外汇存款激增原因及对宏观金融管理的影响

今年以来,全国外汇存款出现了迅猛增长,引起了多方关注。根据对泰州市的典型调查,发现主要是套利因素所致,且随之出现外汇利率大幅上行、存贷利率倒挂、贷存比大幅下降和套利现象盛行等异常现象,这对我国的国际收支平衡、信贷资源配置效率、货币供应、利率市场化建设以及外汇管理均带来一定影响。为此,文章从提高监管针对性、加强跨境代付融资监管和通过价格杠杆合理引导市场竞争等方面就促进市场健康发展提出政策建议。     

农村信用社贷款利率定价面临的挑战与对策

本文以广西北海市农村信用社为例,将其贷款利率水平与全国金融机构的贷款利率水平进行比较.结论表明,农村信用社与其他金融机构的贷款利率之间是一种负相关关系,两者存在比较稳定的竞争状态.但由于农村信用社贷款利率定价受到内外部因素的制约,面对其他金融机构进入农村信贷市场的竞争,以高利率为支撑的农村信用社难以适应利率完全市场化的...     

Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?

How will banks evolve as competition increases from other banks and from the capital market? Will banks become more like capital market underwriters and offer passive transaction loans or return to their roots as relationship lending experts? These are the questions we address. Our key result is that as interbank competition increases, banks make more relationship loans, but each has lower added value for borrowers. Capital market competition reduces relationship lending (and bank lending shrinks), but each relationship loan has greater added value for borrowers. In both cases, welfare increases for some borrowers but not necessarily for all.     

Distortions in Real Estate Transactions with Out-of-State Participants

Using the MLS and the land registration data from Indiana, this paper identifies and explains price distortions associated with out-of-state sellers and buyers in the housing market. We find that out-of-state buyers pay 20.4% higher prices than local buyers, and the premium is fully explained by the former purchasing larger homes than the latter. On the other hand, out-of-state sellers receive a 21.2% price discount, among which 9.3% is attributable to differences in transactional characteristics, 3.2% is explained by increased motivation and weak bargaining power of out-of-state sellers, and 1.5% is due to differences in agent characteristics and behaviours. The remaining 7.2% discount varies systematically with the informational disadvantage of out-of-state sellers, and with the market condition. Our results are robust to model misspecification.     

Credit Scoring and the Availability of Small Business Credit in Low‐ and Moderate‐Income Areas

This paper estimates that credit scoring is associated with about a $3,900 increase in small business lending per sample banking organization, per low‐ and moderate‐income (LMI) area served, and this effect is roughly equivalent to that estimated for higher‐income areas. For our sample, this corresponds to a $536 million increase in small business credit in LMI areas in 1997 than otherwise would have been the case. This effect appears to be driven by increased out‐of‐market lending by banking organizations, as in‐market lending generally declines. Overall, it does not appear that credit scoring has a disparate impact on LMI areas.     

我国城镇化、工业化和金融发展的相互关系研究

本文基于协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解,利用我国1992—2012年时间序列数据,对我国城镇化、工业化和金融发展之间的相互关系进行研究。结果显示:在研究区间内,我国城镇化领先于工业化,符合钱—塞的"发展模型"理论;资本市场的发展和金融规模的扩大并没有对城镇化和工业化起到应有的促进作用;在长期内,资本市场和存贷比对城镇化影响显著,城镇化和金融发展对工业化影响显著。本文根据研究结果,提出了相关政策建议。     

The Neighborhood Distribution of Subprime Mortgage Lending

Subprime lending in the residential mortgage market, characterized by relatively high credit risk and interest rates or fees, has developed over the past decade into a prominent segment of the market (Temkin, 2000). Recent research indicates that there is geographical concentration of subprime mortgages in Census tracts where there are high concentrations of low-income and minority households. The growth in subprime lending represents an expansion in the supply of mortgage credit among households who do not meet prime market underwriting standards. Nonetheless, its apparent concentration in minority and lower income neighborhoods has generated concerns that these households may not be obtaining equal opportunity in the prime mortgage market. Such lending may undermine revitalization to the extent that it is associated with so-called predatory practices.     

Credit information,consolidation and credit market performance: Bank-level evidence from developing countries

Paying particular attention to the degree of banking market concentration in developing countries, this paper examines the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. Using bank-level data from African countries over the period 2004 to 2009 and a dynamic two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, it is found that credit information sharing increases bank lending. The degree of banking market concentration moderates the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. The results are robust to controlling for possible interactions between credit information sharing and governance.     

