Selling off the public estate: A broker's view

There is much contemporary discussion about the impact on the UK of the creation of a single market amongst the member nations of the European Community (EC) in 1992. This impact needs to be assessed as precisely as possible given the unsubstantiated and conflicting claims being made. Because 1992 purports to be a further removal of trade barriers within the EC, the most accurate guide to its probable effect is a study of the impact of EC membership to date. This article analyses historical experience in order to reveal future trends.     

THE IMPACT OF EC-92 ON TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

How is the attempt of the European Community (EC) to createa single market going to affect the developing countries? Thisarticle argues that the net direct effects of EC-92 may be rathersmall: the trade creation and trade diversion effects broughtabout by the program may cancel each other out, with few repercussionsfor the developing countries as a group. The expected changesin trade flows arising from relatively small changes in nominalprices and aggregate incomes, the changes in market structure,the removal of internal barriers, and a predicted 5 percentincrease in EC output may be important to European policymakers,but they are rather remote from the developing countries. The threat of EC-92 to the developing countries lies elsewhere:from diversion of investment from those countries to the ECand from the resurrection of protectionism by the EC, especiallyin the form of nontariff barriers, toward the outside world.      

The Evolution of the Belt and Road Trade Network and Its Determinant Factors

ABSTRACT

This study reveals the evolution of the Belt and Road trade network, and discusses the determinant factors of trade relationships by employing network analysis methods. Using 65 countries’ trade flow data in 2012, 2014, and 2016, the network indices show that the Belt and Road initiative has improved trade network’s connectivity significantly. The results of blockmodels show that the trade network can be partitioned into four blocks, including “Dominators,” “Brokers,” “Generators,” and “Receivers.” Furthermore, the spatial proximity, cultural differences, trade agreements, economic distance, and trade facilitations have significant impacts on the formation of trade network according to the QAP model.     

Is the Magic of the Diaspora Fact or Fiction? A Study of Taiwan’s Trade Performance in the Bamboo Network

Abstract

In this study, we examine the relationship between the ethnic Chinese diaspora network (i.e., bamboo network) and Taiwan’s trade performance. The models are based on theories of international trade to examine hypotheses using panel data from the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) from 1996 to 2012. The results indicate that the bamboo network has limited effects on Taiwan’s trade performance. Hence, the “magic” effect of the Chinese diaspora is debatable.     

Universal price impact functions of individual trades in an order-driven market

The trade size ω has a direct impact on the price formation of the stock traded. Econophysical analyses of transaction data for the US and Australian stock markets have uncovered market-specific scaling laws, where a master curve of price impact can be obtained in each market when stock capitalization C is included as an argument in the scaling relation. However, the rationale of introducing stock capitalization in the scaling is unclear and the anomalous negative correlation between price change r and trade size ω for small trades is unexplained. Here we show that these issues can be addressed by taking into account the aggressiveness of orders that result in trades together with a proper normalization technique. Using order book data from the Chinese market, we show that trades from filled and partially filled limit orders have very different price impacts. The price impact of trades from partially filled orders is constant when the volume is not too large, while that of filled orders shows power-law behavior r?～?ω^α with α?≈?2/3. When returns and volumes are normalized by stock-dependent averages, capitalization-independent scaling laws emerge for both types of trades. However, no scaling relation in terms of stock capitalization can be constructed. In addition, the relation α?=?α_ω/α _r is verified for some individual stocks and for the whole data set containing all stocks using partially filled trades, where α_ω and α _r are the tail exponents of trade sizes and returns. These observations also enable us to explain the anomalous negative correlation between r and ω for small-size trades.     

Services in the new industrial economy

‘Manufacturing matters’,¹ but ‘So do services’. The future of industrialization is the future of both these increasingly intertwined and interdependent activities. Rather than a post-industrial society, we are seeing a new mode of industrialization encompassing and integrating manufacturing and services. This article considers the prospects for services in the new industrial economy,² focusing on innovation in services. Services have frequently been considered to be relatively poor in economic performance. However, regarding services as laggards is decreasingly useful when considering contemporary services, many of which are the major users, carriers and promoters of many classes of innovative hardware. New services (such as software and telematics) are performing vital roles in the diffusion of new technologies, techniques and organizational styles. This article outlines some trends in the service economy, examines the special nature of services, considers how services are changing their products and processes, and assesses emerging strategies for organization and trade in services.     

