对国有银行不良贷款问题的几点认识

对国有银行不良贷款问题的几点认识薛峰如何化解国有银行当前存在的大量存量不良贷款，进一步防范新的增量不良贷款发生，减少和降低金融风险，已经成为深化经济金融体制改革，建立社会主义市场经济体制的一个重大问题，也是推进国有银行转变机制，实现商业化经营的重要条...     

中国银行业不良资产与中国金融体系的未来

本文针对中国银行业的不良资产是否会对中国金融体系构成威胁的问题，提出了如下观点：中国银行业的不良资产主要是政策性贷款，是在经济体制转型中逐渐形成的，其形成原因主要是制度原因；不良贷款的处置损失将在未来由国家财政、中央银行和国有银行之间分担，未来分担损失降低了对当前金融体系的冲击；在对中日两国银行不良贷款处置问题进行比较后，发现中国由于拥有国家政府担任主导者和终极责任承担者的角色，与日本相比，中国不良资产的处置进程迅速并且前景甚佳；随着中国的经济改革进程，中国人民的财富安全性和经济安全性在不断提高，这将有助于中国金融体系的稳定和中国经济的长期增长。     

国有商业银行信贷资产风险:增量防范与存量化解

金融危机的发生实际上是经济结构中潜在的风险与矛盾的激化。尤其是银行业积累的巨额不良债权成为危机的重要根源之一。回眸正向市场经济体制转轨的中国，近年来国有银行的不良贷款①也呈现出增速快、存量大的趋势。据有关资料披露，１９９０年末，四大国有银行的不良贷款...     

宏观调控下的国有银行的风险管理探究

随着我国社会主义市场经济的不断发展,在尊重市场经济规律的同时,采取适度的宏观调控更有利于经济的发展。近年来国家针对经济过热的现象采取了宏观调控政策,政策的实施给我国国有银行带来了影响,增加了银行的风险。针对这些风险本文分别从短期和长期两个方面提出风险管理的措施,期望对国有银行风险管理有一定的帮助。     

对中国国有银行引入境外战略投资者路径选择的思考

由于国有银行在中国国有企业改革中承担着政策性负担任务,导致其产生大量的不良贷款,使其不适应在中国金融逐渐开放条件下的发展,必须对其进行改革。其中一个办法就是引进战略投资者来参与国有银行的公司治理和风险管理。从外部环境、监管层、银行自身和战略投资者的优势四个方面阐述国有银行引入战略投资者的原因。面对境外战略投资者的＂减持风暴＂对中国国有银行的影响,提出如何慎重地引进对境外战略投资者、如何对引入机制进行改革以及境外战略投资者如何退出等对策。     

立足地方经济 服务中小企业——温岭农村合作银行全力支持中小企业发展

浙江温岭农村合作银行紧紧把握“以市场为导向、立足三农、服务县域经济”的市场定位，不断调整和优化信贷结构，实现了各项业务的稳健高效发展。到今年6月末，全行各项存款余额达58．06亿元，较年初增加6．91亿元，增长13．51％；各项贷款余额达43．63亿元，比年初增加3．97亿元，增长10．01％，其中发放中小企业生产性流动资金贷款余额23．42亿元；较年初增加1．8亿元；不良贷款率1.17％（五级分类2．41％），较年初下降0．37个百分点，实现了增加投放、优化结构、提高质量的工作目标，促进了农村经济和农村合作银行的共同发展。     

国有商业银行应尽快建立内控制度与质量管理体系的建议

一、“入世”后国有银行面临的冲击。我国加入世贸组织之后,外资银行已逐步随大批外资企业特别是大型跨国公司纷至沓来,对我国企业已形成较大冲击,不可避免地会对我国银行的客户结构逐渐产生重大影响。外资银行的介入对国内银行的激励机制、分配机制、以处理巨额不良贷款为核心的风险管理机制和以产权明晰为基础的发展机制等方面都将形成一种挑战,国有银行如果不加快发展进程,将面临人才流失和风险累积的巨大压力,从而影响自身的发展。     

试论国有商业银行信贷风险的防范对策

防范和化解信贷风险是商业银行急需解决的重大问题。我国国有商业银行存在不良信贷资产状况比较严重，不良贷款率偏高，不良贷款余额较大，影响我国的金融安全和经济安全。产权制度改革对化解和防范信贷风险具有重要作用，对我国金融和经济持续稳定发展具有重大意义。     

我国国有商业银行风险与资本监管实证研究

本文通过对我国国有商业银行2004年～2010年的相关财务数据进行分析，得出国有银行整体的风险和资本监管的变动趋势，同时利用联立方程模型，发现对于不同银行，盈利水平，上期资本充足率及上期不良贷款率对资本和风险的变动的影响是不相同的，通过对比分析发现不同银行资本监管与银行风险之间的关系。     

应当加强对农村信用社的金融监管

随着经济体制改革和金融体制改革的进一步深化，国有商业银行占绝对主导地位的格局已经打破，非银行金融机构，特别是农村信用社业务发展迅猛，并在金融业中占有较大的份额，但不良贷款也在逐年增加，据资料统计，部分农村信用社不良贷款高达８０％。显然，如不加强对农村...     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.