Implications of the global growth slowdown for rural poverty

Over the past 25 years, higher growth in developing countries has contributed to a dramatic fall in global poverty, although poverty rates in rural areas remain higher than in urban areas. Unfortunately, projected growth rates have fallen in recent years; this article examines the impact of this slowdown on the poor, particularly the rural poor. It first uses a global model to assess the impacts of lower productivity on key price and income variables. It then uses microsimulation models for almost 300,000 households to assess the impacts on their real incomes. Although poverty rates overall are projected to fall substantially, the poorest countries see the greatest slowdown in poverty reduction, with over 5% of their population projected to remain below the poverty line. In addition, poverty rates will remain alarmingly high in many countries. Overall, 38 million fewer people will leave extreme poverty compared to earlier projections. Farm households are at particular risk in middle‐income countries, with over 1.5% more of the farming population remaining trapped in poverty than previously estimated. By 2030, average extreme poverty in rural areas is projected at about 7.5%, rather than 7.1% under the earlier growth projections. Clearly, a strong focus on policies for poverty reduction will be vital for eliminating poverty by 2030.     

Agriculture and small towns in Africa

Africa is urbanizing rapidly. Yet most dual economy models focus on the sectoral rather than spatial dimensions of development. This article adopts a “dual–dual” approach to measuring rural/urban and farm/nonfarm linkages. We develop an economy‐wide model of Ethiopia that distinguishes between cities, towns, and rural areas. The model captures detailed sectoral and regional linkages, internal migration flows, and externalities from urban agglomeration. We find larger linkages between agricultural production and small towns and show that redirecting urban growth toward towns rather than cities leads to broader‐based economic growth and poverty reduction. In contrast, industry and services, particularly within cities, are far less effective in reaching rural areas and the poor. Africa's current urbanization pattern—toward major cities rather than towns—will weaken national growth–poverty linkages. Urbanization that takes advantage of the synergistic relationship between agriculture and small towns has the potential to result in a more inclusive growth trajectory.     

Agricultural commercialisation,asset growth and poverty in rural Vietnam

Poverty remains a substantial threat in rural areas of many developing countries, and solving this problem requires an in-depth understanding of the income generating capacity that determines poverty. This paper examines the impact of agricultural commercialisation on the capability of rural households to accumulate and productively use assets and reduce structural and multidimensional poverty. A longitudinal dataset of around 2000 households with a total of 9781 observations from five rural surveys undertaken in the period 2008–2017 in Vietnam is used. Results from a fixed effects regression with an instrumental variable and a control function approach show that agricultural commercialisation has a positive effect on the accumulation of assets and reduces multidimensional and structural poverty over time. However, the effect is not homogeneous and is larger for households that are not mainly engaged in rice commercialisation. This suggests that commercialisation can be a path out of poverty, especially if policy makers move towards utilising other crops instead of rice.     

Wages,Prices and Agriculture: How Can Indian Agriculture Cope with Rising Wages?

Rapid economic growth in India has resulted in rapidly rising rural wages. Using the framework of variable profit functions and household level data, we study econometrically the wage impacts on crop agriculture. Rising wages are associated with decreasing crop output, other things being equal. Crop prices would need to increase by 80% in the short run to offset the effect of an agricultural wage increase, or by 140% in the short run to offset rural non‐farm wage increases as well. However, because non‐land farm assets respond positively to the non‐farm wage, in the medium term this increase is reduced to 74%. During the period of 1999/00‐2007/08, growth in non‐land farm assets, the labour force, education and technology has easily compensated for the wage increase, and probably also for the accelerating wage growth. Focusing on growing these shifter variables is a much better policy option than raising prices that would come at the expense of consumers or taxpayers.     

Semi‐Subsistence Farming: An Elusive Concept Posing Thorny Policy Questions

The massive expansion of semi‐subsistence farming in the European Union after the Eastern enlargements poses a real challenge to rural development. The problems of semi‐subsistence farms are low cash incomes and incidence of poverty, sub‐optimal use of land and labour, a lack of capital and poor contribution to rural growth. However, they play an important welfare function in some rural areas in Europe; they manage more than 11 million ha of agricultural land and deliver ecosystem services. The Common Agricultural Policy will have to accommodate this now widespread production system, through existing or new policy packages. Particularly important is support for commercialisation to incentivise and smooth the transition to commercial agriculture, and agri‐environmental payments to compensate the semi‐subsistence farmers for the provision of ecosystem services.     

