浅析人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响

文章依据大量的历史统计资料,首先深入剖析了我国进出口贸易现状和汇率的变动情况。其次在前人对汇率变动和进出口贸易关系的理论及实证研究的基础上,收集1999—2018年人民币对美元汇率和进出口贸易总额时间序列数据进行了相关性分析和检验,分析人民币汇率波动是否对中国进出口贸易有所影响,得出的结果表明人民币汇率波动的确对我国进出口贸易存在着显著的影响,而且对我国出口贸易具有不可忽视的影响。最后根据人民币汇率的波动对我国贸易收支的显著影响提出政策建议,只有保证汇率的平稳波动,才能保证国际贸易收支相对稳定[1]。     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品贸易影响的实证分析

汇率被认为是影响对外贸易重要的宏观变量。本文采用协整分析方法探讨人民币汇率改革以来的实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品进出口的影响。实证分析结果表明,汇率与机电产品进出口贸易额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但对进口的影响作用更大;马歇尔．勒纳条件成立,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电产品进出口贸易的影响存在J曲线效应。     

人民币汇率变动对出口商品价格的非对称传递效应研究

以中国的20种主要出口商品作为研究对象,考察1997年一季度至2016年四季度期间,人民币汇率变动对于出口商品价格的非对称传递特征。研究发现,人民币汇率变动产生了显著的非对称传递效应,人民币升值对出口贸易的负面冲击远强于人民币贬值对出口贸易的促进作用,人民币汇率的大幅变动对出口商品价格的影响也远强于汇率小幅变动的情形。汇率传递效应在汇改前后表现出动态的非对称性,汇率因素对出口商品价格的影响在2005年汇改之后才开始显现。由于进口投入品比例上的商品异质性,汇率传递效应及其非对称性传递特征仅限于资源性产品和中低技术制成品,而高技术产品的出口价格很大程度上规避了汇率因素的影响。     

汇率变动对宏观经济的影响

本文分析了汇率变动对宏观经济的影响。本文的分析认为,汇率的变动对宏观经济有着重要影响,这种影响既体现在对进出口及国际收支的直接影响,也体现在对经济增长、货币供应量以及价格水平等宏观变量的间接影响。在此基础上,本文构造了人民币加权汇率,分析了人民币汇率的变化对中国国内经济的影响,并对近来关于人民币升值的争论提出了看法。     

人民币汇率变动对中国水产品贸易影响的实证分析 ——以1992-2017年藻类产品贸易数据为例

近年来,人民币汇率的变化一再成为国内外关注的焦点。汇率是国际贸易中的重要调整杠杆和抓手。人民币汇率的变动所带来的影响将不可避免地波及到中国产品的进出口贸易。本文选取1992-2017年的重要水产品(藻类产品)出口贸易及总产量的年度数据及汇率的年度数据,采用单位根检验,协整检验和状态空间模型,实证研究人民币实际汇率变化对中国藻类出口贸易的影响。状态空间模型可以获得汇率与出口之间影响的时变系数,这比静态模型更准确和真实。研究结果表明,人民币汇率与中国藻类产品出口贸易存在协整关系,人民币贬值可以刺激藻类产品的出口。研究人民币汇率变动对中国藻类产品贸易之间的关系,有利于将汇率制度做进一步的完善,根据人民币汇率变动对贸易的影响制定相应的贸易政策,同时尽可能避免汇率风险。     

人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响

本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。     

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响

汇率作为外汇市场上的一种重要标识,起着调节国际贸易,方便外汇市场上各国货币相互交换的比价的作用。自从改革开放来,国家打开了对外开放的大门,使得我国的经济对外依赖度很高。让汇率与国情相结合,分析汇率变动如何影响着我国的进出口贸易。本文作者通过对1994年以来的汇率变动分析图来向我们展示自改革开放以来汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响,得出人民币汇率的升降关乎着我国的进出口贸易,也牵动着我国的经济影响。     

中印贸易汇率传递效应与影响因素研究

文章依据2007-2016年中印贸易数据,基于向量自回归Wald-Granger外生性检验、VECM模型引入供求、政策、竞争国价格、边际成本分析汇率传递效应,并对进出口双边汇率与多边汇率的贸易传递效应进行对照研究。结果表明:多边汇率下进出口历史价格对当期价格影响长期达到80%以上,基于多边汇率参考历史价格对预测贸易价格非常有价值;双边与多边汇率传递效应均为不完全传递,我国进口商依宏观形势选择合作地厂商使得进口传递效应小于出口;多边汇率对出口价格的传递率更高,印度进口商对中国总体贸易形势变动更敏感,期望减少因汇率变动导致的进口成本损失;我国为价格主动者,印度为价格追随者,但中国打开印度市场策略较为激进。     

人民币实际汇率及其波动对中美进出口贸易影响的实证研究要要基于VAR模型和VEC模型的分析

文章构造中美出口和进口贸易模型,通过 VAR 模型和 VEC 模型分析人民币实际汇率及其波动对中美进出口贸易的影响.实证表明:短期内人民币升值对进口的促进作用大于出口,长期内升值有利于中国对美出口而不利于进口;汇率波动短期内对出口的冲击大于进口,长期内有助于中国对美出口,对进口无影响.中美两国要调整各自贸易结构,保持人民币汇率稳定、防止汇率大幅波动,才能最终解决中美贸易失衡.     