进口贸易对我国区域产业结构调整影响的实证研究

依据转移份额分析法,将产业结构分解为构成效应与竞争效用,并运用我国省际面板数据,研究进口贸易对产业结构构成效应与竞争效用的影响。研究结论表明:在我国东中西部地区,进口贸易对产业结构构成与竞争效应都存在显著性的正向作用,即进口贸易的增加不仅有利于地区产业结构由不协调向协调、由低级向高级发展,也有利提高地区产业结构中优势产业的竞争力,保持产业发展中的竞争优势。另外,从地区间的比较分析发现,进口贸易对产业结构的构成与竞争效应影响效果都是由东向西逐渐递减的。     

Cross-listing as a Global Depository Receipt: The influence of emerging markets,regulation, and accounting regime

This paper examines factors influencing international firms’ decisions to cross-list as Global Depository Receipts (GDRs). We focus on differences in regulatory and accounting requirements between exchanges and the economic clustering that has arisen with increasing globalization. An important economic influence on this decision is the home country, reflecting trade ties. Higher US regulation and governance requirements influence firms from emerging markets to issue GDRs rather than ADRs on a US exchange. Using local GAAP or IFRS also tends to deter firms from listing as an ADR, suggesting that the cost of US GAAP reconciliation is an important consideration in the decision to list as a GDR or an ADR.     

人民币汇率与东亚经济体汇率的相关性分析

随着中国经济近年来的快速增长,人民币在周边国家和地区得到了普遍认可。文章通过对8个东亚经济体汇率受其他货币汇率影响情况的实证研究,发现尽管美元影响向力仍为主导,但人民币对这些货币汇率的影响力正在逐步提升。近年来,中国与东亚经济体贸易联系的日益加强和东亚经济体汇率政策的调整,可能是人民币在东亚地区影响力增强的两个主要原因。     

“10＋3”框架下东亚区域货币合作可行性分析与战略选择——基于经济冲击对称性视角

东亚各国目前在货币领域的合作严重滞后于贸易合作,2008年全球金融危机的爆发使东亚货币合作面临着前所未有的挑战。根据传统的OCA标准,目前东亚各国内部经济条件差异较大,而且这种差异有逐步扩大的趋势,因此进行深层次货币合作的成本较高。基于经济冲击对称性的实证分析进一步表明,中日韩二三国货币冲击的对称性较高,但是在供给冲击和需求冲击方面存在非对称性,而且这种非对称性在短期更为明显。与日韩相比,中国与东盟之间经济冲击的对称程度相对较高,具备一定的合作优势。因此中国应以贸易合作为基础,加强同东亚主要经济体的经贸往来,共同引领东亚货币合作向更高层次迈进。     

Financial Intermediaries and the Cross‐Section of Asset Returns

Financial intermediaries trade frequently in many markets using sophisticated models. Their marginal value of wealth should therefore provide a more informative stochastic discount factor (SDF) than that of a representative consumer. Guided by theory, we use shocks to the leverage of securities broker‐dealers to construct an intermediary SDF. Intuitively, deteriorating funding conditions are associated with deleveraging and high marginal value of wealth. Our single‐factor model prices size, book‐to‐market, momentum, and bond portfolios with an R² of 77% and an average annual pricing error of 1%—performing as well as standard multifactor benchmarks designed to price these assets.     

The effect of antidumping and countervailing investigations on the market value of firms

Using a sample of listed Chinese firms between 2006 and 2012, we analyze the effect of international business strategy and government assistance on the stock market response to antidumping and countervailing investigations. We find a significantly negative abnormal return surrounding the announcements of antidumping and countervailing investigations. Furthermore, the establishment of a plant in a non-subject or “non-named”¹ country and government assistance are positively related to the abnormal returns of antidumping and countervailing investigations. Our results suggest that government assistance is as important as strategic restructuring to offset the negative effect of trade remedy investigations.     

加工贸易、汇率和中国的双边贸易平衡

本文基于中国(指中国大陆地区,下同)与51个贸易国家和地区之间的1993-2008年的面板数据,研究了加工贸易在中国双边贸易平衡中的作用,以及人民币升值对加工贸易的影响。实证分析表明:(1)在此期间中国每年的贸易顺差,都来自于加工贸易;(2)中国的加工贸易呈现明显的区域偏好——在2008年77%的加工贸易进口来自于东亚经济体,但是只有29%的加工贸易出口面向东亚经济体;(3)人民币升值对加工贸易的出口和进口都具有负面影响——人民币实际升值10%,不仅会使中国加工贸易出口下降9.1%,也会导致加工贸易进口下降5.0%.因此,人民币的适度升值对于中国加工贸易以及整体贸易平衡的改善作用有限。     

Domestic and foreign trade credit in the Netherlands an econometric analysis

In this study the determinants of both domestic and foreign trade credit are investigated. Data were obtained from about 1600 industrial firms in The Netherlands with 100 or more employees and covering the period 1957–1971. The main findings are as follows. In the first place, (net) trade credit turns out to be a structural source of funds for the weaker firms in the simple. Secondly, these weaker firms receive more (net) trade credit when monetary policy is tightened (this could be an argument for the authorities to pursue a general monetary policy). Finally, it appears that it is especially the buyer (debtor) who may ‘lead’ or ‘lag’ international payments in the short run.     

