The effect of affiliated analysts on stock recommendations: Evidence from share pledges in China

We use the share pledge context in China to examine how affiliated analysts whose securities companies are pledgees of share pledge firms issue stock recommendations on these listed firms. We find that their recommendations are more optimistic than those of non-affiliated analysts, and they are more likely to issue Buy and Add recommendations, suggesting that they issue optimistic rating reports for share pledge firms due to their conflicts of interest. We also find a dynamic adjustment in the stock recommendation behavior of these analysts, and their probability after issuing optimistic stock recommendations is significantly reduced before and after the years that the affiliation relationship between them and share pledge firms both began and ended. These affiliated analysts continue to issue optimistic stock recommendations after visiting the share pledge firms if they work in the same location as the firms, or if they are star analysts among New Fortune’s “top five analysts,” and when the information transparency of the share pledge firms is higher. In addition, the optimistic stock recommendation behavior of affiliated analysts is more significant in our sample of firms with high share pledge ratios and downward stock price pressure. The earnings forecast quality of affiliated analysts is also found to be lower, and they are less inclined to downgrade stock recommendations for these share pledge firms. Buy recommendations issued by both non-affiliated and affiliated analysts can bring cumulative excess returns in the short event window, but those issued by affiliated analysts are significantly negative in the long-term event window, and significantly lower than those issued by non-affiliated analysts. Overall, our study shows that affiliated analysts issue optimistic rating reports on share pledge firms due to conflicts of interest, which leads to decision-making bias in investors and thus decreases the stock price crash risk of the firms. Our findings further reveal the economic consequences of share pledging and extend our understanding of the behavior of analysts in a conflict of interest situation from the share pledge perspective.     

Is pledge risk matched between pledgees and pledgers in China’s share pledge market?

Based on a sample of share pledging by the controlling shareholders of A-share listed firms, we investigate whether pledge risk is matched between pledgees and pledgers in China’s share pledge market. The results show that, compared with broker pledgees, commercial bank pledgees accept pledged stocks with lower market risk and the corresponding listed firms are at lower risk, have higher levels of information transparency and are more likely to be state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We also find that commercial bank pledgees do not ease the risk requirement of pledged stocks for pledgers of SOEs. Further, we document that commercial bank pledgees face lower margin call risks than broker pledgees. After securities companies were authorized to compete in the share pledge market in 2013, the pledge risk faced by commercial bank pledgees further reduced. Our results support that China’s share pledge financing market generally achieves an efficient equilibrium in terms of pledge risk matching between pledgees and pledgers. We recommend that the macro control of share pledge risk be focused on broker pledgees.     

论人身保险单的质押

人身保险单质押是权利质押.目前实践中主要以人身保险单的现金价值权为出质标的,从法律和质权的安全性考量,法律上应当明确人身保险单所表彰的投保人的现金价值权和被保险人、受益人的受益权均可以出质,投保人、被保险人、受益人均可作为出质人,而有关风险由质权人来考量和控制.人身保险单质权的设立和公示为确保交易便捷和安全,应当以登记...     

The impacts of share pledging on firm investment timing and valuation

This paper applies a model in the real options framework to analyze the impacts of controlling shareholder’s share pledging on corporate investment timing and valuation. We find that the optimal investment timing shows an inverted U-shape with the pledge ratio, indicating that share pledging exacerbates firms’ over-investment and worsens firms’ under-investment. Furthermore, share pledging hurts firms’ option value unless active measures are taken to control the pledging risks. The maintenance requirement can keep controlling shareholder from irrational early investments and protect investors from severe wealth losses. In addition, our work can provide testable empirical implications.     

A New Measure of Control-Cash Flow Deviation: Cases in Taiwan

The traditionally defined measure of deviation fails to capture the possibility that controlling owners might pledge their shares for bank loans and with that money from bank loans to amplify their personal leverage in the stock market. In this study we construct a newly defined measure of deviation that includes pledge ratio into the definition. Using a sample of 2777 firm-year observations in the sampling period of 2011–2015, we find that the newly defined measure of deviation is negatively correlated with firm’s performance and are more capable of dictating firm’s performance than the traditionally defined measure. We further find that the newly defined deviation could better contrast the performance measures between normal firms and financially-distressed firms.     

Share pledges,tone of earnings communication conferences,and market reaction: evidence from China

We investigate how share pledging affects firms’ disclosures and influences investors in Chinese stock market. The tone of firm disclosures when there are shares pledged by controlling shareholders is more positive than that of firms without them. Considering tone inflation motivation and ability simultaneously, we find share pledge risk has an inverted U‐shaped relation with tone. Investors react positively to tone in short‐run windows, and firms with controlling shareholders’ pledges have higher stock returns for earnings communication conferences. We identify an inverted U‐shaped link between margin distance of controlling shareholders and stock returns for earnings communication conferences.     

CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting

In this paper, we examine the effect of managerial overconfidence on bank loan spreads. Our theoretical model and empirical results support that firms with highly overconfident CEOs have lower loan spreads and that the reducing effect of these CEOs on the spread is more pronounced when the loan contracts have collateral or covenants. Unlike firms with highly overconfident CEOs, firms with moderately overconfident CEOs do not receive lower loan spreads. We perform various tests to alleviate the concerns about endogeneity, and the results are robust. The results are consistent with the idea that highly overconfident CEOs are more willing to pledge collateral and accept covenants in exchange for a reduction in their loan rate.     

Economic growth potential creating a real put and the resulting valuation of the firm

What do innovative new firms in our dynamic economy do to the value of existing firms? Using Schumpeter’s creative destruction idea, we expand the valuation model to incorporate these dynamics. Our model shows that these dynamics should have a greater effect on smaller firms, those in closer to perfect product market competition and those with less financial market following, as they get less market feedback for warning of new competition. This additional consideration in valuation is named the “real put” as it is an optionagainst value. Simply stated, it is an amount subtracted from a firm’s market value of capitalized earnings, plus any growth potential (that might create destructive competition against other producers) to get its net value. Following Schumpeter, new entrepreneurs and larger firms that mimic existing entrepreneurs are the innovators of new products and services. They create the real put against value in their potential competitors. We empirically test this using Morningstar’s “moat” classification of firms. We find firms with “wider moats” meaning greater product market power have much lower delisting rates that indicate smaller puts against value being exercised. While we are not the first in finance to view Schumpeter’s ideas, this is the first paper to consider its direct effect on valuation.     

Can differences in the background characteristics of the chairperson–CEO vertical dyad reduce management agency costs?—A perspective Based on the internal configuration of the top management team

We test whether differences in the background characteristics of firms’ chairperson and CEO can reduce management agency costs. We find that when the chairperson is older, has a higher level of education, and has more overseas experience than the CEO, the management agency costs will be lower. A series of robustness tests do not change our conclusions. In further analysis, we find that the negative relationship between the two is more significant for SOEs or firms experiencing fierce market competition. Finally, we also find that the chairman-CEO’s vertical dyad background characteristics differences can help to improve firm performance. Our study provides theoretical and practical implications for companies on how to best configure their top management team.     

Financial misreporting and peer firms' operational efficiency

We investigate the impact of financial misreporting on peer firms’ operational efficiency, defined as a firm’s efficiency in converting investments into revenues. We find that, on average, peers’ operational efficiency declines after rival firms misstate their financial performance. However, we also find that the impact of financial misreporting is not homogeneous across peer firms. The negative effect is mainly driven by non‐misstating firms that had high performance. For firms that had lower past performance, the negative effect is significantly weaker, suggesting that the perceived competition induced by misreporting has a more positive effect. In addition, we document that the effect of misreporting is influenced by peer firms’ external financing need, industry leadership status and information environment.     

Product market competition and earnings management: A firm‐level analysis

In this paper, we employ a firm‐level measure of product market competition constructed from the textual analysis of firms’ 10‐K filings to examine the relationship between managers’ perceived competition pressure and earnings management. We find that accounting irregularities and accrual‐based earnings management are positively related to product market competition. This finding is consistent with the notion that competition pressure increases managerial incentives to manage earnings, due to their career concerns. We also find that real earnings management is negatively related to product market competition. This finding suggests that real earnings management involves actions that decrease firms’ competitiveness and thus is costly for firms confronted with high competition pressure.     

Product Market Competition,Managerial Incentives and Firm Valuation

This paper contributes to the very small empirical literature on the effects of competition on managerial incentive schemes. Based on a theoretical model that incorporates both strategic interaction between firms and a principal agent relationship, we analyse the relationship between product market competition, incentive schemes and firm valuation. The model predicts a nonlinear relationship between the intensity of product market competition and the strength of managerial incentives. We test the implications of our model empirically based on a unique and hand‐collected dataset comprising over 600 observations on 200 Swiss firms over the 2002–2005 period. Our results suggest that, consistent with the implications of our model, the relation between product market competition and managerial intensive schemes is convex indicating that above a certain level of intensity in product market competition, the marginal effect of competition on the strength of the incentive schemes increases in the level of competition. Moreover, competition is associated with lower firm values. These results are robust to accounting for a potential endogeneity of managerial incentives and firm value in a simultaneous equations framework.     

Bank Competition and Leverage Adjustments

We test whether bank competition affects firms’ leverage adjustment speeds. Using Chinese data where bank concentration varies across both years and provinces, we find that underlevered firms move to their target leverage faster when bank competition is high. Tests surrounding an exogenous shock to bank competition lead to the same conclusion. We also find that small firms and nonstate‐owned firms exhibit faster leverage adjustments when bank competition is high, which is consistent with the conjecture that bank risk taking increases with competition.     