Changes in Non-Local Lending to Small Business

In this paper, I use recently collected Community Reinvestment Act loan data to examine how small business lending in local geographic areas (defined as markets) by lenders not physically located in those areas changed between 1996 and 2001. The results show that the importance of outside lending increased substantially over this period when measured in terms of the number of loans rather than the dollar volume of loans. The levels and rates of growth in out-of-market lending are more modest if the share of out-of-market lending is expressed in dollar volumes and almost insubstantial if organizations that engage in substantial credit card lending are excluded as out-of-market lenders. Using a fixed-effects model and an extensive panel data set, I find that the share of outside lending into local geographic markets is positively associated with local market concentration and the average wage of tellers in the market, consistent with the hypothesis that outside loans are to some degree substitutes for in-market loans.     

Federal Home Loan Bank Lending to Community Banks: Are Targeted Subsidies Desirable?

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 amended the lending authority of the Federal Home Loan Banks to include advances secured by small enterprise loans of community financial institutions. Three reasons for the extension of this selective credit subsidy to community banks and thrifts are examined, including the possible need to: subsidize community depository institutions, stabilize the Federal Home Loan Banks, and address a market failure in rural markets for small enterprise loans. We empirically investigate whether funding constraints impact the small-business lending decision by rural community banks. We estimate static and dynamic models of small-business lending by community banks. The data reject the hypothesis that access to increased funds will increase the amount of small-business loans made by community banks.     

Branching,lending and competition in Italian banking

With the liberalization of legal barriers to the opening of bank branches in 1990, both market structure and competitive conditions in Italy changed profoundly as banks expanded their branching networks. This paper provides novel empirical evidence on how changes of the branch network structure at the province level affect the performance and lending activity of banks across the period 1993–2011. In particular, we adopt two modes of analysis. The first focuses on the impact of diversification strategies on performance, lending and funding strategies at the province level. The second one examines how the increase of big banks' local presence affects single-market bank performance and lending strategies. Our results show that geographical diversification strategies can reduce performance, the adjusted Lerner Index of banks and lending activities, but increase the Lerner Index in deposit markets. Furthermore, we find that the expansion of branches by large-medium sized banks in concentrated markets can reduce the Lerner Index for the deposit market and the amount of loans offered by single-market banks.     

完善我国放贷人法律规制的路径选择

放贷人作为民间借贷的重要业务主体,以法律形式对其规制将使民间借贷的合法性得以确定,对解决中小企业融资困境与发展农村经济有着极其重要的意义。本文主要采用比较和规范分析的研究方法,通过国外（地区）放贷人的相关立法经验与特点的研习,并在此基础上分析我国放贷人立法之不足,最终从市场准入、经营机制、监管框架与借款人利益保护等方面提出完善我国放贷人法律规制的路径和制度。     

高管减持如何影响投资者预期?——基于超额融券的经验证据

随着我国融资融券业务逐步扩容,投资者向证券公司融券卖出的卖空交易成为市场消化负面信息的重要机制。本文以高管减持事件窗口期的超额融券量为研究对象,采用事件研究法考察我国企业高管减持所任职公司股票对市场预期的影响。实证结果表明,相比估计期,高管减持窗口期超额融券量显著增长,并且减持比例越高或者减持金额越大,超额融券量越高,表明高管减持显著降低了外部投资者对公司股票的价值预期。进一步研究显示,良好的信息透明度能够显著降低高管减持对超额融券量的正向影响。本文用超额融券量直观地度量投资者预期变化,丰富和发展了高管减持经济后果的研究,对规范我国上市公司高管减持行为及监管部门完善相关监管规定具有启示意义。     

基于“三农”视角的农村信贷配给分析与对策选择

在目前的农村信贷市场上,以农村信用社为主的正规金融和私人借贷等非正规金融构成了信贷的供给方。但由于种种原因,作为支农主力军的农村信用社在担负起支农、兴农责任时,尚有部分保留,而非正规金融由于"先天不足",其借贷活动的规范仍需长期的政策引导与市场监管,这就导致了"涉农贷款难"。为此,本文从"三农"的角度,用微观经济学中的相关理论对当前农村信贷配给中存在的问题进行分析,并就解决"涉农贷款难"提出了相应的政策建议。     

Credit risk assessment in real estate investment trusts: A perspective on blockholding and lending networks

