DOES EDUCATION LOAN DEBT INFLUENCE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL DISTRESS? AN ASSESSMENT USING THE 2007–2009 SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES PANEL

Families with student loans in 2007 have higher levels of financial distress than families without such loans, and these families also transitioned to financial distress at higher rates during the early stages of the Great Recession. This correlation persists once we control for a host of other demographic, work‐status, and household balance sheet measures. Families with an average level of student loans were 3.1 percentage points more likely to be 60 days late paying bills and 3 percentage points more likely to be denied credit. Families with other types of consumer debt were no more or less likely to be financially distressed. (JEL D14, H81, I22)     

HOW DO SPEED AND SECURITY INFLUENCE CONSUMERS' PAYMENT BEHAVIOR?

The Federal Reserve named improvements in the speed and security of the payment system as two of its policy initiatives for 2012–2016. Using new data from the 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) and models from earlier research, we estimate how various aspects of speed and security influence consumers' decisions to adopt and use payment instruments. Some aspects of speed and security have a statistically significant influence on the adoption and use of selected payment instruments, but not as much as other characteristics of payment instruments. Using econometric models to simulate selected policies proposed by the Fed, we show that faster speed of payment deduction for Automatic Clearing House (ACH) transactions would slightly increase consumers' adoption of ACH‐based payment methods, while enhanced security of payment cards would marginally increase the use of credit and debit cards. However, neither improvement is likely to increase consumer welfare much because consumer demand for payments is very inelastic with respect to speed and security. Our analysis focuses exclusively on consumers' behavior and does not include potential benefits of improvements to the payment system that would directly benefit businesses or financial institutions. In addition, preventing security breaches may preserve public confidence in the payment system, benefitting consumers even if they do not change their payment behavior. (JEL D12, D14, E58)     

R&D investment,cash holdings and the financial crisis: evidence from Korean corporate data

This article examines the real effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on corporate R&D investment by analyzing firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2011 obtained from KIS-VALUE, a Korean corporate finance database. I estimate a dynamic panel model of R&D investment that includes an after-crisis dummy to reflect the effects of the external finance supply shock after the financial crisis, an interaction term of the dummy and cash holdings to measure the marginal effect of cash holdings after the crisis, investment opportunities (sales and the q ratio) and financial positions as the debt-equity ratio. The estimation implies a negative yet relatively small impact of the credit supply shock from the financial crisis on R&D investment and the mitigation of the negative impacts by cash holdings after the onset of the financial crisis, whereas the data show decreasing R&D investment and sales for the whole period. Based on the data and the estimation, I find that firms were able to lessen the pressure from diminishing market demand before the crisis using external finance, but they had to use internal financial sources after the crisis smooth R&D investment.     

The impact of cross‐ownership on the reaction of corporate investment and financing constraints: A panel threshold model

This paper studies whether or not investment decisions are financially constrained in a cross‐ownership system of Taiwan. Different from the financial structure in the USA, subsidiaries in Taiwan are allowed to buy stocks of the parent companies. Hence, the conventional debt‐to‐equity ratio is inappropriate to divide firms into high and low‐debt firms. Instead, a new threshold variable?–?the adjusted debt–equity ratio (ADE)?–?is employed to divide the sample into high‐debt firms and low‐debt firms. A panel of 115 Taiwan‐listed firms for the period 1991–1997 is used. Evidence supports the cash flow hypothesis and ADE has a notable significant influence on the financial constraints.     

Plastic Money Diffusion and Usage: An Empirical Analysis on Italian Households

This paper tries to contribute to the empirical literature on the European consumers’ plastic money payment habits, using the Bank of Italy data over the 1993–2008 period. In line with other evidence on this topic, mainly focused on the US economy, we find that age, education, non‐durable consumptions, regional variation and income are strong predictors of plastic money possession and use in Italy. We also find that households with a higher indebtedness level have a higher propensity to hold credit cards. Furthermore, we find that technological improvements, observed in the last 15 years, do not significantly affect the marginal probabilities to hold and use plastic money conditioned to the main socio‐demographic factors.     

