基于动态视角的中国劳动力供给决策实证分析--以杭州出租车司机为例

生命周期劳动供给理论预测工人的劳动供给对短期工资波动有正向的反应，然而不少研究发现国外出租车司机劳动供给弹性是负的。国内出租车司机的情况如何呢？文章用杭州出租车GPS 行程数据分析了司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给。为解决由测量误差和同事效应产生的内生性问题，我们用司机当天遇到的长途载客次数作为其每小时工资的工具变量，进而探讨每小时工资对司机劳动供给时间的影响。我们发现，杭州出租车司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给工资弹性均显著为正，这说明政府增加司机每公里燃油补贴等政策的确能激励司机增加劳动供给。另外，这也说明放松出租车市场的价格管制能使司机更好地根据市场需求优化自己的工作决策。     

DETERMINATION OF PARTICIPATION DECISION, HIRING DECISION, AND WAGES IN A DOUBLE SELECTION FRAMEWORK: MALE-FEMALE WAGE DIFFERENTIALS IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET REVISITED

The magnitude of the male-female wage differential is known to be highly sensitive to the specification of the wage equations used. An important source of misspecification is the failure to correct the sample selection bias that results from estimating the wage equation obtained through two sequential decisions: the worker's decision to participate in the labor market and the employer's decision to hire. Estimation of the wage equation ignoring this double selection process leads to biased estimates, and consequently the resulting male-female wage differentials are likely to be misleading. Following a double selection approach and using a sample from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this article examines the determinants of not only the wage equation but also the worker's participation and the employer's hiring decisions in both male and female samples. The study further demonstrates that the unexplained male-female wage differential remains underestimated when the roles of both selection decisions are ignored in the estimation of wage equations.     

Income prospects and job mobility: The case of Sweden

The study has two interrelated objectives. The first one is to explore the role of expected wage gains for mobility decisions, the second to investigate the effects of mobility on subsequent earnings. The econometric analysis takes the interdependence between wages and mobility into account; wages are affected by mobility and mobility decisions respond to alternative prospective wages. The results show, among other things, that job movers in Sweden received an increase in real wage growth rates per year of 4 percent compared to a situation where they had not moved during the period 1968–1974. We also find some evidence that self-selection in the labor market is efficiency improving; the excess wage growth from job changing is higher for movers than for measurably similar stayers.     

Who values the family‐friendly aspects of a job? Evidence from the Japanese labour market

Women with family responsibilities such as child‐rearing generally prefer jobs with flexible working conditions. According to the theory of compensating wage differentials, women working in such family‐friendly jobs are paid less than those working in family‐unfriendly jobs. The present paper investigates whose wages are more greatly affected by the family‐(un)friendly aspects of their jobs. Based on a longitudinal survey of Japanese women, we found that among several family‐(un)friendly attributes of a job, only commuting time requires a wage premium, and most of the premium is associated with job changes made by part‐time‐working married women.     

The role of family decision in internal migration: the case of India

This paper analyzes the effects of family decisions and individual decisions on rural-urban migration in India under 2 different rural institutions--family farm and wage labor systems. An analytical framework for explaining family migration decisions reveals that whenever a member of the extended family migrates, he gives up his share in the produce of the family farm. When this happens, the number of adult members on the farm goes down and the total product is affected. 3 case studies of Indian villages are analyzed for this study. 2 empirical relations are examined: 1) if individual migration decisions are predominant, and 2) if family decisions are important in determining the overall flow of migration. Relationships between migration decisions and other variables, such as: 1) number of males in urban areas; 2) urban wages; 3) daily wage rate; 4) average agricultural income; 5) railway distance between rural and urban areas; 6) size of the labor market in destination region; 7) probability that a migrant arriving in an urban area will find a job; and 8) comsumption expenditure, in urban areas estimated by working class consumer price index, are determined. Results show that: 1) the market determined wage variable does not play a very significant role in migration decisions; 2) distance is one of the most important variables in analyzing migration; and 3) the aggregate flow of migration is affected if migration decisions are predominantly family decisions. These findings have relevant policy implications for less developed countries (LDCs), especially because large flows of rural-urban migration in recent years have forced governments to adopt policies for controlling the flows to reduce the burden of unemployment in the urban areas. Government policies affecting rural institutions will have an impact on migration flow; those that lead to a reduction of uncertainty in agriculture will affect average per-capita consumption levels in family farms and hence influence the flow of migration.     

