ON THE TAXATION OF DURABLE GOODS

This article proposes a dynamic Mirrleesian theory of commodity taxation in the presence of durable goods. A uniform taxation across all goods is suboptimal even when the consumption preferences are separable from labor. If the consumption utility function is strictly concave and durable stocks are adjustable without friction, durable investment should be taxed at a higher rate than the purchase of nondurable goods. With adjustment frictions, the wedge on durable investment depends on substitution effects between durable and nondurable consumption and can be positive or negative. An application suggests that housing investment should face higher tax rates than regular consumption.     

ON THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

The multiplier effects resulting from an isolated increase in the level of public consumption within different public branches are investigated and the policy implications are discussed. The article begins with a theorethical analysis which shows why and in which ways these multipliers can be expected to differ between public branches. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is given, based on simulations with an econometric model of the Swedish economy. In this model the public activities are divided into 13 different public branches. The effects of an increase in public consumption on employment, imports and private consumption are found to differ considerably depending on which branch of the public sector is expanded. Some implications for short run stabilization policy are discussed. The article ends with a special analysis of the implications for a medium term planning problem: the trade off between private and public consumption growth. This analysis throws new light on the old topic "private or public consumption". In an economy with highly differentiated production in the public sector the trade-off is shown not to be unique. The sacrifice of private consumption growth corresponding to a given growth of public consumption expenditures will vary considerably according to the distribution of the public consumption growth within the different branches of the public sector.     

经济剩余来源新解

经济剩余是经济活动成果中扣除成本消耗以外的所有剩余。自然力的无偿提供、人类智力对自然力的深入挖掘和生产要素间的协同与合作是经济剩余的三个来源。对经济剩余来源的分析,可以帮助我们寻找有效提高经济剩余的途径;也为建立更合理的分配制度提供理论依据。     

中国农民工消费市场解读——金字塔底层的财富

理解、把握并满足中国农民工消费市场的需求对于经济发展方式的转变、商业模式的创新、贫困人口的消除、城乡二元结构的缓解都具有重要意义。本文认为,农民工消费决定于"经济效应"和"身份效应"两种机制,前者主要影响他们的私人消费,后者则影响他们的集体消费或福利消费状况。依据2010年上海农民工的调查情况,笔者描述了该消费市场的人群特征、消费结构和消费种类,并总结出相应的消费特征。文章最后指出商业机构应该重视这些金字塔底层的消费者和规模巨大的财富。     

DOES CONSUMPTION ENTAIL INCOME? IMPLICATIONS OF THE DUAL CLASSIFICATION OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FOR THE INCOME SIDE OF THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

In the future revision of the SNA the dual classification of flows in the national accounts will gain some importance with respect to consumption expenditures. It is likely that outlays of different institutions for consumption are added to form a new aggregate “individual consumption.” The question is whether this development requires an adjustment on the income side of the household accounts. In order to find an answer it is first necessary to scrutinize the concept of disposable income in its standard form, and in its different variations. The result is a distinction between “disposable income in the strict sense” and “income after distribution,” where the standard definition actually realizes the latter concept. It is then shown that the dual structure of the accounts does not permit the adding of individual consumption to saving of households so that the concept of enlarged income defeats its purpose.     

西安城镇居民旅游消费行为调查分析

在旅游界,对国内游客的消费行为研究还很少。根据一手的调查资料,分析了西安市城镇居民的旅游消费行为的一些基本特征。在此基础上,为西安市旅游企业如何抓住国内旅游迅速发展的机遇指明了方向。     

中国电商经济发展的消费效应研究*

本文基于中国2002—2013年的省级面板数据建立了动态面板模型,利用系统广义矩估计方法（SYS—GMM）考察了电商经济发展的消费效应。研究发现：我国电商经济发展显著提高了总体消费规模,促进了跨区域的消费集聚,拉大了城乡消费差距,且这种消费差距效应可以通过扩大城乡收入差距这一机制实现。上述三大消费效应均表现出一定的地区异质性,在中西部地区影响更大。本文系统地考察了电商经济发展的消费效应,尤其体现在消费集聚效应和城乡消费差距效应两个方面。本文的研究结论为新常态下促进消费增长识别到另一条路径——发展电商经济释放消费潜力,为打造区域性电商消费集聚中心提供了经验证据,明确了电商经济收益共享的推进方向,以实现城乡居民消费差距收敛。     