Institutional investors,controlling shareholders and CEO pay‐performance relationship: evidence from China

Using a large sample of China’s listed firms between 2005 and 2015, we find that domestic mutual funds have a positive effect on the CEO pay‐performance relationship, and this effect becomes stronger when their ownership is higher and closer to the controlling shareholder’s ownership. This effect is stronger in non‐state‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs), firms facing weaker industry competition incentives, and firms located in more developed regions. However, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) do not have such an influence. Overall, our study contends that the effectiveness of institutional investors’ monitoring role is subject to their identity, controlling shareholders and institutional environments.     

Does market power discipline CEO power? An agency perspective

We examine how product market competition (PMC) shapes chief executive officer's (CEO) power. Using various measures to capture both PMC and CEO power, our analyses, which include a quasi‐natural experiment, find evidence that CEOs have less power when the product market is more competitive. Furthermore, the impact of PMC on CEO power is more pronounced for firms with entrenched management, lower CEO ownership, lower analyst coverage, and for firms experiencing good ‘luck’ (windfall performance). Our results suggest that market power can act as a substitute for corporate governance in disciplining CEO power, particularly when prone to agency problems.     

银行业竞争、融资约束与企业创新——中国工业企业的经验证据

本文将1998-2007年中国工业企业数据、专利申请数据与银监会公布的金融许可证数据相匹配,考察银行业竞争影响企业创新的内在机制。结果发现,竞争的加剧通过缓解企业面临的融资约束,从而提升其创新能力。在弱化内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验后,上述结果仍然稳健。进一步研究发现,外部融资依赖度较高的企业,中小、民营企业,以及位于市场化水平高和法治环境好的地区的企业,银行业竞争通过缓解融资约束促进其创新的效应更加明显。此外,本文还发现股份制银行和城商行的竞争能更好地推动企业创新。因此,建立健全多层次、多元化的金融体系,能有效缓解企业创新的融资困境,激发创新活力。     

银行业竞争、创新资源配置和企业创新产出——基于中国工业企业的经验证据

本文利用城市级商业银行分支机构数据,结合中国工业企业数据和企业专利数据,实证分析银行业竞争对中国企业创新产出的影响。研究发现,竞争性的银行业市场结构显著促进了企业创新产出,对非国有企业和中小企业尤为显著。进一步地,本文基于资源配置角度,从新进入企业和在位企业双重视角探讨银行业竞争影响企业创新产出的作用途径。检验发现,银行业竞争提高条件下,更多的高效率企业进入创新部门,更多的高效率在位企业增加创新投入,且上述影响在非国有企业和中小企业中更为明显。本文检验结果显示,银行业竞争能提高银行对高效率企业的信贷支持,优化企业之间创新资源配置,并通过引导高效率非国有企业和中小企业增加创新投入而推动整体层面的创新产出。本文拓展了银行业竞争对企业创新的微观影响研究,为制定基于创新驱动的金融发展政策提供新思路。     

Short-selling restrictions and firms’ environment responsibility

We examine the effect of short selling on firms’ environmental pollution control behavior. Using novel data from Chinese listed firms, we demonstrate that when the short selling of stocks is permitted, the respective firms invest more in pollution protection. Consequently, ex ante threats to short selling could potentially explain firms’ investment in pollution protection. In contrast, we do not find a positive relation between margin trading and firms’ pollution protection expenses. We further discover that the effect of short selling is more pronounced in firms with lower institutional ownership and lower market competition. These findings shed light on the role of short sales in pollution abatement.     

事实汇率制度选择、企业生产率与对外直接投资

企业“走出去”和汇率制度安排灵活化是中国参与全球经济的两大典型特征,本文从企业异质性视角讨论了双边事实汇率制度选择对企业对外直接投资的影响效应。理论层面上,本文将Gali and Monacelli(2005)的一般均衡框架拓展为两国模型,发现双边固定汇率制度降低了企业进入东道国开展OFDI活动的生产率阈值,提高了企业对外直接投资倾向。同时,尽管企业生产率的提升能够促进企业对外直接投资活动,但其促进力度明显不及双边事实固定汇率制度安排。实证层面上,本文采用了中国商务部公布的2000-2013年《境外投资企业(机构)名录》等微观企业数据,发现双边事实固定汇率制度能使企业进行OFDI概率平均提高0.8%~55.4%。考虑其他异质性因素及内生性问题后,本文主要结论依然稳健。     

Peer effects in corporate advertisement expenditure: Evidence from China

This study investigates whether industry peers affect focal firms’ advertising expenditure decisions and further explores the mechanisms and economic consequences of such effects. We find that peer firms have a significantly positive influence on the focal firm’s advertising expenditure. The results hold after a series of robustness tests. Additionally, the peer effects in advertising expenditure are more salient in industries with intense competition; and when economic policy uncertainty and demand uncertainty is higher. Interestingly, our results show that followers mimic the advertising expenditure of industry leaders, while leaders also react to followers’ advertising expenditure. We also find that the peer effects in advertising expenditure improve firms’ sales and market value. Our study contributes to a better understanding of peer effects on corporate decisions.