic development adequately. This article reviews the existing theories and presents a new theoretical framework to explain the process of economic development.     

经济发展、模型再造与中国经济发展方式的转变

经济发展理论是社会经济发展的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学派,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论,其大体经历了三个发展阶段。现代经济发展理论及模型的建立强调科学技术进步、人力资本积累对经济发展的促进作用。但是,发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整地建立经济发展理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国社会经济建设实践。特别是经济发展方式的转变实践。     

关于公共支出与经济增长的国内外研究综述

公共支出与经济增长的关系一直以来为经济学家们所争论。持公共支出促进经济增长观点认为,政府公共支出在经济增长中发挥着重要作用,因为它为经济发展提供了大量的公共品和其他具有外部效应的公共福利或服务,从而鼓励和便利了私人投资,形成了一个较好的投资环境,促进了经济增长。而持反对意见的认为,公共支出往往是生产率较低的,为融通政府支出而形成的高税收又会对私人部门的消费和投资造成很大的负面影响,因此,必须缩减政府支出,才能保证经济增长。当然也有人持两者根本就没有关系的观点。     

总需求结构调整与经济发展方式转变

本文从结构主义视角,参照1970-2008年国际需求结构演变的一般形式,剖析了中国转型发展中的总需求结构特征,分析了总需求结构失衡且调整缓慢的内在机理。研究结论表明,总需求结构调整必须跳出需求结构本身,从经济发展战略和收入分配制度两个方面着手,确立以扩大内需为支撑的内生发展战略和构建"劳动偏向型"的收入分配制度。     

山东省能源消耗结构与经济增长的动态分析

能源是经济增长的动力源泉,是经济社会运行的根本保障。建立在能源基础上的现代社会,能源消耗结构是否合理决定了其经济发展能否可持续。研究山东省能源消耗结构的变动状况,以及能源消费与经济增长的关系,可以促进山东省经济的持续增长。     

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

循环经济模式下传统产业发展新思考——养禽产业环境成本分析

循环经济是一种以资源的高效利用和循环利用为核心,以"减量化、再利用、资源化"为原则,以低消耗、低排放、高效率为基本特征,符合可持续发展理念的经济增长模式,是对"大量生产、大量消费,大量废弃"的传统增长模式的根本变革。论文通过对养禽产业环境成本的形成分析,提出了环境成本控制的理想模型,对养禽产业可持续发展提供理论指导和实践操作的方法与技巧。     

对我国经济增长方式转变的新思考

我国经济增长方式长期存在着由粗放型向集约型转变的困扰,表现为经济增长过度依赖于投入的增加,生产技术水平偏低,劳动者素质结构改善缓慢,经济比例关系没有理顺,产业结构不合理现象突出等。转变增长方式的关键在于增强国内自主创新能力,调整和优化产业结构,以科技进步推动经济增长由低质低效向高质高效的转化,以产业结构的调整和优化保障增长目标的实现。     

论经济增长与社会发展的失衡

本文研究了快速增长的中国经济中经济增长与社会发展的失衡问题,认为失衡会严重影响中国经济社会的健康发展。失衡的表现是多方面的,失衡的原因在于单纯的经济增长主义、经济政策与社会政策的混淆和政府与市场功能的错位。本文的结论是应按照转变经济发展方式的要求校正失衡。     

Frontiers and sustainable economic development

Exploiting new resource “frontiers,” such as agricultural land and mineral reserves, is a fundamental feature of economic development in poor economies. Yet frontier-based development is symptomatic of a pattern of economy-wide resource exploitation in developing economies that: (a) generates little additional economic rents, and (b) what rents are generated are not being reinvested in other sectors. Such development is inherently unsustainable. The following paper explains this phenomenon, and provides evidence that long-run expansion of agricultural land and oil and natural gas proved reserves across poor economies is associated with lower levels of real income per capita. The paper proposes a frontier expansion hypothesis to explain why the structural economic dependence of these economies on frontier land expansion and resource exploitation is not conducive to sustained long-run growth. The key to sustainable economic development in poor economies will be improving the economic integration between frontier and other sectors of the economy, targeting policies to improved resource management in frontier areas and overcoming problems of corruption and rent-seeking in resource sectors.      

中国经济规模报酬测算及影响因素分析

中国经济要保持长期持续增长必须要转变经济增长方式。经济增长方式由要素投入增加型转向效率提高型的经济学内涵在于报酬递增机制的形成。从这样一个视角出发,运用了35个工业行业2000-2008年数据对中国经济增长中的规模报酬情况进行了测算,并对中国报酬递增的影响因素进行了分析,发现现阶段分工与技术创新仍是最为核心的要素。中国经济增长方式要转向报酬递增驱动的机制,最为根本的在于分工与技术创新良性互动机制的形成。     

安徽省经济增长驱动因素的实证研究

根据2000—2009年安徽省的经济发展情况,在格兰杰因果关系检验的基础上,进一步运用最小二乘法,对安徽省经济增长的主要驱动因素进行实证分析。研究结果显示:安徽省经济具有明显的内需主导型特征及发展趋势,驱动其经济增长的最主要因素是居民消费和投资,而政府消费和净出口对其经济增长的作用并不显著。最后提出政府应大力增强居民的消费信心、构建完善的投资风险管理体系、合理控制进出口,以确保安徽省经济健康快速发展。     

The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China：from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.     

蓝色经济区碳排放对经济增长的阈值协整效应

构建了碳排放与经济增长及其相关影响因素的阈值协整模型,利用完全修正的最小二乘法对该模型进行估计。得出如下主要结论:碳排放随着经济增长周期的发展表现出非线性变化特征;蓝色经济区的碳排放对经济增长的阈值协整效应发生在人均GDP增长率为9.54%和13.46%之处;从产业结构和能源使用效率对碳排放的阈值效应可看出蓝色经济区正在走产业升级和转型之路,因此需要注重培育高新产业发展环境。     

Information resources and economic productivity

This paper analyzes the role of information resources in the development of the United States economy and especially in the determination of productivity levels. The analysis is based on a formal economic model of the interrelationship between two sectors: an information sector, comprising all labor and capital used to process and handle information, and a production sector, which processes and handles material goods. The purposes of the model are to explain the past growth of the information sector workforce, to identify productivity trends in the sector, and to determine the implications of those trends for future economic performance. The analysis shows that, historically, the rate of efficiency improvement in information handling (essentially white-collar) work has been much slower than in production work. However this pattern is changing rapidly, chiefly as a result of the introduction of new data processing, communication and storage technologies. Our model shows that the expected future level of investment in these information technologies will be sufficient to reverse, by the mid 1980s, the slowdown of economic growth which is currently afflicting industrialized countries.