Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective

The standard neoclassical approach to economic theorising excludes, by definition, economic emergence and the related phenomenon of entrepreneurship. We explore how the most economic of human behaviours, entrepreneurship, came to be largely excluded from mainstream economic theory. In contrast, we report that evolutionary economists have acknowledged the importance of understanding emergence and we explore the advances that have been made in this regard. We go on to argue that evolutionary economics can make further progress by taking a more ‘naturalistic’ approach to economic evolution. This requires that economic analysis be fully embedded in complex economic system theory and that associated understandings as to how humans react to states of uncertainty be explicitly dealt with. We argue that ‘knowledge,’ because of the existence of uncertainty is, to a large degree ‘conjectural’ and, thus, is closely linked to our emotional states. Our economic behaviour is also influenced by the reality that we, and the systems that we create, are dissipative structures. Thus, we introduce the notions of ‘energy gradients’ and ‘knowledge gradients’ as essential concepts in understanding economic emergence and resultant economic growth.     

Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda

In this article, the goal is to offer a new research agenda for evolutionary macroeconomics. The article commences with a broad review of the main ideas in the history of thought concerning the determinants of economic growth and an introduction to the evolutionary perspective. This is followed by a selective review of recent evolutionary approaches to macroeconomics. These approaches are found to be somewhat disconnected. It is argued that the ‘micro-meso-macro’ approach to economic evolution is capable of resolving this problem by offering an analytical framework in which macroeconomics can be built upon ‘meso-foundations’, not micro-foundations, as asserted in the mainstream. It is also stressed that the economic system and its components are complex adaptive systems and that this complexity must not be assumed away through the imposition of simplistic assumptions made for analytical convenience. It is explained that complex economic systems are, at base, energetic in character but differ from biological complex systems in the way that they collect, store and apply knowledge. It is argued that a focus upon stocks and flows of energy and knowledge in complex economic systems can yield an appropriate analytical framework for macroeconomics. It is explained how such a framework can be connected with key insights of both Schumpeter and Keynes that have been eliminated in modern macroeconomics. A macroeconomic framework that cannot be operationalized empirically is of limited usefulness so, in the last part of the article, an appropriate methodology for evolutionary macroeconomics is discussed.     

From simplistic to complex systems in economics

The applicability of complex systems theory in economics isevaluated and compared with standard approaches to economictheorising based upon constrained optimisation. A complex systemis defined in the economic context and differentiated from complexsystems in physio-chemical and biological settings. It is explainedwhy it is necessary to approach economic analysis from a network,rather than a production and utility function perspective, whenwe are dealing with complex systems. It is argued that muchof heterodox thought, particularly in neo-Schumpeterian andneo-Austrian evolutionary economics, can be placed within acomplex systems perspective upon the economy. The challengeis to replace prevailing ‘simplistic’ theories,based in constrained optimisation, with ‘simple’theories, derived from network representations in which valueis created through the establishment of new connections betweenelements.     

Economic fluctuations,volatility changes and the role of government spending in China: A structural analysis

We study the economic fluctuations in China by using a standard neoclassical general equilibrium model to provide a structural analysis. We have carefully constructed measurements for economic variables from Chinese data to be consistent with the literature. We show that the government spending behaviour plays an important role in accounting for the changes in the pattern of both absolute and relative volatilities. Although we find that a general moderation in economic fluctuations after 1978 can be largely explained by the total factor productivity (TFP) process, TFP itself cannot explain the change in the pattern of relative volatilities. We show that policy changes in government spending can account for the relative volatility divergency. Counterfactual experiments are also provided to discover the role of each factor in explaining the economic fluctuations in China.     

Metaphors of Knowledge in Economics

"Knowledge" takes a central place in economics. This paper shows that the metaphor pervasively used in neoclassical economics to understand knowledge is that of "capital". Taking capital as a metaphor of knowledge introduces problems in neoclassical economic theory, as becomes apparent when economics addresses issues of learning and technological development. Instead, it is argued that economists could learn from what philosophers such as Gilbert Ryle and Michael Polanyi have said about how to understand knowledge.     

Interpersonal Interaction and Economic Theory: The Case of Public Goods

Interpersonal interaction in public goods contexts is very different in character to its depiction in economic theory, despite the fact that the standard model is based on a small number of apparently plausible assumptions. Approaches to the problem are reviewed both from within and outside economics. It is argued that quick fixes such as a taste for giving do not provide a way forward. An improved understanding of why people contribute to such goods seems to require a different picture of the relationships between individuals than obtains in standard microeconomic theory, where they are usually depicted as asocial. No single economic model at present is consistent with all the relevant field and laboratory data. It is argued that there are defensible ideas from outside the discipline which ought to be explored, relying on different conceptions of rationality and/or more radically social agents. Three such suggestions are considered, one concerning the expressive/communicative aspect of behaviour, a second the possibility of a part-whole relationship between interacting agents and the third a version of conformism.     