The informational effect and market quality impact of upstairs trading and fleeting orders on the Australian Securities Exchange

This paper investigates the informational effect of trading and market segmentation on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) paying particular attention to the recent phenomenon: fleeting orders.¹ Confirming theoretical predictions, this study finds that permanent price effect (PPE) is significantly greater in the central limit order book (LOB) than in the upstairs market and that less informed institutional trades are routed to the upstairs market. It also finds that a well functioning upstairs market often results in lower transaction cost, higher volatility and larger trade size on the ASX. In the context of fleeting orders specifically, it finds the informational effect and market quality impact of upstairs market to be weaker after removing fleeting orders, which subsequently leads to the conclusion that recently introduced execution algorithms, which leave a trace of fleeting orders, often result in lower PPE and are mostly used my uninformed liquidity traders.     

东亚区域经济合作与吉林经济发展战略的选择

放眼当今世界,东亚地区已成为最令世人瞩目的亮点之一——整个东亚地区快速崛起。在这一过程中,东亚区域经济在快速发展的同时不断地整合,地区经济合作已成为可以预期的基本趋势。面对这一有利时机和具有挑战性的机遇,吉林作为中国东亚腹地贸易通道的内陆边境地区,如何在东亚区域经济合作进程中趋利避害,找准一条切合自身发展的新路子,更好地融入东亚乃至世界经济大潮中参与合作和竞争,这是经济全球化新形势下推进吉林经济发展战略必须思考的问题。     

On the equivalence of the static and dynamic asset allocation problems

A classic dynamic asset allocation problem optimizes the expected final-time utility of wealth, for an individual who can invest in a risky stock and a risk-free bond, trading continuously in time. Recently, several authors considered the corresponding static asset allocation problem in which the individual cannot trade but can invest in options as well as the underlying. The optimal static strategy can never do better than the optimal dynamic one. Surprisingly, however, for some market models the two approaches are equivalent. When this happens the static strategy is clearly preferable, since it avoids any impact of market frictions. This paper examines the question: when, exactly, are the static and dynamic approaches equivalent? We give an easily tested necessary and sufficient condition, and many non-trivial examples. Our analysis assumes that the stock follows a scalar diffusion process, and uses the completeness of the resulting market model. A simple special case is when the drift and volatility depend only on time; then the two approaches are equivalent precisely if (μ (t)? r)/σ²(t) is constant. This is not the Sharpe ratio or the market price of risk, but rather a nondimensional ratio of excess return to squared volatility that arises naturally in portfolio optimization problems.     

ECU curriculum responds to the needs of multiple constituents

This paper presents an application of a curriculum reform model to a real world situation at East Carolina University. It reviews accounting curricula and the impetus for change in accounting programs with special attention given to three forces driving accounting curriculum reform:

• 1.1. the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) call for a 150-semester-hour requirement for membership.
• 2.2. the American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business' (AACSB) new accreditation standards, and
• 3.3. the changing needs and expectations of the accounting profession.

After an examination of how these and several other factors influence the accounting curriculum, reform strategies are discussed. A case study outlining the process that East Carolina University (ECU) underwent to achieve its new dual track accounting curriculum is presented. The dual tracks consist of a 120-h BSBA with a concentration in managerial accounting and a 150-h BSA/MSA in accounting.     

人民币在东亚区域货币“锚”效应及其影响因素研究

本文运用状态空间模型的时变参数回归,测度2005年7月21日-2018年9月30日不同阶段人民币在东亚区域的货币"锚"效应,并利用变截距固定效应面板模型对人民币在东亚区域内货币"锚"效应的多重影响因素进行分析。研究表明,美元在东亚区域内货币"锚"效应略有下降,但仍然难以取代;欧元和英镑在东亚区域内货币"锚"效应下降很大;而日元近几年在东亚区域内货币"锚"效应显著提升;人民币在东亚区域的货币"锚"效应自2010年以来显著提升,大部分时期已经接近美元的水平,但很容易受国际经济形势和突发事件的影响。东亚其他国家和地区与中国大陆的经济增长率差异、通货膨胀率差异、利率差异,东亚其他国家和地区对中国大陆产品市场依赖程度和人民币国际化程度都对人民币在东亚区域发挥"锚"效应有显著影响。其中,东亚其他国家和地区与中国大陆经济周期同步性、东亚其他国家和地区对中国大陆产品市场依赖程度和人民币国际化程度是推动人民币在东亚区域内货币"锚"效应提升的最主要因素。