This study assesses the credit risk of Japan's real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) in two related markets during the fiscal years 2008–2017. The first J-REIT market involves blockholders, while the second is a lending market of institutions, i.e., banks and insurers. J-REITs are corporation type of closed-end funds listed on the stock exchange and thus, has corporate credit risk. Consequently, a J-REIT's financial variables and its sponsor have a substantial effect on the J-REIT's credit risk. A sponsor's probability of default is a leading indicator of the J-REIT's default and double default probability acts as a coincident indicator of default. Network analysis indicates that some network centralities are proxies for funding liquidity via blockholding and lending networks. Rather than increases in other centralities, an increase in the degree of lending to a J-REIT explains a decrease in the issued J-REIT's credit risk.     

Explicit deposit insurance design: International effects on bank lending during the global financial crisis✰

Studies find that during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, loan spreads rose and corporate lending tightened, especially for foreign borrowers (a flight-home effect). We find that banks in countries with explicit deposit insurance (DI) made smaller reductions in total lending and foreign lending, experienced smaller increases in loan spreads, and had quicker post-crisis recoveries. These effects are more pronounced for banks heavily relying on deposit funding. Evidence also reveals that more generous or credible DI design is associated with a stronger stabilization effect on bank lending during the crisis, confirmed by the difference-in-differences analysis based on expansion of DI coverage during the crisis. The stabilization effect is robust to the use of country-specific crisis measures and control of temporary government guarantees.     

Price Run-up in Housing Markets,Access to Bank Lending and House Prices in Korea

This paper studies the causal relationship between house prices and the access to bank lending in Kangnam, the hottest submarket in Seoul and four ‘cold’ markets which have shown relatively modest price increases. In response to the rapid escalation of house prices in Seoul, primarily in Kangnam in recent years, the Korean government implemented a number of policies to stabilize house prices. In particular, it introduced more strict limits on loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio as part of the mortgage loan qualification process in order to restrict the availability of bank lending for the housing market. The short-run influence of the bank lending on the apartment prices is clearly present in ‘cold’ markets, while it is not in Kangnam, the ‘hot’ market, even though the long-run influence is stronger in Kangnam than in the other markets. This result holds for the entire sample period (1999–2006) as well as for the subperiods before and after the introduction of lending restrictions in August, 2005. It also holds for Kangnam and Kangbuk for an extended period of 1988 to 2006. Our results suggest that in the short run the lending restriction may cause a disruption in untargeted housing markets while it has little influence on the apartment prices in the targeted market. We also find that banks have adjusted the bank lending in response to changes in the house prices in Kangnam as well as in the other markets.     

我国第三部门与农村公共产品供给——以医疗卫生供给为研究视域

长期以来,由于我国在公共产品供给上实行＂二元制＂,我国的农村公共产品供给一直处于被边缘化的弱势地位。面对市场经济、多元治理的必然趋势,市场和政府在公共产品供给中的缺陷日益暴露,第三部门应运而生,发挥着重要的作用。但是我国第三部门在农村医疗卫生公共产品供给中面临诸多问题,因此要促进非政府组织对农村医疗卫生公共产品的供给,建立多主体供给体系;理顺非政府组织与政府的关系,承接部分农村管理职能;加强非政府组织自身建设,健全内部管理机制。     

农村合作金融结构中间业务发展的障碍与对策

农村金融市场存在着中间业务的需求,而农村合作金融结构独立开发中间业务存在着人才不足、网络技术落后等诸多能力的障碍与不足。在拥有市场资源优势的基础上,农村合作金融结构可以与大中型银行、保险公司以及基金公司等合作伙伴合作发展中间业务。农村合作金融结构需要把握目标客户的金融需求,熟悉中间业务产品,努力成为农村金融服务专家。     

Some consequences of banks' LDC loans: A note

The realized returns on LDC loans made prior to 1980 and hypothetically sold at (below par) secondary market prices in either 1986, when a secondary market first began, or, say, in 1989 are moderately positive. The realized risk-adjusted returns to investors on a portfolio of large LDC lending bank stocks are unmistakenly lower than the return on a broad market index, though they are not significantly so. Similarly, although the difference is not statistically significant, the average realized return on LDC lending banks' stocks is well below that of a portfolio of non-LDC lending banks. The article concludes that while shareholders suffered economic losses as a result of LDC lending activity, these losses were not quantitatively large.