Global Defeminization? Industrial Upgrading and Manufacturing Employment in Developing Countries

Globalization has for decades been associated with a rise in the female share of employment or feminization. This study finds that since the mid 1980s, export growth in developing countries is associated with feminization in some countries and a defeminization in others. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Latin America, it uses a fixed-effects econometric model to test whether the technological conditions of production (labor or capital intensity) rather than export growth account for shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing. It finds that the capital intensity of production, evidenced by shifts in labor productivity, is negatively and significantly related to shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing, while exports are statistically insignificant. The study concludes that an anti-female bias exists in labor demand changes that result from output or employment shifts in developing countries when manufacturing becomes more capital intensive, a process likely related to industrial upgrading.     

Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on thesubaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expendituresought to increase because wage incomes typically are associatedwith higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investmentexpenditures ought to be negatively affected because investmentwill positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negativelyaffected because an increase in the wage share corresponds toan increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness.Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-ledor profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The resultswill crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally.The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporatingthese effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro areais presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wagepolicies are discussed.     

Trade and technological explanations for changes in sectoral labour demand in OECD economies

This paper sets out to establish the main determinants of variations in the demand for aggregate labour in manufacturing and service sectors (22) for a cross-section of OECD countries (14). A relatively new panel data set is employed in the analysis, the OECD's International Sectoral Data Base. Preliminary analysis revealed that the ‘within’ sector variation in the wage share dominated overall variation for most countries and time periods. A separate dynamic model was thus generated to explain the ‘within’ sector variation in the wage share. This model contained real wages, output, the capital stock, technological change (total factor productivity) and trade (the imports to value-added ratio) as independent variables. In addition the wage level was also interacted with these explanatory variables on the presumption that skill is positively correlated with the level of wages. Because of the potential for simultaneity bias, estimation was conducted by IV and OLS. The main findings were that the capital stock and technological change were the main determinants of shifts in labour demand. While some countries reported the trade variable as significant its influence was only of slight importance in most cases. The interaction terms proved to be significant in a large number of countries. Some evidence was found that capital and technological were complementary with skill. Overall it was found that broad agreement existed across countries in the factors which influence labour demand despite considerable differences in the cross-country nature of labour market institutions.     

A dynamic econometric model of Thailand manufacturing energy demand

The purpose of this article is to employ the dynamic translog framework to model inter-factor and inter-fuel energy demand for the Thai manufacturing sector. The Denny et al. (1981) and Lynk (1989) framework, which proposes a dynamic adjustment for capital stock is employed to motivate the estimated of factor demand and fuel share equations. Three factors: energy, labour and capital; and five fuel types: fuel oil, diesel oil, liquified petroleum gas (LPG), electricity, and coal and lignite; are examined. Regression diagnostics support the empirical specification. Numerous factor and fuel substitution possibilities are identified, with some policy implications described.     

Research,Innovation And Productivi[Ty: An Econometric Analysis At The Firm Level

This paper studies the links between productivity, innovation and research at the firm level. We introduce three new features: (i) A structural model that explains productivity by innovation output, and innovation output by research investment: (ii) New data on French manufacturing firms, including the number of European patents and the percentage share of innovative sales, as well as firm-level demand pull and technology push indicators; (iii) Econometric methods which correct for selectivity and simultaneity biases and take into account the statistical features of the available data: only a small proportion of firms engage in research activities and/or apply for patents; productivity, innovation and research are endogenously determined; research investment and capital are truncated variables, patents are count data and innovative sales are interval data.

We find that using the more widespread methods, and the more usual data and model specification, may lead to sensibly different estimates. We find in particular that simultaneity tends to interact with selectivity, and that both sources of biases must be taken into account together. However our main results are consistent with many of the stylized facts of the empirical literature. The probability of engaging in research (R&D) for a firm increases with its size (number of employees), its market share and diversification, and with the demand pull and technology push indicators. The research effort (R&D capital intensity) of a firm engaged in research increases with the same variables, except for size (its research capital being strictly proportional to size). The firm innovation output, as measured by patent numbers or innovative sales, rises with its research effort and with the demand pull and technology indicators, either directly or indirectly through their effects on research. Finally, firm productivity correlates positively with a higher innovation output, even when controlling for the skill composition of labor as well as for physical capital intensity.     

Rent extraction by capitalists

Rent extraction by capitalists is present if the capital income share exceeds the capital output elasticity. Based on a sample of 111 countries during the period 1970–2010, panel model estimates show that: (i) the average capital income share significantly exceeds the average capital output elasticity; (ii) the difference between the average capital income share and the average capital output elasticity has increased over time; (iii) in democracies the average capital income share is not significantly different from the average capital output elasticity. The findings suggest that there exists more rent extraction by capitalists in autocracies and anocracies than in democracies.     