Poverty decline, agricultural wages, and nonfarm employment in rural India: 1983–2004

We analyze five rounds of National Sample Survey data covering 1983, 1987/1988, 1993/1994, 1999/2000, and 2004/2005 to explore the relationship between rural diversification and poverty. Poverty in rural India has declined at a modest rate during this time period. We provide region-level estimates that illustrate considerable geographic heterogeneity in this progress. Poverty estimates correlate well with region-level NSS data on changes in agricultural wage rates. Agricultural labor remains the preserve of the uneducated and also to a large extent of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. We show that while agricultural labor grew as a share of total economic activity over the first four rounds, it had fallen back to the levels observed at the beginning of our survey period by 2004. This all-India trajectory also masks widely varying trends across states. During this period, the rural nonfarm sector has grown modestly, mainly between the last two survey rounds. Regular nonfarm employment remains largely associated with education levels and social status that are rare among the poor. However, casual labor and self-employment in the nonfarm sector reveals greater involvement by disadvantaged groups in 2004 than in the preceding rounds. The implication of this for poverty is not immediately clear—the poor may be pushed into low-return casual nonfarm activities due to lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector rather than being pulled by high returns offered by the nonfarm sector. Econometric estimates reveal that expansion of the nonfarm sector is associated with falling poverty via two routes: a direct impact on poverty that is likely due to a pro-poor marginal incidence of nonfarm employment expansion; and an indirect impact attributable to the positive effect of nonfarm employment growth on agricultural wages. The analysis also confirms the important contribution to rural poverty reduction from agricultural productivity, availability of land, and consumption levels in proximate urban areas.     

MGNREGA in Tamil Nadu: A Story of Success and Transformation?

Social protection has emerged as a key driver of development policy at the beginning of the twenty‐first century. It is widely considered a ‘good thing’ that has the potential not only to alleviate poverty and vulnerability, but also to generate more transformative outcomes in terms of empowerment and social justice. Based on an ethnographic study of the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), India's flagship social protection policy, this paper takes a critical look at what this policy's ‘success’ consists of. The study was carried out in Tamil Nadu, a state widely presented as a ‘success’ in terms of MGNREGA's implementation, and describes who participates in the scheme and how success is understood and expressed at different social and bureaucratic levels. In terms of MGNREGA's outcomes, we conclude that the scheme is benefitting the poorest households – and Dalits and women in particular – especially in terms of providing a safety net and as a tool for poverty alleviation. But the scheme does more than that. It has also produced significant transformative outcomes for rural labourers, such as pushing up rural wage levels, enhancing low‐caste workers' bargaining power in the labour market and reducing their dependency on high‐caste employers. These benefits are not only substantial but also transformative in that they affect rural relations of production and contribute to the empowerment of the rural labouring poor. However, in terms of creating durable assets and promoting grassroots democracy, the scheme's outcomes are much less encouraging.     

精准扶贫背景下扶贫资产管理的实践与机制创新

[目的]脱贫攻坚战略实施以来,各地区形成和沉淀了大量的农业、产业扶贫项目资产,而扶贫资产管理作为持续发挥项目效益、巩固脱贫质量的重要抓手,试点地区实践情况亟待加以梳理与分析。[方法]文章在文献梳理的基础上以流程化管理理论为切入点,探讨了扶贫资产内涵及部分试点地区实施现状,在解析问题的基础上构建扶贫资产"七步法"的流程化管理模式。[结果]部分试点地区积极探索扶贫资产管理模式并取得了一定的成效;但部分地区仍存在产权界定不清晰、收益分配不合理、监管不到位等问题,而完善扶贫资产管理机制能够有效解决"管什么"和"怎么管"的难题,进一步实现管理效率的提升。[结论]各地区应坚持以人为本、因地制宜的原则,积极探索并实施差异化的扶贫资产管理模式,切实提升扶贫资产管理效率为实现与乡村振兴的有效衔接奠定基础。     

中国农村减贫成效测度、分解及影响因素研究——基于分布动态学框架的CFPS数据分析

测算农村减贫成效并考察减贫成效的影响因素对我国打赢"脱贫攻坚战"具有重要的现实意义。本文基于覆盖我国东、中、西和东北四大地区的CFPS调查数据,在Quah(1997)的分布动态学(Distribution dynamics)基础上构建了完整的减贫成效分析框架。首先测算出各地区农村家庭贫困内部状态的Markov转移概率矩阵,并在此基础上构建了可分解的绝对、相对减贫指数,以综合考察各地区的农村减贫成效,随后本文通过首次构造的"条件Markov模型"进一步考察了减贫成效的影响因素。研究结果发现:(1)样本考察期内,我国各地区的农村贫困状况随着时间的积累逐渐变好,贫困发生率均有所下降;(2)减贫过程中仍存在着脱贫又返贫的现象,农村家庭的深度贫困固化问题比轻度贫困问题更加严重,意味着扶贫开发工作正式进入攻坚时期,扶贫难度加大;(3)家庭成年成员特征、家庭特征以及收入类型对农村减贫成效的影响显著性情况存在着时段和区域的异质性。其中,家庭成年成员受教育水平、家庭中是否有成员从事有薪酬的农业劳动、工资性和营业性收入对家庭的贫困状态变动具有更显著的影响。基于此,政府应贯彻落实精准扶贫,将扶贫重点放在中西部地区和处于深度贫困的家庭,另外应再调整和倾斜扶贫资源与扶贫政策,将提高农民受教育水平、增加非农业就业机会作为主要减贫途径,将促进农村工资性和营业性收入增长作为主要的政策倾斜方向。     