Educational mismatch and promotions to managerial positions: a test of the career mobility theory

Career mobility theory suggests that given a certain occupation, schooling improves upward mobility in terms of promotion and wage growth. We are the first to test the implications of this theory for over- and undereducation by means of direct information about promotions to managerial positions. Using German administrative data entailing an employer-reported – and hence objective – measure of educational requirements, we show that overeducated workers are indeed more likely to be promoted and that this career mobility advantage is more pronounced in the early stages of their working lives. By contrast, undereducated workers are less likely to be promoted to managerial positions. Moreover, in terms of wage growth, while overeducated workers benefit more, undereducated workers benefit less from promotions than their well-matched educational peers. Altogether, these findings strongly support the career mobility theory. Furthermore, by differentiating between internal and external promotions, we provide evidence that promotions are more likely for overeducated workers within the establishment, whereas the opposite applies for undereducated workers. This finding indicates the relevance of both over- and undereducation as signals of true ability to other employers.     

Asynchronized multiperiod commitments and cycles

We consider a game where agents can synchronize or stagger their decisions. We compare the outcomes of both timing patterns, and show that spillovers and strategic interactions are crucial for such a comparison. A typology used in industrial organization, distinguishing four cases (‘Fat-Cat’, ‘Top Dog’, Lean and Hungry’, ‘Puppy Dog’), allows us to compare the actions taken in the staggered variant and in the synchronized one. The staggered variant exhibits cycles and players are both better-off when there are strategic complementarities between them. A timing game is then set-up so as to endogenize the choice between the two variants we study.Two examples are developed: (i) Bertrand competition and (ii) a wage setting game when there are two monopoly unions in two interrelated firms. We show that the staggering of price decisions generates counter-cyclical mark-ups in the first example, and the staggering of wage decisions generates cycling output in the industry in the second example.     

Implications of Economic Interdependence for Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions

This paper shows how economic interdependence affects the indexation decisions of atomistic wage setters in an environment in which monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances before making their policy choices. If stochastic disturbances are common across countries, interdependence has no effect on equilibrium indexation choices in identical countries. However, if disturbances are country specific, numerical simulations show that interdependence is likely to reduce equilibrium indexation choices relative to a small open economy. We also show that indexation choices may be either strategic complements or strategic substitutes, but that strategic complementarity becomes more likely as the degree of interdependence rises.     

Training,migration, and regional income disparities

"It is assumed that there are two regions, that production requires both skilled and unskilled labour, and that one region is innately more productive than the other. Workers, who differ in their migration or training costs, make individually rational decisions. In equilibrium the ratio of skilled workers to unskilled workers is always higher in the more productive region. Average incomes differ between regions because regional differences in wage rates are reinforced by regional differences in the structure of employment. The model is also used to analyse the effects of policies intended to equalize the distribution of income."     

Wages and Wage-Bargaining Institutions in the EMU – A Survey of the Issues

The paper distinguishes between the impact of the EMU on nominal wage flexibility and on equilibrium real wage and unemployment levels. A perceived need to increase nominal wage flexibility as a substitute for domestic monetary policy and a tendency to less real wage moderation in the EMU are likely to promote informal bargaining coordination and social pacts in the medium run. But such coordination is not likely to be sustainable in the long run, as it conflicts with other forces working in the direction of decentralization and deunionization. This could lead to more government intervention in wage setting during a transitional period. Although monetary unification will strengthen the incentives for higher-level transnational coordination of wage bargaining, such a development is improbable in view of the coordination costs involved. If transnational coordination develops, it is most likely to occur within multinational firms.     