Econometric Specification and Identification of the Behavior of Economic Agents

The present study examines the combination of economic theory, structure of the econometric model, and estimation techniques to extract the maximum possible information about the behavior of economic agents from observed decisions. The analysis is set in the framework of micro economic behavior and industrial organization. The relevant theoretical structures generally assume optimization behavior of economic agents. However, optimization models do not have a unique structure and are generally difficult to identify. Consequently, a variety of second best specification and estimation methods emerged. But they entail loss of information. Hence, greater efforts devoted to the identification of optimization models will enrich our understanding of economic behavior. Progress in this direction will eventually render a vast majority of existing econometric techniques obsolete.

     

Market failure vs. system failure as a rationale for economic policy? A critique from an evolutionary perspective

This paper reconsiders the explanation of economic policy from an evolutionary economics perspective. It contrasts the neoclassical equilibrium notions of market and government failure with the dominant evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian and Austrian-Hayekian perceptions. Based on this comparison, the paper criticizes the fact that neoclassical reasoning still prevails in non-equilibrium evolutionary economics when economic policy issues are examined. This is more than surprising, since proponents of evolutionary economics usually view their approach as incompatible with its neoclassical counterpart. In addition, it is shown that this “fallacy of failure thinking” even finds its continuation in the alternative concept of “system failure” with which some evolutionary economists try to explain and legitimate policy interventions in local, regional or national innovation systems. The paper argues that in order to prevent the otherwise fruitful and more realistic evolutionary approach from undermining its own criticism of neoclassical economics and to create a consistent as well as objective evolutionary policy framework, it is necessary to eliminate the equilibrium spirit. Finally, the paper delivers an alternative evolutionary explanation of economic policy which is able to overcome the theory-immanent contradiction of the hitherto evolutionary view on this subject.     

中国经济增长模型的设定:1952—1998

现代经济增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长吗 ?如果能 ,那么哪类经济增长理论能比较好地刻画我国的经济增长呢 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文从实证和理论两个方面展开讨论。在实证上 ,本文采用Jones( 1 995)实证检验新增长理论的方法 ,针对各类经济增长理论的核心特征 ,实证分析了 1 952— 1 998年间我国经济增长的典型事实 ,结果发现这些典型事实明显地拒绝了新古典增长理论和R&D类型增长理论 ,相对而言 ,比较支持AK类型增长理论。另外 ,我们还发现以综合要素生产率测量的技术进步 ,不是我国1 952—1 998年间经济增长的引擎。在理论上 ,本文从“边干边学”的角度 ,把“探索适合我国国情的经济建设道路”纳入经济增长模型 ,证明了其本身可以作为我国经济增长的引擎 ;同时回答了为什么AK类型增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长。     

Evolvability and progress in evolutionary economics

This paper develops an account of evolutionary progress for use in the field of evolutionary economics. Previous work is surveyed and a new account set out, based on the idea of evolvability as it has been used recently in evolutionary developmental biology. The biological underpinnings of this idea are explained using examples of a series of phenomena that influence the evolvability of biological systems. It is further argued that biological and economic selection pressures and developmental processes are sufficiently similar to make this biological concept useful in economics. The new account is defended against a number of common objections to the notion of progress in evolving systems, including the claim that all stipulated measures of evolutionary progress are essentially arbitrary and the idea that economic evolutionary progress might not accord with the preferences of economic actors. It is argued that progress, understood as an increase in evolvability over time, is both philosophically well-justified and provides useful predictive and explanatory resources to those seeking to understand and manipulate evolving economic systems.     

Resilience in the Dynamics of Economy-Environment Systems

The ecological concept of resilience has begun to inform analysis of change in economy-environment systems. The linkages between resilience and the stability of dynamical systems are discussed, along with its role in understanding of the evolution of such systems. Particular linkages discussed include those between resilience, biodiversity and the sustainability of alternative states. Recent developments in modelling the resilience of joint economy-environment systems suggest the advantages of analysing change in the system as a Markov process, the transition probabilities between states offering a natural measure of the resilience of the system in such states. It is argued that this ‘emergent property’ of the collaboration between ecology and economics has far-reaching implications for the way we think about, model and manage the environmental sustainability of economic development.     

