小流域生态补偿标准测算——基于生态服务功能价值法

小流域生态补偿是解决保护生态环境和发展经济之间矛盾的重要经济手段。文章以安顺市西秀区长田小流域为例,利用生态服务功能价值法对小流域生态系统生态服务功能价值进行了匡算:长田小流域生态服务功能价值为91 358.60万元,生态补偿总金额为1 162.45万元,其中,农田系统补偿额为131.94万元,森林系统补偿额为753.36万元,水域系统补偿额为25.60万元,果木林系统补偿额为251.55万元。在生态系统服务功能价值之上,对可受补偿和不可受补偿的生态系统服务功能进行区分,并将不同生态系统所能提供可受补偿生态功能的当量因子表示出来,使得生态补偿额的确定具有科学性、更加准确,进而为小流域生态补偿标准的确定提供依据。     

跨流域调水水源地生态补偿测算与分配研究——以南水北调中线河南水源区为例

生态补偿量的确定和补偿的分配是生态补偿机制建立的重点和难点。从生态服务价值和生态建设成本出发,测算了南水北调中线河南水源区生态建设工程的外部生态补偿,探讨了受水区生态补偿分摊方案和水源区生态补偿分配方案和分配原则,为跨流域调水生态补偿提供参考。以生态服务价值为基础,结合实际状况进行适当修正,根据土地利用类型的改变,评估得到水土保持林建设工程实施后每年所增加的生态系统服务价值为3.54×105万元,引入生态价值发展阶段系数调整后的结果为1.12×105万元。根据不同区域生态系统服务功能受益不同,进行再次修正,可知水源地生态工程使水源地以外地区增加生态服务价值3.61×104万元。在考虑生态建设成本后,测算出水源地每年应得到外部生态补偿4.145×104万元。在此基础上,以受水区用水比例和经济发展水平为权重,探讨了受水区生态补偿分摊方案,以各生态建设区对生态服务价值的贡献比例为标准,探讨了水源区的生态补偿分配方案和分配原则。     

铜陵市生态系统服务功能价值评估与调整

本文以生态服务价值定量评价的现有成果为手段,对铜陵市的生态系统服务功能价值进行评估。同时结合铜陵的经济社会发展状况,利用生态价值系数对评估的结果进行调整。结果显示,铜陵市2003年的生态系统服务功能的价值为643736万元,为当年GDP的62%;经生态价值系数调整后的生态系统服务功能的价值为275 146万元,为GDP的21%。     

我国流域水资源生态补偿标准量化研究——以湖南湘江流域为例

我国流域上游地区为保护水资源生态环境,实施严格的源头控制,并由此在一定程度上影响了当地经济发展,因此,亟待建立和完善生态补偿机制。流域生态补偿是以水资源作为流域生态系统的重要控制因素和补偿载体,通过水资源能有效转移上下游生态价值与经济价值。本文以湘江流域为例,从生态建设与保护成本分析法和生态系统服务价值法两种方法出发,对湘江流域生态补偿标准进行量化,得出制定科学的流域生态补偿标准应凸显水资源价值,依据地区差异实行差异性补偿的结论。     

全流域生态补偿标准设计依据和横向补偿模式

为全流域生态补偿标准的设计依据和横向补偿模式提出了理论框架和实践指导.总结出目前我国流域生态补偿理论与实践中存在的五个突出问题.针对上述问题,提出两点解决思路:(1)在评估上游的生态系统建设和保护成本和下游的生态系统损失的基础上确立生态补偿标准;分析了将流域生态系统服务价值的评估值作为生态补偿依据的不合理性;分析了用污染物削减成本或生态修复成本代替生态损失的不恰当的逻辑;论述了补偿标准确定过程中协商和博弈的重要性. (2)构建以基于市场的横向补偿为主、财政纵向转移支付为辅的新型动态复合生态补偿模式.提出污染物转移削减这一合作治污途径,并采用污染物转移削减支付(一种横向补偿形式)进行生态补偿.     