Gender,Low-Paid Status,and Time Poverty in Urban China

ABSTRACT

Using synthetic data from the 2008 China Time Use Survey (CTUS) and the 2008 China Household Income Project (CHIP), this study estimates time-poverty rates and compares the profiles of time-poor men and women workers in urban China. In line with previous research, time poverty is defined as a lack of enough time for rest and leisure. Three time-poverty measures are adopted. By all three measures, women paid workers and low-paid workers account for a disproportionate share of the time poor. Regression analysis further shows that, other things being equal, workers who are women, low-paid, married, and who live with children or the elderly in counties with higher overtime rates and lower minimum wage standards are more likely to be time poor. Simulations indicate that enforcing working time regulations and raising minimum wage standards could be effective for reducing time poverty.     

An alternative measure of wage flexibility

Wage flexibility is usually defined as the responsiveness of wages to market disequilibrium. But market disequilibrium can be defined in different ways. One can accept a non-Walrasian definition of equilibrium, the market being in equilibrium when agents have no incentive to change their decisions, even if a change of wages can improve their position. To study the behavior of wages as an equilibrating variable, it is appropriate to consider Walrasian demand and supply functions, in which wages are allowed to move in each period in a direction to restore equilibrium between Walrasian demand and supply, even when agents experience restrictions and take notice of these restrictions when making decisions. The degree of wage flexibility is most often measured as the amount of equilibrating change that took place in a certain period. In most wage equations wage flexibility is measured by the coefficient of the unemployment variable, which links the equilibrating change in the wage variable to the degree of market disequilibrium. The equalization of market disequilibrium with unemployment poses some problems. The authors wish to thank Freddy Heylen of the University of Gent for helpful comments.     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

Excess supply equilibria

This paper addresses a fundamental problem in economic theory: How can there be equilibria of the economic system where some commodity is in excess supply, yet that commodity's relative price shows no tendency to fall? Of course, the principal example of such a phenomenon is an economy experiencing a prolonged period of involuntary unemployment of the labor force during which there is no significant change in the real wage.In the following pages, I shall describe a two-commodity, general equilibrium model that has a continuum of unemployment equilibria, one for any given unemployment rate. The important feature of this model is that workers establish their wage rates in an attempt to maximize expected utility. The information upon which these wage setting decisions are based is provided by actual labor market transactions.Despite the voluntary nature of the wage setting decision, I shall argue that each equilibrium of this economy exhibits involuntary unemployment in the Keynesian sense. For there will always be another equilibrium with a lower real wage, a higher level of employment, and at which (at least when workers are risk neutral) each worker achieves a higher level of expected utility.     

性别工资差异中的企业效应

现有对性别工资差异的研究大多是基于个人样本的分析而忽略了企业的作用。本文运用企业和工人匹配的调查数据研究性别工资差异中的企业效应。研究发现,在工资决定方程中加入企业效应后工人的教育回报显著下降,且在性别工资差异的分解中加入企业效应后禀赋效应和价格效应所占的比例也显著下降,企业在性别工资差异中有着非常重要的作用。进一步研究发现,企业的外部市场环境和内部制度特征是决定企业性别工资差异程度的重要因素,市场竞争激烈的企业、经常采用计件工资制的企业以及内部职工收入差距较大的企业性别工资差异较大,小规模企业和私有产权比重较大的企业也呈现较大的性别工资差异,但工人的谈判能力有缩小性别工资差异的作用。     

Decreasing fertility,economic growth and the intergenerational wage gap

Persistent low fertility rates lead to lower population growth rates and eventually also to decreasing population sizes in most industrialized countries. There are fears that this demographic development is associated with declines in per capita GDP and possibly also increasing inequality of the wage distribution. We investigate whether this is true in the context of neoclassical growth models, augmented with endogenous fertility decisions and endogenous educational decisions. Furthermore we allow for imperfect substitutability across workers of different age in the production process and learning by doing effects as well as human capital depreciation. In particular, we assess the intergenerational wage redistribution effects which follow after a demographic change to persistent low fertility rates.     