人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响分析

1994年人民币汇率并轨以来,我国对外贸易发展迅速。2005年进出口总值达14224.4亿美元,外贸依存度超过70%,进出口贸易的快速增长有力地促进了国民经济的发展。2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革初步确立了人民币长期升值趋势,人民币兑美元名义汇率至今已升值约3.3%。理论上,人民币升值将影响到我国进出口贸易的健康发展。本文基于克莱因模型,采用1999￣2005年季度数据,建立我国进口、出口的自回归双对数模型,深入分析人民币汇率变动对我国实际进出口的影响,以期为对外贸易政策的制定和宏观调控提供决策依据。     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

汇率变动对我国商品贸易结构影响研究

汇率作为相对价格和政策变量,具有引导贸易流向和调整贸易结构的作用。由于汇率变动引起生产中所使用要素相对价格发生变化,从而改变一国生产某类商品比较优势程度发生变化,使统一汇率政策可以成为差别产业贸易政策。本文从我国进出口商品贸易结构以及贸易国别来源角度分析人民币汇率改制后我国进出口商品贸易结构变化。采用实证方法考察人民币实际汇率变动对我国进口和出口商品贸易结构的影响。     

An input–output model of exchange-rate pass-through

The impact of the exchange rate on price formation is often debated through a mechanism called the exchange-rate pass-through. Studies of the pass-through generally rely on econometric analysis implemented on time series data. This study examines pass-through to the domestic price level through an input–output model. The proposed model is implemented on a sample of countries, and a number of different variables connected to the pass-through are examined. A comparison across countries and sectors highlights the importance of the construction sector in price formation. National income is negatively related to the pass-through. A high dependence on intermediate imports implies higher pass-through. Price level volatility and pass-through are positively related; whereas a country’s monetary policy stance has no apparent effect. The effect of exchange-rate volatility is unclear; it is negative for the real effective exchange rate, the connection is very weak in the case of the nominal exchange rate.     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

An elasticity approach to the analysis of Romanian foreign trade policy during the years of transition

This paper focuses on the effect of exchange rate variations on the economic evolution of a country in transition, facing inflation, output decrease and negative external shocks; the particular case of Romania is considered. The theoretical part is linked to the Fleming-Mundell model for an open economy, but additional assumptions of price mobility and capital immobility are introduced. The usual interest rate versus output graphic framework is switched from one to another, which plots the exchange rate (or real exchange rate) versus output; the author considers that such a representation fits the behavior of an economy in transition towards a market-based system better. A main role, according to this interpretation, is played by the exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, which influence the images of the equilibria on the goods market and the balance of payment (the IS and BOP curves' slopes). Finally, an empirical analysis is made, as an example, on the Romanian energy imports data series; the attempts to calculate the exchange rate elasticity may be considered as reliable only in the short term. In order to estimate the global exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, some aggregations of partial sectorial results might be a possible solution. In the Romanian case, the resulting elasticities seem to be lower than for other countries; this poses the question as to the effectiveness of exchange rate policies in managing the Romanian economy.     

On exchange rates and economic growth

Extending Ireland's (1994) model, this paper analyzes an international economy where cash or credit can be used for payment. Foreign trade credit is more costly than its domestic analog. A depreciation of the real exchange rate is associated with an external surplus and a reduced share of imports purchased with credit. Economic growth slows when foreign trade credit becomes the predominant means of payment for international transactions. A country with high inflation exports its Tobin effect and thus temporarily increases world growth.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH

Abstract. The resilience of trade balances of the major industrialized economies to changes in their exchange rates has evoked interest in the exchange rate pass-through relationship. So far, there has not been a comprehensive survey of this literature. The paper aims to fill this gap in two ways. First, it pieces together the theoretical literature on exchange rate pass-through. Second, it provides a critical survey of the empirical literature on exchange rate pass-through. Emphasis is placed on the data and methodology employed in previous work. This is done in order to guide future work in this growing area of research.     

Import elasticities and the external constraint in Mexico

The paper estimates and analyzes an equation for intermediate imports in Mexico during the 1988–2006 post-liberalization period. While some results are obtained from Johansen's VECM model, most of the analysis is carried out within an Error-Correction ARDL framework, following the bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). Besides showing that an aggregate equation for intermediate imports can be satisfactorily estimated, the paper focuses on two specific results. First, exports have a very significant effect on imports, and failure to control for this effect (as in most previous studies) can yield misleading results, like an over-estimation of the output elasticity of imports. Second, the response of imports to variations in the real exchange rate has fallen over time, presumably because of the rising share of maquila in Mexico's export basket and the increasing “vertical specialization” of non-maquila export production. Some implications of the estimation results are briefly discussed, making reference to the possible external constraint on Mexico's economic growth.     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.