Cash-on-hand and demand for credit

Subprime consumers often use small-dollar credit products, such as payday loans, to meet short-term financial needs over pay cycles. However, relatively little is known about the income sensitivity of demand for credit in this market. This paper provides a causal estimate of the effect of tax rebates on the demand for small-dollar credit, using a unique proprietary loan-level dataset. Identification relies on variation in state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) generosity for areas within the same commuting zones that span state borders. The results show that a $100 increase in EITC benefits leads to an 8.3% reduction in the number of loan applications and a 6.6% reduction in the number of borrowers. This could translate into sizable reductions in loan volume and savings in financial charges. More broadly, the results suggest that public programs with income benefits could help recipients with consumption smoothing in the presence of credit market frictions.     

NONPRICE COMPETITION IN THE TURKISH CREDIT CARD MARKET

Attempts to explain high and sticky credit card rates have given rise to a vast literature on credit card markets. This article endeavors to explain the rates in the Turkish market using measures of nonprice competition. In this market, issuers compete monopolistically by differentiating their credit card products. The fact that consumers perceive credit cards and all other banking services as a bundle allows banks to also employ bank level characteristics to differentiate their credit cards. Thus, the features and service quality of banks are expected to affect credit card rates. Panel data estimations also control for various costs associated with credit card lending. The results show that nonprice competition variables have significant and robust effects on credit card rates. (JEL G21, G28, O16)     

SAVINGS AND PERSONAL DISCOUNT RATES IN A MATCHED SAVINGS PROGRAM FOR LOW‐INCOME FAMILIES

The ability to save for future needs is critical to family well‐being and is especially challenging for low‐income families with little extra income and limited access to institutional structures like employment‐based retirement funds or low cost savings mechanisms. Many nonprofits and governments have created new savings vehicles to fill this void. The ability of families to succeed in these programs may depend on their personal discount rates (time preferences). In this paper, we use survey data from a matched savings program and factor analysis to characterize family time preferences in order to predict their influence on savings levels. We find that a single latent factor describing the level of discount rates (rather than other dimensions of time or amount inconsistency) best describes family differences and is significantly related to the ability of families to save within the program. (JEL D91, I30)     

SOME NEW EVIDENCE ON COMPETITION IN PAYDAY LENDING MARKETS

A critical question in the policy debate about payday lending is whether other financial institutions can plausibly provide attractive and lower‐priced substitutes for standard payday loans. I present several new pieces of evidence addressing the question, focusing on whether credit unions, which are often held as the strongest potential competitors to payday lenders, do (or might) viably compete in the payday loan market. National payday loan offerings by credit unions show that very few credit unions currently offer payday loans. Credit union industry reports suggest that those credit unions offering such loans seem unwilling or unable to undercut substantially the prevailing prices set by payday lenders. Those industry reports also reveal that lower‐priced credit union loans generally ration riskier borrowers out of the market by imposing greater restrictions on approval and repayment; risk‐adjusted prices for credit union payday loans may not be lower at all. Survey evidence suggests that most current payday borrowers prefer higher‐priced but less restrictive standard payday loans to lower‐priced but more restrictive alternatives offered by credit unions. The combined demand‐ and supply‐side evidence suggests that one should not expect credit unions (or by extension banks) to offer lower‐priced, higher‐quality alternatives for consumers who currently use payday loans. (JEL G2, L0, L5)     

When expectations become aspirations: reference-dependent preferences and liquidity constraints