Poverty and Dependency in Indigenous Rural Livelihoods: Mapuche Experiences in the Andean Foothills of Chile

Rural livelihoods are complex systems of interrelating factors that include human, social, natural, physical and financial capitals. By looking at these capitals in the context of a rural Mapuche community in the Andean foothills, in the local area of Curarrehue (Araucanía Region), it is possible to discern the different challenges being faced and how these can be contextualized in terms of poverty and vulnerability linked to a limited resource base, and also the strong dependent relation with the state and its diverse public policies in the region. Using semi‐structured interviews with the community members, public‐sector officers and academics, and also field observations, this complex local scenario is analysed with a view to understanding the threats that exist for Mapuche livelihoods and the assets that they can mobilize to counter these threats. The paper concludes that physical, natural and financial assets are severely limited and remain the reasons why there is heavy dependency on state resources to maintain these subsistence livelihoods. Traditional knowledge is losing ground against increasingly transcultural influences and practices, while endemic biodiversity is being replaced with monoculture. Consequently, community members (human capital) – in particular, the younger generations – are leaving the community to seek more viable livelihood options, mostly in urban areas. These factors point to the limitations of these local livelihoods based on dependent small‐scale subsistence farming continuing in their current form. This situation poses a serious challenge for Mapuche rural communities and their traditional practices, and also for the Chilean state and the relationship between the two.     

基于地理探测器的典型喀斯特地区贫困空间分异特征与影响因素分析

[目的]为研究喀斯特地区贫困空间分异特征及其影响因素,文章以典型喀斯特区安顺市为研究区域,基于2015年安顺市村域贫困发生率数据,选择9个地理因素研究其对贫困空间分异的影响。[方法]综合运用核密度分析、空间自相关分析、地理探测器等方法,定量评估了喀斯特地区农村贫困空间异质性的成因。[结果](1)安顺市南部较北部贫困程度高、贫困规模大,且存在空间贫困陷阱;(2)从各因子对贫困发生率的解释力看,耕地占比(q=0.28)、平均高程(q=0.2)和平均坡度(q=0.19)是决定贫困发生率空间异质性的主导因子。平均高程与耕地占比因子耦合作用对贫困发生率空间异质性的解释力最大(q=0.34);(3)分贫困程度后,除石漠化的决定力增强外,其他各因子的决定力均减少。平均高程对轻度和重度贫困的决定力均最大(q=0.12,q=0.09)。[结论]在典型喀斯特地区,耕地资源和高程是贫困空间异质性的主要原因,石漠化对贫困的影响随贫困程度的增加而增强。因子间的耦合作用程度在不同贫困程度区域的差异显著,重度贫困地区的致贫因素更为复杂。因此,喀斯特贫困地区实施乡村振兴战略,应综合考虑不同贫困程度区域贫困形成机制,基于案例推理构建各贫困程度地区的定量化情景模拟模型是今后工作的重点。     

Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India

Using state-level data for 1970–93, a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on rural poverty and productivity growth in India. The results show that in order to reduce rural poverty, the Indian government should give highest priority to additional investments in rural roads and agricultural research. These types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment, but also generate higher productivity growth. Apart from government spending on education, which has the third largest marginal impact on rural poverty and productivity growth, other investments (including irrigation, soil and water conservation, health, and rural and community development) have only modest impacts on growth and poverty per additional rupee spent.     

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well‐being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.     

Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

We find that large short-term precipitation shocks damage the long-term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit-constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long-term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long-term losses.     