Capital account openness and the labour share of income

This paper investigates the relationship between capital accountopenness and the share of labour in national income. Employinga new index of financial openness and a cross-country panelof labour shares available from the United Nations System ofNational Accounts, the author shows a robust negative correlationbetween the degree of openness and the labour share. Althoughthis effect is not present for low income countries, the directnegative relationship holds for all other subsamples and inthe presence of a variety of controls. A plausible explanationis that openness alters the conditions of bargaining betweenlabour and capital. By increasing the bargaining strength ofcapital vis-a-vis labour, increased capital mobility raisesrents accruing to capital. Thus, capital account openness mayreduce labour's share of income in the firm, and thereby, atan economy-wide level, its share of national output.     

美国1970年-2012年劳动收入占比变动的整体性分析

劳动生产率和劳动者工资被看作是导致1970年以后美国劳动收入在增加值中占比下降的主要因素。但现有研究缺乏对此的进一步分析。以马克思对资本积累过程中可变资本在预付总资本中所占比重变化的相关分析为基础的理论拓展,有利于建立起一个统一的分析框架以说明劳动收入占比的变化。本文实证研究的结论基本支持理论分析的逻辑,剩余价值率和资本有机构成是劳动收入占比变化的最主要解释变量。     

技术进步偏向对要素收入份额的影响——基于中国工业行业数据的研究

本文利用CES生产函数考察了技术进步偏向与资本一劳动收入份额比值之间的关系,并利用中国工业1979—2011年的数据进行了实证分析。估计结果表明：中国工业的要素替代弹性大于0小于1;资本增强型技术进步变化率小于劳动增强型技术进步变化率,1987年后工业技术进步为劳动节约型的,资本一劳动收入份额比值提高;资本深化、技术进步偏向、外商直接投资以及国际贸易是我国工业资本收入份额持续上升、劳动收入份额持续下降的主要原因,其中劳动节约型技术进步对要素收入份额失衡的影响最大。工业要素分配份额的演变直接体现了国民收入分配格局的失衡,也间接拉大了我国居民之间的收入差距。     

Long-run convergence in a neo-Kaleckian open-economy model with autonomous export growth

This study combines a neo-Kaleckian growth and distribution model with a sort of Sraffian supermultiplier mechanism in which autonomous demand is driven by foreign exports. Short-, medium- and long-run equilibria are considered. In the long-run case, the expectations of sales growth governing investment change adaptively, and this, combined with the autonomous growth rate of exports, produces convergence of the actual rate of capacity utilization to its normal rate. It is demonstrated that some aspects of the main Kaleckian results can be preserved not only in the short or medium run but also in the long run, in the sense that both (1) a decrease in the propensity to save, and (2) a change in income distribution favoring labor, bring about higher average rates of production growth and capital accumulation. However, the impact of a change in the profit share is shown to be subjected to the condition that the responsiveness of the real exchange rate with respect to the profit share has to be bounded from above, confirming that the scope for wage-led demand or wage-led growth can be limited by open-economy considerations, even within the supermultiplier context.     

智能制造如何影响劳动收入份额——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

本文分析了智能制造发展对劳动收入份额的影响。基于嵌套的CES生产函数来构建含有智能制造和传统生产方式的劳动收入份额理论框架,刻画智能制造对劳动收入份额的影响机制,通过构造智能制造指标体系和“标准化供给面系统”进行实证分析。研究发现：智能制造与传统生产方式之间的替代弹性决定了智能制造－劳动扩展型技术进步对劳动收入份额的作用方向。根据“标准化供给面系统”发现智能制造与传统生产方式之间的替代弹性为互补关系,使得智能制造－劳动扩展型技术最终偏向于智能制造,从而降低了劳动收入份额。此外,智能制造发展提高了平均工资率和劳动生产率,但要素之间的互补关系使得劳动生产率的提高对资本与智能制造产生超额需求,提高了资本和智能制造所得,限制了劳动收入份额上升。因此,应完善收入保障机制,如降低劳动所得税收,通过收入再分配提高劳动者的福利保障,同时也要加强对劳动技能的培训,使得与智能制造发展水平相匹配,进而增加劳动报酬,提高劳动收入份额。     

Industrial restructuring in Russia: early reactions fo firms to the shock of liberalization1

This paper looks at the reaction of Russian firsm to the shock of liberalization. Firms are exposed to two kinds of shocks. A supply affects their profitability. A demand shock reflects the new expression of consumers and the opening of the country to foreign competition. Econometric tests show that firms adapt to these changes. They react by adjusting their output. They are not able to change their production techniques for lack of fresh capital. Employment is more stable that output: it is preserved by the adjustment of real wages. Therefore, firms with a low share of material inputs are relatively better off.     