A large body of literature suggests that consumers derive utility from gains and losses relative to a reference point. This paper shows that such reference dependence can affect savings in opposite directions depending on whether people face liquidity constraints. Existing models for wealth and intertemporal choice predict that reference dependence reduces savings, but these models abstract from liquidity constraints. Introducing a liquidity constraint, I find that reference dependence can increase optimal savings for people without access to credit. Ex post, after reference points have been formed, liquidity constraints force consumers to take part of an income loss in early periods, inducing those who are reference dependent to concentrate the full loss in early periods and save in order to eliminate future losses. Further, anticipating a liquidity constraint raises the expected level of future consumption and thus the expectations-based reference point for future periods, creating an ex-ante savings motive. These findings underscore that it is important to account for financial market imperfections when applying or testing reference-dependent models in low-income settings, and potentially explain heterogeneity in how much the poor save when facing binding liquidity constraints.     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)     

Credit card cash‐out as informal financing: Evidence from China

Using a proprietary account‐level database from a commercial bank in China, we document that credit card holders can ease their credit constraints through the practice of cash‐out based on bogus transactions using credit cards. We find that such behaviour might be beneficial to both cardholders and banks. First, we find that a 1% increase in the cumulative number of credit card cash‐out transactions lowers the probability of default by 9.59%. Second, for private businesses, a 1% increase in the number of abnormal cash‐out transactions lowers overdue risk by 13.45%. Third, by lowering the overdue risk, the card‐issuing bank earns a larger profit. Our results are consistent with the notion that unconventional credit card cash‐out can mitigate the extent of capital misallocation in emerging markets.     

THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE SHOCK ON HETEROGENEOUS CREDIT CONSTRAINED FIRMS

ABSTRACT 1 : The paper analyzes how rising food and energy prices affect heterogeneous firm access to inputs and production under credit market imperfections. We estimate a firm credit constraint equation using a unique firm level panel data and find that, on average, small individual firms (IF) are more credit constrained than large corporate firms (CF). Using the estimated parameters, we simulate the effect of the recent food price shock on the world markets. Our results suggest that in the presence of credit market imperfections, the less credit constrained CF benefit relatively more from food price increase than IF, as they are able to expand their production more flexibly. These findings have important policy implications for countries with significant market imperfections. In the case of the food price shock, not only consumers but also producers, which on average are more credit constrained than producers in developed countries, may lose their market shares and hence their income in the long run.     

Financial Innovation,Deposit Deregulation,and the US M1-GNP Link

This paper considers the effect of financial liberalization on aggregate consumption, with a special focus on Taiwan, which has sustained a high savings rate and a rapid rate of economic growth under financial dualism, but has undertaken financial liberalization since the 1980s, leading to an expansion of the formal financial sector. The paper finds that, because of an active informal financial sector, consumers in Taiwan are less credit constrained than in other developing countries. However, the expansion of the formal financial sector has contributed to some relaxation of consumer credit constraints and thereby changes in the income and interest elasticities of consumption. It also has brought about a higher consumption growth rate, offsetting at least partially the positive growth effect of financial liberalization, which helps improve the efficiency in finanacial intermediation.     

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND PERFORMANCE IN BULGARIA: THE ROLE OF INCOME AMONG THE POOR AND RICH

Where credit markers are incomplete, households must finance educational investments out of past savings or current earnings. Poor households, with low savings and low current income, may accordingly be highly constrained in their educational choices, whereas richer households are not. The commonly used log-expenditures specification of the relationship of income to school enrollment may therefore be imprecise. Using data from the 1995 Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, this analysis shows that the roughly 50% of Bulgarian households with expenditures per adult-equivalent of less than 5,000 Leva (1995 prices) are financially constrained in their educational choices, while richer households are not.     