Market wages,reservation wages,and retirement decisions

The paper is an empirical cross-section study of the retirement decisions of American white men between the ages of 58 and 67, predicated on the theoretical notion that an individual retires when his reservation wage exceeds his market wage. Reservation wages are derived from an explicit utility function in which the most critical taste parameter is assumed to vary both systematically and randomly across individuals. Market wages are derived from a standard wage equation adjusted to the special circumstances of older workers. The two equations are estimated jointly by maximum likelihood, which takes into account the potential selectivity bias inherent in the model (low-wage individuals tend to retire and cease reporting their market wage). The model is reasonably successful in predicting retirement decisions, and casts serious doubt on previous claims that the social security system induces many workers to retire earlier than they otherwise would. The normal effects of aging (on both market and reservation wages) and the incentives set up by private pension plans are estimated to be major causes of retirement.     

Fertility Decisions and Gender Differences in Labor Turnover, Employment, and Wages

A striking observation of the U.S. and other labor markets is the weak position of women in terms of job attachment, employment, and earnings relative to men. We develop a model of fertility and labor market decisions to study the impact of fertility on gender differences in labor turnover, employment, and wages. In our framework, individuals search for jobs and accumulate general (experience) and specific (tenure) human capital when they work. They can also increase their wage by moving to a job of higher quality. Labor market decisions (e.g., job acceptance and job mobility) may differ across genders: females that give birth may decide to interrupt their labor market attachment in order to enjoy the value of staying at home with their children. The model economy is successfully calibrated to match aggregate statistics in terms of fertility, employment, and wages. We find that fertility decisions generate important gender differences in turnover rates, with long lasting effects in employment and wages. These differences in labor turnover account for almost all the U.S. gender wage gap that is attributed to labor market experience by Blau and Kahn (2000, Journal of Labor Economics15(1), 1–42). The model also implies a very small role of tenure capital in accounting for wage differences between males and females (gender gap), and between females with and without children (family gap). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J13, J21, J31.     

Business Civilization in Decline

Technological change is modeled as endogenous in the sense that it is affected by economic, behavioral, and institutional variables. Technological change is especially affected by changes in relative input prices and their level, of which the price of labor is particularly important. Input prices are affected by institutional variables. Such prices also impact on the firm's efficiency, which in turn affects growth rates as well as the rate of technical change. As relative factor prices or their level increase, firms are induced to innovate or adopt extant technology to remain competitive or to maintain current profit rates. High wage firms can be expected to engage in such induced technological change, leading the growth process thereby yielding lower unit costs and increasing the level of material welfare. Relatively low wage economies can be locked into a state of economic inefficiency and laggard technological progress, especially in the long run.     

Assessing the Possible Antipoverty Effects of Recent Rises in Age‐Specific Minimum Wages in New Zealand

Real minimum wages increased by nearly 33 percent for adults and 123 percent for teenagers in New Zealand between 1999 and 2008. Where fewer than 2 percent of workers were being paid a minimum wage at the outset of this sample period, more than 8 percent of adult workers and 60 percent of teenage workers were receiving hourly earnings close to the minimum wage by the end of this period. These policy changes provide a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the minimum wage on poverty. Although minimum wage workers are more likely to live in the poorest households, they are relatively widely dispersed throughout the income distribution. This is particularly true of teenage minimum wage workers. Furthermore, low‐income households often do not contain any working members. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in minimum wages, even without a loss in employment or hours of work, would lower the relative poverty rate by less than one‐tenth of a percentage point.