THE PRELIMINARY AND FINAL FIGURES OF THE DANISH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper compares preliminary estimates (available about four months after the close of the period to which they refer) with final estimates (available three years after the close of the period) for certain national accounting aggregates and some of their major components. It concludes that preliminary estimates are consistently low for gross domestic product, exports, and public consumption, whereas imports, private consumption, and gross capital formation may be either low or high. The best early estimates, in the sense of closest to the final figures, are those for gross domestic product, imports, and exports.     

SOME PROBLEMS OF THE MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION IN HUNGARY

Hungary has a relatively long tradition with the "Total Consumption of the Population" (TCP); this category has been regularly compiled and published in Hungarian statistics since the early sixties. The article summarises the experiences with this concept and discusses a number of open questions both of national and international interest.
One of these questions relates to the treatment of subsidies. On one hand it can be argued that subsidised prices are intermediate cases between the full price and free of charge cases and therefore the subsidy should be included in TCP; on the other hand, however, subsidies can also be interpreted as negative indirect taxes and therefore there is no reason for their inclusion. The article discusses both the arguments for and against the inclusion of subsidies in TCP.
Another issue is the problem of valuing consumption from own agricultural production, where the existing international recommendations—valuation at producer prices—may be questioned.
There are other parts of non-marketed consumption valuation of which causes several serious problems. In Hungary a special problem appears with regard to the services of owner-occupied dwellings. In the case of valuation of services provided by producers of government there are unsolved questions, too, where the formal following of the international recommendations does not give a fully acceptable solution.
The authors agree with those who think that it is necessary to make a distinction between consumption and consumption expenditure and to include the fringe benefits provided by enterprises in TCP.     

中国居民物质性消费与收入关系及其空间特征

对1993年起中国开始步入过剩经济时代进行了实证分析，给出了沿海与内地城镇及农村居民物质性消费与收入的恩格尔函数及其特征；在收入－消费关系空间特征分析的基础上，指出居民消费倾向内地高于沿海，内地城镇高于农村。最后从居民物质性消费与收入关系及空间特征角度讨论了现阶段加速中西部地区发展的必要性与合理性。     

EVALUATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE*

This article evaluates the distribution of public expenditure on subsidized goods and services over income categories. It is argued that undifferentiated application of usual measures of dispersion must be rejected when judging the distribution of these expenditures, because there are hardly any subsidized goods and services for which the government aims at equal consumption. Such an application requires a normative distribution of expenditure. The normative distribution of expenditure is derived from a normative distribution of consumption and the distribution of normative charges. Central elements are needs of consumers and their financial capacity. The normative distribution of consumption is based on government intentions with respect to the goods and services under consideration.     

论全面禁止烟草广告政策的无效性

世界各地都有相应的法律控制香烟的消费,其中重要的手段就是全面禁止烟草广告。本文从成本收益的角度分析了全面禁止烟草广告政策的无效性,并对在社会上如何开展禁烟工作提出了一些意见。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF REAL INCOME

This paper is about the theory of the measurement of real income. By "theory of measurement" I mean the characterization of statistical terms as variables in a model, just as real consumption is characterized as an indicator of utility and the consumer price index is characterized as the cost of attaining a given level of utility in the economic theory of index numbers developed by Konus, Frisch and others half a century ago. I identify five logically distinct and internally-consistent concepts of real income: maximum sustainable consumption, consumption plus the output of new capital goods, consumption plus the increase in the capital stock where capital can be measured in two quite separate ways, and the sum of actual consumption and consumption forgone in the investment process. The last of these concepts is the most appropriate as a guide to producing long time series of real income for measuring a country's rate of economic growth.     