Fuller Employment with Uptrending Prices: The 1968 Economic Report

When used in those spheres of life where attaching a price tag or making an economic calculus is impossible or loses any meaning, markets usually under perform and disappoint. In addition to empirical shortcomings of markets, the unrealistic theoretical assumption and poor predictive and explanatory value of neoclassical equilibrium theory provides fertile ground for critics of the institution of markets. Complexity theory provides a theoretical framework that enables us to analyze the role of markets from a radically different perspective than that offered by neoclassical equilibrium theory and, therefore, to reach very different conclusions about the role of markets in industrialized economies.     

Social Control of Corporate Power: Comment

Economic activity takes place within an institutional framework. The economy, like society, represents a complex of institutions, ranging from the smallest, such as the family, to the largest and most comprehensive, the state (Chavance 2009). Institutional economics offers a broad perspective that brings forward the concept of gender, since gender is a fundamental organizing principle of institutions (Jacobsen 2003). A focus on social provisioning, typical for both feminist as well as institutional economists, leads to a broader understanding of economic activity. This broader approach includes activities like caring and care labor that cannot be entirely understood in terms of individual choices. In this paper, I explore the relationships between care and the economy from the perspective of neoclassical, institutional, and feminist economic theory. Economic theories are a basis for public policies that have a major impact on people’s lives. I argue that changing the dominating economic perspective into feminist-institutional one would improve the situation of care providers, who would, in turn, contribute to the development of society and the economy.     

对外经济开放、区域市场整合与全要素生产率

本文在新增长理论的框架下,构建了一个对外经济开放和区域市场整合内生化全要素生产率的模型。在此基础上,利用中国1985—2008年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)实证检验了对外经济开放和区域市场整合对省际全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明,对外经济开放和区域市场整合对中国省际全要素生产率都产生了显著的正向影响效应,而且二者存在替代关系。进一步的分析指出,在对外经济开放水平较高的沿海地区,区域市场整合对省际全要素生产率的影响效应较低,而在内陆地区则恰好相反。本文为理解中国省际全要素生产率的变化提供了新的视角,对后金融危机时代如何提升地区技术水平、转变经济增长方式也具有一定的启发意义。     

Exploring the Economic Choice to Participate in Sport: Results from the 2002 General Household Survey

This article explores the decision to participate in sports activities in the United Kingdom using a qualitative choice framework. The consistency of the results with neoclassical theories of leisure, and heterodox economic theory, which embraces a psychological view of decision making and structure of demand, is assessed. Finding more support for the latter perspective, the implications of this for sports policy are discussed.     

Towards an improved understanding of farmers' behaviour: The integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework

An effective approach to research on farmers' behaviour is based on: i) an explicit and well-motivated behavioural theory; ii) an integrative approach; and iii) understanding feedback processes and dynamics. While current approaches may effectively tackle some of them, they often fail to combine them together.The paper presents the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework, which aims at filling this gap. It functions in accordance with these three pillars and provides a conceptual structure to understand farmers' behaviour in agricultural systems.The IAC framework is agent-centred and supports the understanding of farmers' behavior consistently with the perspective of agricultural systems as complex social–ecological systems. It combines different behavioural drivers, bridges between micro and macro levels, and depicts a potentially varied model of human agency.The use of the framework in practice is illustrated through two studies on pesticide use among smallholders in Colombia.The examples show how the framework can be implemented to derive policy implications to foster a transition towards more sustainable agricultural practices.The paper finally suggests that the framework can support different research designs for the study of agents' behaviour in agricultural and social–ecological systems.     

Public Investment and Economic Performance in Highly Indebted Poor Countries: An Empirical Assessment

Understanding how public investment affects economic performance in highly indebted low‐income countries is crucial in order to implement effective fiscal policies for adjustment with growth. In this paper we provide an empirical analysis to investigate the relationship between public investment, private investment and output. A dynamic econometric procedure is implemented on a selected group of Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). Our results provide empirical support for the crowding‐in hypothesis and a positive relation between public investment and output.     

Self is Never Neutral: Why Economic Agents Behave Irrationally

Modern economics understands utility from the concept of decision utility inferred from individual choice making. It explains agents' decisions or choices in turn by the paradigm of utility maximizing. From our perspective, however, this is a fatal mistake because economic agents do not always choose what they really want in order to maintain their "self-value." In fact, subjects are never neutral. When agents are not able to obtain something they want, they downplay its desirability in order to get psychological satisfaction. But when they are forced to accept what they do not want, they try to rationalize that they really did want it, again in order to save face. Although such "irrational" behavior may decrease economic utility, it gives agents psychological satisfaction and subjective comfort, thus increasing their immaterial utility. In this sense, agents remain rational when conducting such behaviors, even though they run directly contrary to neoclassical rationality concepts.