FAMILY FIRMS,BANK RELATIONSHIPS,AND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS: A COMPREHENSIVE SCORE CARD

We examine the effect of financial constraints on firm investment and cash flow. We combine data from the Spanish Mercantile Registry and the Bank of Spain Credit Registry to classify firms according to whether they are family‐owned, not family‐owned, or belong to a family‐linked network of firms and according to their number of banking relations (with none, one, or several banks). Our empirical strategy is structural, based on a dynamic model solved numerically to generate the joint distribution of firm capital (size), investment, and cash flow, both in cross sections and in panel data. We consider three alternative financial settings: saving only, borrowing and lending, and moral hazard constrained state‐contingent credit. We estimate each setting via maximum likelihood and compare across these financial regimes. Based on the estimated financial regime, we show that family firms, especially those belonging to networks based on ownership, are associated with a more flexible market or contract environment and are less financially constrained than nonfamily firms. This result survives stratifications of family and nonfamily firms by bank status, region, industry, and time period. Family firms are better able to allocate funds and smooth investment across states of the world and over time, arguably done informally or using the cash flow generated at the level of the network. We also validate our structural approach by demonstrating that it performs well in traditional categories, by stratifying firms by size and age, and find that smaller and younger firms are more constrained than larger and older firms.     

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF VALUING HEALTH INSURANCE ON LEVELS AND TRENDS IN INEQUALITY AND HOW THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT OF 2010 COULD AFFECT THEM

A substantial part of the U.S. inequality literature focuses on yearly levels and trends in pre‐tax, post‐transfer cash income and its distribution over time and finds that median income appears to be stagnating, with income growth primarily coming at higher income levels. When we use data from the Current Population Survey for 1995–2008 and add the value of employer‐ and government‐provided health insurance coverage, not only does it increase the upward trend in the level of resources controlled by Americans, but also reduces the level of inequality in these resources and its upward trend. We then provide a highly stylized example of this broader income measure's value in capturing the impact of two key provisions of the Affordable Care Act of 2010—an expansion in Medicaid and the provision of subsidies to lower‐income families for purchasing private coverage on state‐run exchanges. Even though these incremental expansions build on existing systems of government‐provided health insurance, we find that the vast majority of the benefits would still accrue to the bottom three deciles of the income distribution when we include the value of employer‐ and government‐provided health insurance in our expanded yearly income measure. (JEL D31, H51, I14)     

Monetary Policy,Financial Frictions,and Heterogeneous R&D Firms in an Endogenous Growth Model*

Motivated by empirical facts, I construct an endogenous growth model in which heterogeneous research and development (R&D) firms are financially constrained and use cash to finance R&D investments. I also examine the optimal monetary policy. The effects of financial constraint crucially depend on whether R&D firms are homogeneous or heterogeneous regarding R&D productivity. If R&D firms are homogeneous, then the zero nominal interest rate (i.e., the Friedman rule) is always optimal under severe financial constraint. Heterogeneity in R&D productivity leads to the opposite result. With heterogeneity, severe financial constraint makes the strictly positive nominal interest rate welfare-improving under a plausible condition.     

EASY MONEY OR HARD TIMES? HEALTH AND 401(k) LOANS

Rising health care costs and declining personal savings rates are nearly synonymous with household medical debt. For some, defined contribution (DC) retirement savings plans provide a ready source of funds to meet these medical debts. We examine whether health status and health insurance coverage predict the likelihood of having a DC loan using data from the Federal Reserve's triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) from 1989 to 2007. We find that poor health raises the likelihood that a household will borrow from their DC plans, even controlling for other forms of debt, access to credit, and whether households are covered by health insurance. Our estimates of the amount of the DC loan, taking selection effects into account, indicate that DC loan amounts are also influenced by health status; those with poor health borrow more from their DC plans. Apart from health status, once a household decides to borrow from their retirement funds, race and education also influence how much to borrow. We argue that public policy can improve the long‐term financial retirement security of households by offering more opportunities to save for medical emergencies, while cautiously maintaining the opportunity to borrow from DC plans. (JEL D12, D14, D91)     

Shaken or Stirred? Financial Deregulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Norway

Is there a credit channel for monetary policy? Has the deregulation of financial markets had any temporary or permanent effects on the monetary transmission mechanism? We present empirical evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a dynamic system of money, credit, real income and inflation. We find that the deregulation process has not caused any permanent shifts in the long‐run demand functions. Within a small simultaneous dynamic model, there is some evidence for the credit view of the monetary transmission mechanism, as both credit and money exhibit strong and stable effects on aggregate demand. JEL classification: E50; E44; C51