我国居民消费波动的影响因素研究

基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术对我国居民人均消费的影响因素进行实证分析,发现我国居民人均收入增长对人均消费增长贡献最大,固定资产投资增长和人均储蓄存款增长对我国居民人均消费增长率也有比较大的贡献。格兰杰因果检验证实了这一结论。我国固定资产投资增长与居民人均收入增长存在双向的格兰杰因果关系;同时人均消费增长也对我国居民人均收入增长有着微弱的影响。     

THE SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS

In both political discussions and scientific literature the income distribution has come to occupy a central position for the consideration of social welfare and economic equalization. It has been assumed that an individual's income reflects his consumption opportunities and therefore his standard of living or economic welfare. The thesis of this paper is, however, that there are reasons for being quite pessimistic about drawing meaningful conclusions from income distribution data. As illustrated by the use of Swedish data, the distribution of income gives an extremely incomplete picture of the distribution of consumption for a wide variety of definitional and statistical reasons. The distribution of consumption, furthermore, cannot be transformed into a corresponding distribution of welfare, since there is no well defined concept of welfare. The treatment of public consumption in empirical analysis of the distribution of welfare also raises problems. The paper closes with the presentation of the conceptual basis for an alternative to the traditional method of analyzing the distribution of income.     

消费传导视角下资产 价格对物价水平的影响

本文在生命周期-持久收入（LC PIH）模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响，发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为，进而影响物价水平。在此基础上，本文运用ARDL UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响，实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系，房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素，但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。     

基于普惠金融发展的家庭网络消费行为研究*

网络消费作为一种新型消费业态和模式，已成为扩大内需的新力量。本文应用Probit模型及处理效应等方法，在普惠金融发展视角下研究了家庭的网络消费行为。结果显示，普惠金融发展显著正向地提升了网络消费家庭的比例和频率，且经过渐进的增长，网络消费家庭的总消费水平更高、消费结构较优，在城镇家庭里更明显。而通过便利支付、缓解流动性约束、提高家庭收入三种机制，普惠金融发展还提升了这些家庭的网络消费支出额。异质性分析也得出了一系列丰富的结论。加深家庭金融参与程度，加快地区数字普惠金融的发展，帮助老年群体、低收入群体迈过数字鸿沟，能更大程度上普及网络消费，进一步扩大内需。     

湖南省旅游消费区类型及其主控因子

旅游区具有多重属性,消费特征是特别重要的属性之一.通过长沙市居民旅游消费的调查获得基础数据,从消费地、消费人群、消费能力、消费水平、消费结构和消费愿望对湖南省主要旅游区进行多重考察.归纳出六大旅游消费区类型:旅游热区、旅游次热区、待发展区、文化旅游区、近距离休闲区Ⅰ和休闲区Ⅱ,总结出各类消费区消费主控因子并对比分析了各区消费结构,为深入研究旅游区消费问题提供了思路,为湖南省旅游业发展提出了建议.     

基于面板协整的地方政府支出与居民消费关系的实证检验

通过构建政府支出与居民消费跨期替代模型,并利用1990—2005年27个省(市、自治区)相关数据进行面板协整检验和完全修正普通最小二乘估计,我们可以看到,中国地方政府支出与居民消费呈现较弱的互补关系。因此,需要改变地方政府的投资结构,提高政府支出的消费效应。     

新发展格局构建下的高质量发展：社会再生产视角*

高质量发展是以满足人民美好生活需要为最终目的。当前，我国高质量发展进入了以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。需要是与满足需要的手段一同发展的，为此本文结合马克思需要理论与社会再生产理论，提出社会需要与满足社会需要的生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节协同发展是我国高质量发展的应有之义。同时，在厘清生产、分配、交换、消费的本质关系基础上，从社会再生产的四个环节提出实践路径。具体而言：应提高供给质量，增强供给效率，形成供给新动力；构筑合理的初次分配、公平的再分配，规范分配秩序；畅通供需匹配渠道，提升商业服务质量，推进贸易强国建设；树立理性消费观念，推动消费结构升级，营造良好消费环境；促进国内市场国际化、国内市场与国际市场高度融合,形成国际竞争新优势。