The immiseration of the landlords: rent in a Kaldorian theory of income distribution

This paper incorporates rent within a Kaldorian model of distributionwhere income shares depend on aggregate investment and the propensitiesto save out of profits, rents and wages. The model is used tointerpret the significance of the secular decline in rents asa share of national income and to specify the circumstancesunder which both the capital/output ratio and the wage shareof national income may rise. The author pursues Keynes's suggestiveremarks about land's liquidity value and shows how an increasein the demand for land, by producers, consumers or wealthholdersreduces the rate of profit and therewith the inducement to invest.     

Impact of split share structure reform on capital structures: empirical evidence from China’s listed companies

An econometric model based on a natural experiment and the difference-in-differences method is introduced to empirically investigate the impact of split share structure reform on capital structures. A total of 1026 listed companies in Chinese A-share during 2001–2011 are used as the sample for the research and interest-bearing debt ratios (BDRs) are taken as a representative indicator for capital structures. The theoretical and empirical analysis indicates that both market expansion effect and corporate governance effect caused by the split share structure reform are associated with an increase in BDR. As far as the timeliness is concerned, the effects of split share structure reform on capital structures will last 3–4 years.     

Capital substitution in an industrial revolution

A unified growth model is presented in which productivity growth is driven by learning‐by‐doing. We show that the growth rate of productivity is an increasing function of the share of capital. It is assumed that the industrial sector has a higher capital share than the agricultural sector and that the ability to substitute one output for the other in the construction of capital goods slowly rises over time. Two distinct regimes of constant growth emerge, connected by a rapid transition in which the growth rate of income increases by an order of magnitude, indicative of an industrial revolution.     

中央企业A股+H股整体上市及其对中国资本市场的影响

在分拆上市和单独境外上市对中国资本市场的不利影响日益凸显的情况下,中央企业A股+H股整体上市是兼顾企业利益和国家利益的现实选择。本文利用实证的研究方法,分析了中央企业先H股后A股、A股+H股同步和先A股后H股三种整体上市路径以及中央企业A股+H股整体上市对中国资本市场的影响,得出的结论是,三种中央企业A股+H股整体上市路径都能对我国资本市场的发展产生或多或少的积极影响;同时,中央企业A股+H股整体上市对包括中国香港在内的中国资本市场将产生多方面的积极影响。     

Technology–Policy Interaction in Frictional Labour-Markets

Does capital-embodied technological change play an important role in shaping labour-market outcomes? To address this question, we develop a model with vintage capital and search-matching frictions where irreversible investment in new vintages of capital creates heterogeneity in productivity among firms, matched as well as vacant. We demonstrate that capital-embodied technological change reduces labour demand and raises equilibrium unemployment and unemployment durations. In addition, the presence of labour-market regulations (unemployment benefits, payroll taxes, and firing costs) exacerbates these effects. Thus, the model is qualitatively consistent with some key features of the European labour-market experience relative to that of the U.S.: it features a sharper rise in unemployment and a sharper fall in the vacancy rate and the labour share. A calibrated version of our model suggests that this technology–policy interaction could explain a sizeable fraction of the observed differences between the U.S. and Europe.     

Relative Demand for Skills in Swedish Manufacturing: Technology or Trade?

The rate of change in the share of skilled labor has increased steadily over the past 35 years in Swedish manufacturing. A closer inspection of the period after 1970 indicates that, while relative supply changes of skilled labor seem to have been the main driving force behind the growing skill shares in manufacturing industries over the period 1970–85, an acceleration in the relative demand for skills appears to have propelled higher skill shares during the late 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s. Consistent with such a development is the finding of an increasing degree of complementarity between knowledge capital and skilled labor, and that Swedish manufacturing firms, in recent years, have invested heavily in R&D. There is also some support for the belief that intensified competition from the South has increased the relative demand for skilled labor. However, the impact appears to be small and essentially driven by the textile industry.     

Tax policy,capital use,and investment incentives

In this paper, we investigate the effect of a corporate income tax on the utilization and maintenance of capital and on the demand for capital stock and services. We find that a tax that allows interest deductions is distortionary unless allowable depreciation depends on the firm's utilization and maintenance decisions. Also, we show that the usual demand equation for capital stock is misspecified if capital utilization is not a technological constant.     

控股股东股权质押会增加企业权益资本成本吗——基于中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以2003—2014年A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨了控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的关系。本文研究发现,相较于不存在控股股东股权质押的上市公司,存在控股股东股权质押的上市公司的权益资本成本更高。进一步分析,本文发现股权质押引起的掏空行为发挥着中介作用,还发现控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的正相关关系在股价崩盘风险较高、上证A股指数较低、熊市年度组、信息质量较低组更加明显,这表明控股股东股权质押与上市公司权益资本成本之间的正相关关系是由控股股东股权质押引起的掏空行为和控制权转移风险引起的。最后,本文发现有效的公司治理能够缓解控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的正相关关系。本文的研究有助于进一步认识和了解控股股东股权质押可能产生的经济后果。