Asset versus consumption poverty and poverty dynamics in rural Ethiopia

Several studies have shown conceptually that assets form a more robust basis for identifying the poor than do flow variables like expenditures or income. Asset‐based poverty classification can be used to distinguish structural from stochastic poverty and can enable projection of poverty dynamics through time. Nonetheless, little work has empirically compared poverty measurement based on assets and expenditures to indicate the practical implications of the choice of poverty measure. This article uses panel data (between 1994 and 2004) from Ethiopia to generate asset‐ and expenditures‐based poverty classifications. Asset dynamics are then explored to test for the existence of multiple asset index equilibria that could constitute evidence of poverty traps. Results provide evidence of multiple equilibria and show that the asset‐based poverty classifications predict future asset and expenditures poverty status more accurately than expenditures‐based measures. The findings confirm that the asset‐based measure could be used to more carefully target poverty interventions.     

衔接过渡期扶贫资产差异化治理研究

扶贫资产的衍生主要与扶贫行为和扶贫资金投入相关。根据资金投入领域的不同,扶贫资产进一步分化为政府资产、村集体资产、贫困户家庭资产及组合型资产等。由于资产类型的多样化,"差异化治理"成为实现扶贫资产有效治理的重要保障。应从晰化产权主体、细化责任主体、优化管理方式、活化资产使用、具化收益分配入手,推进扶贫资产差异化治理,确保治理有效。     

经济发展与农村减贫耦合机理及协调性研究以重庆市为例

目的 为探究重庆市经济发展水平与农村减贫耦合协调的时空格局。方法 文章在分析经济发展与农村减贫耦合机理的基础上，使用洛伦兹曲线和耦合协调模型，定量测算33个涉及扶贫开发任务区县经济发展与农村减贫的耦合协调度。结果 （1）经济发展对于农村减贫具有正向带动作用，但随着脱贫攻坚的深入，经济发展带动农村减贫的作用逐渐减弱；（2）重庆市县域经济发展水平整体呈现“一圈两翼”的特征，中心城区及周围区县为经济发展高值区，渝东南武陵山区和渝东北秦巴山区为经济发展低值区，贫困空间分布格局与之相反；（3）重庆市县域经济发展与农村减贫的耦合协调度呈现显著的空间不均衡格局，在主城都市区形成了明显的高值区，渝东北和渝东南连片特困地区形成明显的低值区；从时间序列来看，耦合协调状态整体呈现逐级正向跃迁的趋势。结论 基于经济发展与农村减贫耦合协调状态的空间差异性，未来应因地制宜、分区分类精准施策，稳步推进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的衔接。     

衔接过渡期扶贫资产差异化治理研究

扶贫资产的衍生主要与扶贫行为和扶贫资金投入相关。根据资金投入领域的不同,扶贫资产进一步分化为政府资产、村集体资产、贫困户家庭资产及组合型资产等。由于资产类型的多样化,"差异化治理"成为实现扶贫资产有效治理的重要保障。应从晰化产权主体、细化责任主体、优化管理方式、活化资产使用、具化收益分配入手,推进扶贫资产差异化治理,确保治理有效。     

“十四五”时期中国农村发展若干重大问题

"十四五"时期是中国经济社会发展的重要转折时期,其规划制定必须处理好继承和创新的关系,实现继承性与创新性相统一。新中国70年的持续发展、40多年的农村改革经验以及"十三五"规划的有序推进,为"十四五"时期中国农村发展奠定了坚实的基础。随着2020年全面建成小康社会和脱贫攻坚目标的实现,中国将进入高水平全面建成小康社会进而向富裕社会迈进的"后小康"时代,国家"三农"工作的重点将逐步由脱贫攻坚转移到全面实施乡村振兴战略上来。在"十四五"时期,立足"两个阶段"发展目标,进一步巩固提高农村全面小康质量、为农业农村基本现代化开好局将成为核心主题。围绕这一核心主题,中国农村发展需要着力解决好五个重大问题,即建设高水平的农村全面小康、夯实农业农村基本现代化的基础、实现由脱贫攻坚到乡村振兴的转型、破解粮食安全和农民增收难题以及推动农村改革由试点走向全面推开。     

In Search of Pathways out of Poverty: Mapping the Role of International Labour Migration,Agriculture and Rural Labour

The issue of rural poverty continues to shape critical academic and policy discourses in the global South. In such discourses, some scholars and policy‐makers highlight non‐agrarian pathways leading to prosperity, while others continue to emphasize the significance of land and farming for poverty reduction. However, such analyses tend not only to obscure strong linkages between agriculture, migration and rural labour, but also stay silent on how rural people interpret changes or continuities in their livelihoods. In this paper, I focus on the case of rural Nepal to unfold how some rural people, but not others, improve their livelihoods through international labour migration, farming and rural labour. This paper reveals that many poor people have experienced improved livelihoods pursuing a diverse portfolio of agricultural and non‐agricultural activities including labour migration. However, the dispossession of poor people from land and their adverse incorporation into the local and international labour markets continue to perpetuate chronic poverty.