水能资源开发生态补偿的测算方法与标准探讨

文章将河流生态系统分成16种服务功能,探讨了水能资源开发对生态环境影响的价值量测算的原理和方法,接着分析了生态补偿的原理和测算方法,讨论了确定生态补偿标准的原则和类型,最后以福建省建瓯市北津水电项目为例,测算该项目对生态环境的影响的价值量,探讨了生态补偿的标准.研究发现,该项目具有正的外部性,正效益为12 344.55万元,负效益为-893.87万元,总的净效益在11 450.68万元,其中发电收益为8 280万元,生态补偿数额范围在生态损失价值的1～7.25倍之间.     

基于NPP数据的河南省淮河流域生态经济协调性分析

植被净初级生产力(NPP)是评价生态系统服务功能的重要指标。基于MODIS17A3数据分析河南省淮河流域NPP时空演变特征,顾及区域主体功能类型特征构建生态经济协调度模型,对研究区生态经济协调关系进行评估。结果表明:(1)2001—2010年,研究区NPP均值为395g·m-2·a-1,呈中部高、南北低的特点;10年间NPP总体呈增加趋势,年均增长率为3.48%。(2)流域生态价值呈"倒U型"曲线波动变化,2008年达到最高值896.08亿元,最低值为2001年的675.78亿元,单位面积生态价值为96.8万元/km2。(3)流域GDP呈线性增长,人均GDP高值区集聚在以郑州为中心的中原城市群核心区,形成了流域经济发展的热点区域;冷点区域主要分布在京广线以西的黄淮平原农区,经济发展水平较低且集聚分布。(4)流域生态经济协调度先降后升,呈"U型"曲线变化。协调发展区域沿陇海、京广线分布,主要集中在中原城市群地区;弱协调发展区域沿京广、陇海线分布在协调发展区域的外围及桐柏、大别山区;失调发展区域分布在京广线以东,主要是黄淮农区的县市,长期处于失调发展状态。最后,提出了构建淮河流域的生态补偿机制和耕地保护补偿机制,以解决主体功能定位对流域经济和居民福祉的影响。     

江河源头水源涵养生态功能区生态补偿机制研究——以江西东江源区为例

流域下游地区对上游地区予以适当经济补偿已经成为我国解决区域之间社会经济失衡、保护流域水资源生态安全问题的重要手段和迫切需要。在简要回顾国内外流域生态补偿机制理论研究和实践模式的基础上,以江西东江源国家级水源涵养功能生态保护区自然生态环境条件和社会经济发展现状为背景,分析了在江河源头区域实施生态补偿的现实必要性及其政策法律依据;根据"受益者补偿"的原则,确定了东江源生态补偿主体和受体;运用"成本—效益分析法"和"工业发展机会成本法"测算出生态补偿标准总额为51 335.2万元;以水量、水质和用水效益三个指标为基础,建立流域环境保护与生态建设成本分担模型并测算出流域下游地区广东省环境保护与生态建设成本年分担份额为10 861.33万元,就东江源区域实施生态补偿应当遵循的原则和途径进行了设计。     

基于水足迹的广西西江经济带生态补偿测算研究

近年来,水流域生态补偿成为社会各界持续关注的热点。流域生态环境问题不仅关系到人地和谐发展,同时还涉及解决上下游区际公平发展的问题和代际公平问题。以区域经济发展公平为视角,生态服务服务价值供给方在剔除自身消费后的生态服务剩余价值理应获得生态补偿。采用当量因子法对广西西江经济带的生态系统服务价值进行估算,利用水足迹估算出区域自身消费的生态系统服务价值,最后得出广西西江经济带存在生态价值溢出,并对当地生态补偿提出政策建议。     

青海湖流域生态系统服务功能与价值评估

在中国生态系统服务价值基准单价的基础上,通过生物量等因子的订正,构建了青海湖流域的生态服务功能单价表,并在此基础上对青海湖流域的生态服务价值进行了评价。结果显示:青海湖流域2007年的生态系统服务功能总价值为340.88×108元。生态服务价值从大到小为:水体>草地>湿地>灌丛>农田>荒漠,其中,废物处理功能贡献最大,原材料生产功能贡献最小。研究对青海湖流域生态环境安全和区域可持续发展具有重要的理论指导和现实意义。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.